X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

Let the Kids Play - Why You Should Pick Rookie RBs Over Vets in 2017

The 2017 NFL Draft’s running back class was one of the most highly touted in recent memory. With eight players being drafted in the first three rounds, this class has a robust investment and is very likely to generate a number of immediate impact players.

My aim in this article is to convince you that you should be thinking of drafting young, instead of spending higher picks on vets at the running back position.

Note: ADP data taken from FantasyPros

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2024:

 

Don't Be Scared

Age is not a barrier for running backs the way it is for all other offensive positions. Research shows that running backs hit the apex of their production at age 24 with 4.41 yards per carry (2), and actually have a large bump comparatively at age 21; this has been the standard for at least the last five years,.

Further, there is an enormous drop-off in production for most running backs after the age of 28. A few of the running backs we’ll be talking about today have passed that cliff age. When you choose from the rookie running backs, you are hedging your bets on two fronts. First, you’re betting on youth, as well as the burst, health and excitement that come with it. Second, you’re getting a comparable value, by drafting players who have been drafted to be lead backs at a cheaper draft price, due to their NFL inexperience.

This looks to be an amazing class of running backs. Christian McCaffrey broke Barry Sanders’s all-purpose yards record, while a player like Joe Mixon was so well-regarded, that even with a highly-publicized assault on his record, he didn’t even pass the mid second round. The NFL believes in these players, and so should you.

I recognize that drafting a rookie can be frightening, as you haven’t seen them play in the NFL. The players are bigger, faster, and better coached; it’s only human to want to see proven production before investing. The good news is, every year for the last three years there have been at least two immediate fantasy-viable players in each rookie class.

Last year, we saw Zeke Elliott, and Jordan Howard breakout, with Derrick Henry being a serviceable starter. While in 2015 it was David Johnson, Todd Gurley, Jeremy Langford, and Tevin Coleman; and back in 2014, it was Jeremy Hill, Carlos Hyde, and Devonta Freeman. The point is, every year the investment comes to roost for players.

Since 2006, a clear majority of first round running backs have excelled their first year; even Trent Richardson played exceptionally well his first year where he racked up 1,317 scrimmage yards with 12 TDs. It would become obvious that age was playing to his benefit that year. For re-draft formats, first round running backs are a solid bet, with the risk already placed into their ADP. The point of all of this is to prove to you, dear reader, that you can feel confident investing in the upside of a player that you believe in.

 

The Value of Rookie Running Backs

Let’s talk about the value that you’ll be reaping this year by drafting players like Christian McCaffrey (ADP 32), Joe Mixon (ADP 48.5), Dalvin Cook (ADP 61), Kareem Hunt (ADP 117), Alvin Kamara (ADP 157), or D’Onta Foreman (ADP 187).

Each of the running backs mentioned here has a clear path to the starting job, and should be expecting to get a legitimate share of the reps by the time week six rolls around. Although each of these options has questions associated with them, so do the players at comparable ADP.

Here are the running backs who are going in the third, fourth, and fifth rounds currently: Carlos Hyde (35.5), Isaiah Crowell (36) Spencer Ware (44.5) Adrian Peterson (52) Eddie Lacy (52.5) Ty Montgomery (52.5) C.J. Anderson (54.5). The problems of time-share, injury, fit-to- system, and ability to be consistent in the NFL plague every one of these veteran RBs. Age kills running back production, so, instead of taking two running backs to start your draft, one would be best suited to take one of the big three running backs, if at all possible; then, waiting until you can pick a cheaper rookie later in the draft. Let other people take players like LeSean McCoy (ADP 7.5), who will be 29 this year, or Marshawn Lynch (ADP 19.5), who’s currently 31, and pick up value at the WR position.

It is the depth of your roster that allows you to succeed far into the season. Depth allows you to fight through injuries, and trade if necessary. We all like to make that major push for the marquee players near the end of the year, and drafting young allows you to do that. If you adopt the strategy of picking up a few rookie RBs, one is more than likely to hit. If you get one of the cheap rookies that performs like Gurley in 2015 or Jordan Howard in 2016, your flexibility in how you approach the end of the season skyrockets. The payout is huge, while the risk is mitigated by the fear that rookies can’t produce.

