RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! WORLDS IS HERE! I know I've been tweeting about it for seemingly forever, but this is our Superbowl (with better music production)! One thing that's much the same as the EU Masters but on a larger scale is regional strength. You'll often find me referencing past Worlds and MSI performances to gauge these regions' relative strength. It's always up for debate, but generally speaking, LPL is considered the strongest region after winning the last two Worlds. LEC and LCK are right behind them, with the LEC ahead by a nose from performances in the previous two years.
From 2013 to 2017, though, Korea was the dominant force in international play, winning five straight titles and having three straight Korean finals. LCS lags behind its major region brethren in fourth place ahead of the PCS (formerly LMS) and VCS (who's teams aren't in attendance this year due to COVID travel restrictions), but after that its a little more balanced. Let's keep this in mind when we're looking at the stats. Unicorns of Love are the first team to jump off the page, having lost only two games all year in their home region. Does that make them better than LGD, who was nearly .500 in the LPL, or MAD Lions, who were 12-6 but in a much more competitive league? One hundred percent baron control in the LCL won't translate directly to the same thing in a matchup versus a major region team.
Next, let's look at a quick rundown of how our slates will look from a DFS standpoint. We're back to best of one format for the first four days as the play-in stage competitors complete a single round-robin within each group. To start, we'll have the two-game early slate on Friday AM, followed by a three-game main slate. Next on Saturday morning, there will be two two-game early slates with a three-game main slate. Sunday and Monday will bring us to the close of best of one play with two two-game slates each day. The first-place team in each group then auto qualifies to the main stage while the third and fourth place teams square off in a best of five. Those matches' winners will then play another best of five series with the second-place team from the other group, and that gives us Tuesday and Wednesday as a pair of two-game best of five slates to close out play-ins.
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5:40 AM: Legacy Esports (OPL) vs. Intz Gaming (CBLOL) -180
Legacy Esports, the Oceania Pro League champions, gutted their roster in the offseason changing every position, and it worked to perfection. They dominated their league like few teams outside of Unicorns of Love did. They won the spring and summer split both regular season and playoffs. Only their jungler Babip saw international play qualifying for worlds in 2019 with Mammoth Esports. Midlaner Tally and ADC Raes are veterans of the OPL while support Isles is in his first full season as a starter. Topoon, their Korean top-laner (what a name, right), is in his third season in the OPL and was on the Mammoth squad with Babip, although he did not attend worlds as he split time with Fudge in the top lane. Legacy has a nice mix of experience with youthful enthusiasm on their squad.
INTZ is already familiar to us from a full season of CBLOL DFS and a quick refresher course from the early slate. Historically the CBLOL and the OPL have been close in relative strength at worlds with a slight edge to the CBLOL. I'm just not that impressed with this INTZ squad. Looking at the stats, I'm pretty confident in playing them straight up, given each region's relative strengths. Legacy should be the better team early and late, holding the edge in first blood, first turret, and golf differential at fifteen minutes. The teams both have a 52 percent rift herald percentage, but LGC has the lead in drakes and vision numbers by a fair amount. INTZ does have better baron numbers, but I think with a more decisive early game, LGC should neutralize that advantage.
Particularly of interest to me is the top jungle matchup. I give a clear advantage in that two v two to Legacy. Legacy leans to the top side with 45 of their 75 kills pre 15 minutes being either the enemy top laner or jungler, and INTZ is even with 37 kills top jungle and 37 kills mid to bot. Looking at what both junglers are currently playing in the Chinese super server leading up to worlds, I like Babip's champion pool better as well. He has been running Nidalee, Graves, Lillia, and Kindred. Three of those four were the most played in significant regions during the playoffs, with Graves and Nidalee being near the top in win rate. Shini has been running Volibear and Sett as two of his top picks; those two round out the top five most played across playoff regions. Graves and Nidalee's ability to power farm early game combined with Topoon's advantages in the top lane will allow LGC to snowball Topoons carry top style. With the added benefit of the blue side on which LGC is 11-1 on this summer, I feel strongly about this one.
