LEC DFS Picks for 6/14/20 - FanDuel, DraftKings League of Legends Daily Fantasy

Thanks for coming back for more of RotoBaller's continued coverage of League of Legends DFS for FanDuel and DraftKings. Hopefully, you've been following our coverage of the LPL, which started its summer split a week earlier and stick around for our coverage of the LCS as well. Today, I am focusing on Sunday's 5-game LEC slate that has contests available on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

We have seen a little of everything in the first two days of action this weekend including some big upsets, improved play from one former cellar-dweller, and the continued domination of league powerhouse. Today we have two big favorites and then three games that I think could potentially go either way.

This should be another fun slate and I would encourage you to keep playing light and focus more on GPP contests early in the split until we get a feel for some of these teams.  Today we'll be bringing on our top League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for all the LEC slates on Sunday, June 14th, 2020 at 11:00 AM. Follow me on twitter @ThunderDanDFS and definitely make sure you're following my LOL mentor and our RotoBaller lead ESports analyst @Mr_Malmanger, too!

League of Legends DFS Basics

Since LEC contests are being offered on both FanDuel and DraftKings, it's important to note some pricing discrepancies from site to site, but the roster slots, scoring, and roster construction rules are almost entirely identical with the only exception being that FanDuel forces you to roster at least one player (or team slot) from a third team, while you can play only two teams among your seven roster slots on DraftKings.

1. Once a match starts, anything can happen. Usually, the better teams are very consistent. Be sure to check the player pool carefully and try to craft a roster of players who have been playing recently or do not have listed backups. 
2.  Stacking in LoL DFS lineups is paramount. 4-3 stacks are the order of the day (on DraftKings) with 3-3-1 or 4-2-1 are becoming more popular (and necessary on FanDuel) as people try to differentiate their lineups in these suddenly large-field GPPs.
3. In LoL DFS, it is very important to focus on players from winning teams. Think in terms of baseball, one side of the matchup is like a pitcher and the other side the batter. This means there is a very negative correlation between teams in the same match. Players score by accumulating kills, which costs the other side points in deaths. Just like earned runs bring down your pitcher’s score.
4. Along with this another mistake I see beginners making is trusting average scoring.  Players' scoring potential is only realized in games that are won. If player X averages 50 DKP, that likely comes from scoring 70 in a 2-0 win and 30 in an 0-2 defeat. What this means is that someone who looks like a value at $4800 suddenly might not end up being such a great point-per-dollar play.
5. Finally, you're going to want to do your best you fill your captain slot with an ADC or MID.  Depending on which teams and players you decide to stack that might not be feasible. The order of preference for your captain slot is generally ADC, MID, JNG, TOP, SUP.  Some players in some positions may stand out above the others so consider stats like kill share before you make your final decision.

SK Gaming vs. MAD (-260): DFS Targets

The first game of the day is an intriguing matchup between a 2-0 (yes, you read that right) SK team and the 1-1 MAD Lions. It's pretty early to read too much into the success of SK, but it would also be foolish to totally discount them. When the books first listed this game on Friday, MAD was a -500 favorite and you can see how quickly bettors have adjusted to the improved play of SK. They have the best K/D ratio in the league through two games and were absolutely dominant against Schalke on Saturday, winning 11-1 and controlling the game from the outset. They have drawn first blood in both of their matches and won the first tower. Their aggressive early game has paid off so far and they'll have another tough test here against MAD.

MAD bounced back from their Friday loss to G2 by crushing exceL 20-4. They are definitely the more experienced team here and have an advantage in the top-lane and at jungler. Crownshot (best KDA of any ADC in the league so far) and ZaZee have been fantastic for SK, but they will have tough matchups with Humanoid and Carrzy. I think the most likely outcome is a MAD win here, but I won't rule out this scrappy team, either.