Hopefully I’ve convinced you that not only is taking a rookie this year a good idea, but even if you’re wrong it won’t kill you. This strategy allows you to draft reliable first and second round players that you’re most certain will succeed next year, while simultaneously picking players who have the highest unknown upside in the league. This is a recipe for fantasy success.

 

More 2017 Fantasy Football & ADP Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Weekly Rankings
Compare Any Players
Stats & Leaders
Starts and Sit
Daily Fantasy
Who To Pickup
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Zhang Mingyang26 mins ago

Set For His Second UFC Fight
Daniel Jones36 mins ago

Giants Release Daniel Jones
Ozzy Diaz40 mins ago

An Underdog At UFC Macau
San Francisco 49ers3 hours ago

Nick Bosa "Questionable At Best" For Week 12
MacKenzie Weegar3 hours ago

Notches Three Assists Against Rangers
Macklin Celebrini3 hours ago

Tallies Two Assists In Thursday's Loss
Nikita Kucherov4 hours ago

Comes Up With Three Assists Versus Blue Jackets
Sean Monahan4 hours ago

Finishes Thursday's Win With Four Points
Zach Werenski4 hours ago

Enjoys Career Night With Five Points Against Lightning
Jack Hughes4 hours ago

Posts Three Assists Versus Hurricanes
Joonas Korpisalo4 hours ago

Records 21-Save Shutout Versus Utah
Jerry Jeudy7 hours ago

Leads Browns In Receiving In Week 12 Win
Nick Chubb7 hours ago

Scores Two TDs In Thursday Night Win Over Pittsburgh
Cleveland Browns11 hours ago

Kevin Stefanski, Andrew Berry Likely Returning To Browns In 2025
Deshaun Watson12 hours ago

Likely To Remain With Browns, Could Face Competition
Cedric Tillman12 hours ago

Enters Concussion Protocol
Cedric Tillman13 hours ago

Suffers Head Injury On Thursday Night
Wendell Carter Jr.14 hours ago

Out Against Lakers
Anthony Davis15 hours ago

Available Versus Magic On Thursday
Rui Hachimura15 hours ago

Unavailable Thursday
Carlos Ulberg15 hours ago

Looking To Cement Himself As A Title Contender At UFC Macau
Volkan Oezdemir15 hours ago

Eyes Another Knockout At UFC Macau
Gabriella Fernandes15 hours ago

A Big Underdog At UFC Macau
MMA16 hours ago

Cong Wang Puts Undefeated Record On The Line At UFC Macau
Deiveson Figueiredo16 hours ago

Looks To Extend Win Streak At UFC Macau
Petr Yan16 hours ago

A Favorite At UFC Macau
Yves Missi16 hours ago

Listed As Questionable For Friday
CJ McCollum16 hours ago

Not Likely To Play Friday
Alexander Mattison16 hours ago

Zamir White Miss Practice Again
Brandon Ingram17 hours ago

Questionable For Friday
Shohei Ohtani17 hours ago

Named National League MVP In 2024
Aaron Judge17 hours ago

Wins American League MVP Award
Ja'Kobe Walter17 hours ago

Ready To Go Thursday
Donte DiVincenzo17 hours ago

Available Thursday
Mike Conley17 hours ago

Will Not Play Thursday
Jordan Clarkson17 hours ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Ausar Thompson17 hours ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Zach Collins17 hours ago

