RADIO
The term "league-winning" is better served in fantasy football, where one player can single-handedly win your matchup for you. Think stud rookie wideouts who had a huge second half like Brian Thomas Jr. or running backs who took over as starters like Bucky Irving. Whereas in fantasy baseball, you need several pieces of the puzzle to win your league, so a single player won't be able to have that type of impact.
With that said, you can build a powerhouse roster by hitting home runs on mid-to-late-round pitchers with high ceilings. Locking in these types of arms can put your team over the top, especially if you stacked your lineup with your early-round picks. Think Garrett Crochet from last year -- virtually free in drafts but became an ace.
In this article, we'll dive into pitchers who fit the following criteria of a league-winner: available past pick-150 in NFBC ADP (since March 1) with the upside to turn into a frontline starter for your fantasy baseball rotation.
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Robbie Ray, San Francisco Giants
NFBC ADP: 160.86
Robbie Ray looked impressive in limited action last season, putting up a 3.51 SIERA and 33.3 K% in 30.2 innings. Let's remember that Ray has been quite valuable in his last two healthy seasons, going 189+ innings with 212+ strikeouts and a sub-3.80 ERA in each of those campaigns.
You're likely to see a resurgence from Ray now that he's healthy and set to go to work in one of the most pitcher-friendly environments in Oracle Park, which ranks 30th in park factor for home runs, per Baseball Savant.
Cristopher Sanchez, Philadelphia Phillies
NFBC ADP: 169.65
Two straight seasons with strong ratios for Cristopher Sanchez. With the velocity uptick, the entire arsenal is going to play better. Plus the addition of a new cutter. I expect the whiff and strikeout rates to soar.
— Chris Clegg (@ChrisCleggMiLB) March 7, 2025
Cristopher Sanchez registered a 3.58 SIERA in 181.2 innings last season. While the strikeout rate was below average at 20.3%, there's reason for optimism for an uptick in 2025. We've seen a bump in velocity, with Sanchez sitting at 97 MPH on his sinker, which is a 2+ MPH increase from last year.
The results have been promising in spring training, as Sanchez has racked up 12 strikeouts in only 7.2 innings (40.0 K%). If the strikeout gains can hold for a full year, the Phillies lefty could provide a major profit at his current cost.
Yusei Kikuchi, Los Angeles Angels
NFBC ADP: 175.94
Yusei Kikuchi was phenomenal once traded to the Astros last season, putting up a 2.87 SIERA and 31.8 K% in 60 innings. While Kikuchi signed with the Angels this offseason, there's a good chance that he'll bring over what he learned about his arsenal in Houston to Los Angeles.
The upside of securing a pitcher with a 30+% strikeout rate is too enticing to ignore at this ADP. Kikuchi has an impressive arsenal, highlighted by a changeup that induced a 34.2% whiff rate in 2024.
Brandon Pfaadt, Arizona Diamondbacks
NFBC ADP: 188.38
Something to watch with Brandon Pfaadt: his curveball.
He used it more over the final few games, with fewer sweepers(13 HR allowed). The sweeper is still an effective whiff pitch, but better sequencing of the CH/SW/CB could lead to a big 2025. 4 starts w/9 or more K in Aug/Sept pic.twitter.com/XdJpN2Afe4— Chris Clegg (@ChrisCleggMiLB) February 2, 2025
Brandon Pfaadt deserved better results than his surface-level numbers from last year, as his 3.65 SIERA was much lower than his 4.71 ERA. This is a former top prospect entering his age-26 season, fresh off a 180+ inning campaign, so the volume is there for wins and strikeouts.
Speaking of punchouts, it's worth noting that the D-Backs righty improved his K% from 22.3% to 24.3% in 2024. If we dig in a little deeper, we see those gains mostly came in the second half, where he put up a 27.6 K% -- promising signs for a career year in 2025.