Fave SK Plays: Zazee, Crownshot

Fave MAD Plays: Orome, ShadoW, Humanoid, Carrzy

Rogue (-260) vs. FCS: DFS Targets

Rogue is 2-0 and coming off an impressive win over a Misfits team that I thought would be more competitive in that game. They've now outscored their opponents 25-2 in kills so far and they've dominated objectives while doing it. Meanwhile, Schalke looks totally lost and is reeling at 0-2 after a beatdown by SK. It's pretty easy to see these teams are already trending in very different directions and I look for that to continue today.

I've mentioned this before, but Rogue (like Origen) plays a more controlled macro game that is great for getting wins but not always great for fantasy stats. They are second only to Fnatic is dragon percentage and have struck first blood and won the first tower in both their games thus far. They did rack up 17 kills against Misfits, but I think they are much more likely to finish off teams with only 10-15 kills when they can and FCS seems very unlikely to engage with them in the early game if they don't have to based on what I have watched so far. I think Rogue wins pretty easily, but they may not score all that well.

Fave Rogue Plays: Inspired, Hans Sama, Larssen, TEAM SLOT

Origen (-200) vs. Misfits: DFS Targets

Which Misfits team are we going to see on Sunday? Will it be the team that led Fnatic for most of their game on Friday before losing or the one that got dominated by Rogue yesterday in every facet of the game? They are one team that it's really hard to get a feel for so far and I can't say with much confidence if I know if they are going to be anything more than a middle-of-the-road team again this split. Meanwhile, Origen did their best Jekyll and Hyde impression, too, as they got beat by SK on Friday and then pulled a massive upset of G2 yesterday (and tanked a lot of my lineups in the process).

If we look at the bigger sample size here and focus on last year (since Origen has the same five players back and Misfits only addition this offseason was ADC Kobbe - a solid one for sure), Origen has been the better team in pretty much every category and they've taken three of the last four matchups going back to last Summer split. I expect an Origen win here, but I like the Rogue game I am not all that excited for too many plays in this game outside of the team slot. Alphari is an elite play at TOP and is one of the best top-laners in the league. I don't mind him as a one-off, I just don't know if I can get behind a full Origen stack.

Fave Origen Plays: Alphari, Xerxe, TEAM SLOT

G2 (-750) vs. Vitality: DFS Targets

I'll keep these last two breakdowns pretty short and sweet. G2 lost to Origen on Saturday, but are huge favorites here today against the last-place team from Spring split, Vitality. They should dominate here and I would do everything I could to get as many of them in my lineups as I can. The problem is they are priced up, as usual, and you may have to settle for a 3-man stack or use some weirder, potentially sub-optimal stacks that don't have Perkz or Caps to get the others players in your lineup that you want. I have no doubt they bounce back and throttle Vitality and a 20+ kill game is very likely in my opinion.

Fave G2 Plays: Perkz, Caps, Mikyz, Jankos, Wunder

exceL vs. Fnatic (-650): DFS Targets 

Our final game here is an elite spot for this 2-0 Fnatic team and I fully expect them to be 3-0 and likely in sole control of first place by the end of the day. ExceL looks like they have taken a step back so far this split as they have been dominated 28-4 in kills in their first two losses. Meanwhile, Fnatic has looked solid as usual as they notched another nice win against Vitality on Saturday. This one should get ugly and Fnatic should have a chance to compete with G2 for the most kills for a winning team on Sunday. Stack them up and squeeze them in however you can!

Fave Fnatic Plays: Rekkles, Selfmade, Nemesis, Hylassing, Bwipo

Summary

1. Play the two big favorites, don't overthink this. G2 and Fnatic are pretty much stone-cold locks to win and both face teams that can score well against. You are going to have to get creative with lineups, but just do it.
2. I like the MAD/SK game for GPPs and I wouldn't blame you for getting some exposure to both sides of it.
3. I think Origen and Rogue bully their way to wins, but I am not confident that they can score on the level of G2 and Fnatic.

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