Top LGC Plays:
- Babip - JNG
- Topoon - TOP
- Raes - ADC
- Isles - SUP
6:30 AM: LGD (LPL) -700 vs. PSG Talon (PCS)
No introductions needed with PSG Talon and their various hardships explained in the early slate article, and LGD being very familiar to us from a full season of LPL, we can dive right in. This match, I have to discount PSG a bit, given the regions' relative strength, and maybe a bit more besides having lost their starting ADC. Both teams were among the slowest teams in their regions, with LGD being last and PSG being seventh of ten. Both teams were good early game, with PSG coming in third in early game rating via Oracles Elixir and LGD being fifth of seventeen. The other spot I expect LGD to gain an advantage is through the jungle outside PSG's ADC issues. Kongyue may be the best jungler in his region, but his newness to the team and the step-up in competition will hurt. Despite being first in the PCS in gold differential at 15 minutes, Talon is dead last in first blood percentage at 28%. LGD clocked in at 11th in the LPL surprisingly low, but at 45%, much higher than PSG. Kongyue was on AHQ, but they were at 42% and in the bottom half of the league. I think Peanut will win the jungle matchup, and LGD should be able to secure first blood and first turret and take the gold lead. Kramer should smash the bot lane matchup that, along with Peanut handing the team an early lead, should give the game over to LGD.
Top LGD Plays:
- Peanut - JNG
- Kramer - ADC
- Mark - SUP
- Xiye - MID
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7:20 AM: Team Liquid (LCS) vs. MAD Lions (LEC) - 150
On to the main event, NA vs. EU, if anyone listened to the Gold Card Podcast mega show, you could see that this particular matchup was a polarizing one. Nearly a 50/50 split between all the experts, for myself, I do not think MAD Lions are going to do well, and I picked them to not get out of groups, but some other people who I respect think they have a chance to push out of main stage groups. Looking at these stats, TL has a better early game mainly through the strength of their laners. MAD has the lead in first blood, first turret, but TL has a better herald percentage and gold differential at 15 minutes. MAD has a better drake percentage, while TL has a better baron take and a slight vision advantage. With the CSM advantage and gold economy advantage that TL will be up early, they will also benefit from the blue side's advantage, having gone 14-4 there on the split. I think that we've seen MAD Lions fall off at the end of the split as they started 10-2 in the summer split, but ended 16-13, including playoffs. TL also had some disappointing performing performances in the playoffs, which is not to be dismissed. TL has advantages in every lane, experience on their side, vision advantages, and gold economy advantages that will be too much for a struggling ML side. Due to my esteemed colleague's love for ML, I think its reasonable to split the exposure here.
Top TL Plays:
- Jensen - MID
- Broxah - JNG
- Tactical - ADC
- CoreJJ - SUB
Top ML Plays
- Humanoid - MID
- Shadow - JNG
- Kaiser - SUP
- Carzzy - ADC
Summary
- TLDR - I've got Legacy, LGD, and Team Liquid winning today. I'm confident in Legacy over INTZ, and LGD over Talon, but a bit less so in TL.
- TL might, oddly enough, be my favorite upside play with MAD, giving up over 20 deaths in their losses. INTZ gives up 18 and PSG only 14.6, so I might be slightly down on LGD from an upside potential.
- Ownership will be interesting LGD should be 50-60 percent as a -700 favorite, and TL will likely slot in next slightly ahead of MAD, maybe around 40% with MAD at like 30% due to pricing people wanting to get an ADC or MID into the captain slot. INTZ probably next 20-25 just due to people being a bit familiar with them from CBLOL contests. That will leave LGC at 15 percent and PSG at 5% or lower.
- I could be wrong and often am when it comes to putting my finger on these slates' pulse. I feel like I've been thinking, talking, and writing about these slates for two weeks so I hope I didn't leave anything out for you all just because I feel very familiar with it.
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