RADIO
Welcome back to another League of Legends DFS fantasy slate! With the LPL on break until February 10th and the LCK only having 2 games per day for the next couple of days, I am going to dive into the LEC for week 3. The LEC is my personal favorite and what really got me into LoL.
We enter week 3 with Fnatic and Rogue atop the LEC standings both going 5-0 so far. MAD, MSF, and G2 are all tied for third at 3-2. XL and VIT are 2-3, BDS and SK are 1-4 and our only winless team in Astrallis is at the bottom of the standings at 0-5.
I'll provide my League of Legends DFS advice, analysis, and lineup picks for this LEC slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 12:00 PM EST on Friday, January 28th, 2022. If you have any questions about the slate or anything please reach out to me on Twitter @nolanroth10. I'll do my best to provide some useful analysis, and the odds listed are from Pinnacle. Let's jump right into the matchups, and good luck RotoBallers.
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LEC Matches
BDS (-115) vs. AST (-115)
In our first LEC match of week 3, we get a battle of the bottom. The two teams are a combined 1-9, with BDS beating Vitality in week one. Both teams are middle of the pack when it comes to the pace of the game. BDS has not impressed me so far, however pre-split I was expecting them to be way more aggressive than they have looked through 5 games. Astralis while being winless has played all the top LEC teams so far. Now that is more common when you are one of the bad teams, but my feeling is that Astrallis is more battle-tested than BDS and Astrallis should be able to pull this game out.
BDS best players through 2 weeks have been jungler Cinkrof and mid-laner Nuclearint. They are tied for the team lead in kill share at 29.2% but only have a 50 and 58% KP respectively. Support Limit leads the team in KP at 64%. 64% KP leading the team is not a number you like to see. What we can take away from that is that they either have not been successful in team fights or they do not do a good job of coordinating plays involving the majority of the team. In the case of BDS, both statements could be considered true.
I don't see this game drawing much ownership, which makes Astrallis a good leverage spot here. This is a game Astrallis know they can win and will be doing everything they can to get into the win collum. Astrallis kill share has been very spread out this split. Kobbe and Zanzarah sit at 26.4% and Dajor and WhiteKnight sit at 22.6%. This does make it a bit of a guessing game on the key targets, however, they will all be playable. Zanzarah would be a good starting point of all Astrallis lineups. as he brings a 77.4% KP and in all honesty is an underrated jungler in this league. Bot lane and top lane for BDS have a combined 66% of the team's deaths, making Kobbe and WhiteKnight intriguing plays as well.
Top BDS plays: Cinkrof, Nuclearint
Top AST plays: Zanzarah, WhiteKnight, Kobbe, Dajor
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MAD (-275) vs. XL (+200)
XL has had a very up and down first two weeks. Some were expecting this to finally be the year that XL makes the playoffs. XL does have one. big change to their roster as they picked up MikyX during the week and he is expected to be the starting support for the remainder of the year. It is sad to see Advienne get replaced so early into his career as he. has had some very bright moments. At this current time, however, MikyX is an upgrade to this roster. XL will have only had a few days to practice with MikyX and facing a team of MAD caliber right off the bat, does not bode well for their chances to get a win.
I like MAD in this spot. We could see XL be a bit messy in this game as they get used to playing with each other. Messiness leads to skirmishes and team fights and that is what we are looking for. Unforgiven. has dominated the KS at 39.3% while also bringing at 71% KP. Elyoya is the heart and soul of this team, he is one of the best junglers in the league and probably one of the top players the LEC has this split. Elyoya has a 77% KP and a 27.4% KS. He makes for one of the better captain options on the slate. Mid-laner Reeker's numbers have been uninspiring and would be the guy to fade in MAD stacks.
Top MAD plays: Elyoya, Unforgiven, Kaiser, Armut
VIT (-385) vs. SK (+265)
What a crazy start it has been for the supposed Vitality super team. After looking at what I would describe as lost in week one and losing all three games, they came back in week 2 a completely different team going 2-0 and looking more like the team everyone was expecting to see. I am going to chalk week one up to overconfidence and VIT expecting to walk through teams based on talent alone. That obviously didn't work and we saw them go back to more of the basics in week 2 which clearly worked. I expect to see VIT continue off the success of week 2 and take home the win in this one.
With how disastrous week 1 was, VIT numbers aren't as accurate as some of the other teams. With that being said, Carzzy, Selfmade, and Alphari have been the kill prominent players early on. However, any time you have Perkz on your team, you know he is going to take over a game at some point. Overall Perkz has not had the start I was hoping to see from him returning to the LEC. Perkz should have little trouble with Sertuss in this matchup and I am going to have plenty of shares of Perkz hoping we get his take-over game here.
Top VIT plays: Everyone
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RGE (+120) vs. FNC (-155)
As a LEC fan, this is the best matchup of the day as we get the two undefeated teams going up against each other. After this game, only one team will have hopes of going 18-0. What I have seen from Rogue this split has surprised me. After losing Hans Sama and Inspired, I was expecting to see this team take a major step backward. I still give the edge to FNC here as overall their team is just more talented. I expect that to be the general consensus here making RGE an excellent GPP option. Rogue leads the LEC in kills, so if they can pull out the win we could see some optimal scores out of them. While I mentioned RGE has the most kills, they also have the least deaths and play a very macro-style game. This could limit some of the upside of FNC in this game. I'm not saying FNC are not good plays, but this could be a matchup worth being underweight on.
Larssen, Comp, and Trymbi would be my core 3 for Rogue, sprinkling Odoamne and Malrang into lineups. Hylissang, Upset, and Razork would be my core for FNC, mixing in Wunder and Humanoid.
Top plays are listed in order from. favorite to least favorite play.
Top RGE plays: Comp, Trymbi, Larssen, Malrang, Odo
Top FNC plays: Upset, Hyli, Razork, Wunder, Humanoid
MSF (+135) vs. G2 (-175)
We are finally onto the last game of the day in MSF and G2. This is definitely a game I want to target and having shares of both teams makes sense in GPP's. I do expect G2 to win the game however I expected to see these odds be closer than they are.
The leader of MSF is clearly mid-laner Vetheo and he brings with him a team-best 77% KP and 33% KS. He would be the first person I put into MSF lineups. Neon is next in KS at 29%, his KP% is only 59% but an almost 30% KS is good enough to overlook that. HiRit is very capable of taking over games in the top lane but does have a tough matchup against BB. Jungler Shlatan has a 72% KP and is a great secondary option in MSF stacks
Broken Blade has had a phenomenal start as a member of G2 as he carries a 73% KP and 35% KS. At this point, he is the clear option for G2 as Caps has struggled. Speaking of Caps his 18% KS is surprisingly low, but much like the Perkz write-up above, Caps can take over any game and is probably the most mechanically skilled player in the LEC. Support Targamas leads the team in KP at 75% and has done an excellent job roaming the map so far this split
Top MSF plays: Vetheo, Neon, Shlatan, HiRit
Top G2 plays: B.B, Targamas, Caps, Flakked, Jankos
Summary
- TLDR: AST is a great leverage spot, RGE and MSF are the two underdogs worth taking GPP shots on. While the bigger favorites take up the cash lineups
- GPP Stacks: My favorite combinations for GPP stacks are AST/RGE/MAD/MSF
- Cash Stacks: For cash, MAD/G2/VIT/AST
Good luck tomorrow RotoBallers!
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