Spencer Arrighetti, Houston Astros
NFBC ADP: 202.46
Spencer Arrighetti came on strong in the second half in 2024, putting up a 3.18 ERA and 1.17 WHIP with 21 walks and 78 strikeouts in 65 innings. The full-year numbers were good as well, as it's intriguing to see that Arrighetti posted a 3.93 SIERA in his rookie season.
The swing-and-miss stuff is there, highlighted by a 12.2 SwStr%. You have to love that Arrighetti has three pitches with a 37+% whiff rate in his curveball (42.4%), sweeper (38.6%), and changeup (37.8%). There's a high ceiling here that is worth prioritizing in drafts.
MacKenzie Gore, Washington Nationals
NFBC ADP: 210.49
It feels like MacKenzie Gore has been around forever, but the former Padre is still only entering his age-26 season. This is a lefty who has put up a 25.9 K% and 24.8 K% in the last two seasons, highlighted by 166.1 innings in 2024. In other words, you have the desired profile here in a pitcher with high strikeout upside and projected volume.
There's a good chance that we see Gore eclipse 180 innings as the top starter for the Nationals. It's also worth noting that his numbers were held back by a league-worst .340 BABIP last season, which is an unsustainable rate.
Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians
NFBC ADP: 216.22
Gavin Williams was unreal today:
2.1 IP 3 H 1 R 1 BB 6 K
15 whiffs 🔥🔥I’m expecting a breakout year from him in 2025!
pic.twitter.com/6NS66ambAF— Andrew DeCeglie (@Andrew_FBB) March 4, 2025
Gavin Williams was held back by injury last season, but he's fully healthy right now and looking terrific in spring training, putting up 16 strikeouts in eight innings. According to Eno Sarris of The Athletic, Williams ranked 2nd in extension last season, which helps his velocity appear even faster.
We've seen Williams get 30+% whiff rates on his curveball and cutter, so there's a diverse arsenal here. Add in the fact that the Guardians are among the best in pitching development, and you can see why Williams is such an appealing target.
Clarke Schmidt, New York Yankees
NFBC ADP: 250.54
Clarke Schmidt was in the middle of a breakout season before it got derailed by injury. This is a pitcher who improved his strikeout rate from 21.5% to 26.3% last year, resulting in a 3.77 SIERA for the season.
With the Yankees dealing with a decimated rotation that includes injuries to Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil, there's a good chance that they'll have to rely on Schmidt more than expected. That could mean more innings, giving him more opportunities to rack up wins and strikeouts. Don't be surprised if Schmidt turns in a huge year if he can stay healthy.
Max Scherzer, Toronto Blue Jays
NFBC ADP: 276.78
Max Scherzer was dominant as recently as 2022 when he put up a 2.28 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 145.1 innings for the Mets. We saw the future Hall-of-Famer deal with injuries last season, but he looks fully healthy right now. The newest Blue Jay has been dominant in spring training, posting 14 strikeouts in nine innings.
While it's a good idea to take spring stats with a grain of salt, this is the case where it's notable because it's a pitcher with a strong track record showing that he's on his game. If Scherzer can give us 140+ innings, he'll be a major profit at cost.
Ryan Weathers, Miami Marlins
NFBC ADP: 334.56
That'll do it for Ryan Weathers. His final line:
2.1 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 3 SO, 0 HR, 53 NP
Weathers settled in nicely after a wild first frame, retiring the final six Braves he faced in order. Filthy slider to Austin Riley here to end his night. pic.twitter.com/mK02hqvAbX
— Nate Karzmer (@NateKarzmer) March 7, 2025
Ryan Weathers ranked in the top five in BB% and GB% improvers last season. We've also seen intriguing results in spring training, where the Marlins lefty has been sitting at 98 MPH with an average of 18 inches of vertical break, per Baseball America.
This type of improvement in a pitcher's arsenal is exactly what you need for a breakout. Despite playing for one of the worst teams in MLB, Weathers is a great target who should provide strong ratios in this pitcher-friendly environment.
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