Cleared To Play Thursday
Domantas Sabonis17 hours ago

Gets Through Full Practice
Chris Paul17 hours ago

Good To Go Thursday
Brock Purdy18 hours ago

Limited Again On Thursday
Malik Monk18 hours ago

Making Progress
George Kittle18 hours ago

Limited Again On Thursday
Tre Mann18 hours ago

Good To Go On Thursday
Miles Bridges18 hours ago

Won't Play On Thursday
Vince Williams Jr.18 hours ago

Out At Least A Month
Scottie Barnes18 hours ago

Returning On Thursday
Alex Ovechkin18 hours ago

To Miss 4-6 Weeks With Fractured Fibula
Paul George18 hours ago

Out At Least Two Games
Aaron Gordon18 hours ago

Availability In Question For Friday
Zach Hyman18 hours ago

Expected To Miss 4-7 Days
Kent Johnson18 hours ago

Back For Blue Jackets Thursday
Yaroslav Askarov19 hours ago

Makes Sharks Debut Thursday
Jalen Hurts19 hours ago

Practices In Full On Thursday
Mikael Granlund19 hours ago

Good To Go Thursday
Alexandar Georgiev19 hours ago

Returns To Action Versus Capitals
TB19 hours ago

Nicholas Paul Will Miss Thursday's Game
Frederik Andersen19 hours ago

To Miss 8-12 Weeks
Jake Ferguson19 hours ago

Still Not Practicing
Sam LaPorta19 hours ago

Looking Good For A Week 12 Return
Sam Darnold19 hours ago

Upgrades To Full Participation, On Track To Play
Isiah Pacheco20 hours ago

Remains Limited On Thursday
D'Andre Swift20 hours ago

Upgrades To Limited Participant On Thursday
CeeDee Lamb20 hours ago

Sidelined During Thursday's Practice
Ladd McConkey20 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Thursday
Mike Evans20 hours ago

Logs Full Practice On Thursday
DeVonta Smith21 hours ago

Misses Another Practice
Cody Bellinger22 hours ago

Cubs Looking To Trade Cody Bellinger?
22 hours ago

Blake Snell Has Met With Red Sox, Dodgers
Chandler Stephenson1 day ago

Registers Three Assists Versus Predators
Jason Robertson1 day ago

Totals Three Points In Wednesday's Win
Nils Lundkvist1 day ago

Exits Early With A Lower-Body Injury
Matthew Knies1 day ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury
Mikael Granlund1 day ago

Exits Late With Injury Wednesday
Patrik Laine1 day ago

Returns To Practice
Chris Sale2 days ago

Wins National League Cy Young Award
Tarik Skubal2 days ago

Wins 2024 American League Cy Young Award
Austin Eckroat2 days ago

Heads To The RSM Classic After Win
Harris English2 days ago

Finding Form Heading To The RSM Classic
Ben Griffin2 days ago

Continues Playing Well Heading To The RSM Classic
Denny McCarthy2 days ago

Returns to The RSM Classic
Ludvig Aberg2 days ago

Looks To Defend RSM Classic Title
Si Woo Kim2 days ago

An Intriguing Option At RSM Classic
Maverick McNealy2 days ago

In Solid Form Ahead Of RSM Classic
Eric Cole2 days ago

Chasing First Tour Victory At RSM Classic
2 days ago

Guardians' Stephen Vogt Named AL Manager Of The Year
Milwaukee Brewers2 days ago

Pat Murphy Named NL Manager Of The Year
3 days ago

Nick Pivetta Declines Boston's Qualifying Offer
Jose Siri3 days ago

Mets Acquire Jose Siri From The Rays
3 days ago

Phillies To Meet With Juan Soto
3 days ago

Luis Severino Rejects Qualifying Offer From Mets
3 days ago

Willy Adames Declines Brewers Qualifying Offer
3 days ago

Teoscar Hernandez Declines Qualifying Offer From Dodgers
3 days ago

Juan Soto Declines Yankees' Qualifying Offer
Luis Gil4 days ago

Wins AL Rookie Of The Year Award
Paul Skenes4 days ago

Named 2024 NL Rookie Of The Year
Brady Singer4 days ago

Reds, Royals Discussing Jonathan India, Brady Singer
4 days ago

Sean Manaea To Reject Mets' Qualifying Offer
4 days ago

Braves Have Interest In Walker Buehler
4 days ago

Astros Interested In Willy Adames
Charles Oliveira4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Michael Chandler4 days ago

Gets Dominated At UFC 309
Karine Silva4 days ago

Suffers Her First UFC Loss
Viviane Araujo4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Mauricio Ruffy4 days ago

Extends His Win Streak To Six
James Llontop5 days ago

Loses Clear-Cut Decision In Thrilling Fight At UFC 309
Paul Craig5 days ago

Loses Decision At UFC 309
Bo Nickal5 days ago

Remains Undefeated With Lackluster Performance At UFC 309
Stipe Miocic5 days ago

Retires After UFC 309 Loss
Jon Jones5 days ago

Gets TKO Win At UFC 309 To Defend Heavyweight Title

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP