RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! The knockout rounds have arrived, and at the end of today, we will wish bon voyage as two more teams exit the World championship's play-in stage.
Today's matches will be a best of five format with the third and fourth seed in each group facing off for the right to move on to tomorrow and face the second seed from the opposite group. I'll be here for the best of fives, and at least the opening rounds of the main stage, so never fear the Esports crew here at Rotoballer will be here with you all the way; stay tuned!
Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the World Championship play-in knockout slates on DraftKings that lock at 2:00 AM ET on Tuesday, September 29th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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2:00 AM: Rainbow7 (LLA) vs. LGD (LPL) -850
I don't think even the staunchest LPL haters, looking at you JOSH thought we'd end up here. The LPL's fourth seed hanging buy a thread needing to win two best of five matches to make it through to the main stage after getting drawn into the free play-in group with no other "major" region teams. The mid-major group members put one on LGD, and so did the minor region LLA's representative Rainbow7. We saw R7 control neutral objectives and, more importantly, the vision around those objectives in route to shutting down LGD when these two met in the round-robin.
Despite their problems thus far at worlds, we've seen LGD continue to be better early game than their opposition. They use a 100% first blood rate to build up an average gold lead at fifteen minutes of 2148 gold and find new and exciting ways to lose mid and late game. Mostly it has been about getting caught out and picked off both around objectives and just randomly around the map. It has been incredibly frustrating to watch, but luckily for me, I'll now have up to five chances to pull out all my hair while I watch another LGD series. On a serious note, LGD also has a lead in the first turret, and rift herald takes. R7 has better drake numbers and a higher baron percentage, while LGD answers with slightly better vision numbers. LGD needs to use their vision correctly, and I'm hoping that finding themselves in this elimination match can wake them up a bit.
Neither team has a decided advantage in terms of side splits, but due to a head to head win, Rainbow will benefit from side selection in three of a possible five games. I believe that R7 caught a couple of lucky breaks with some narrow escapes early on in their previous match with LGD that kept the game closer than it should have been. LGD, having played and coached in best of threes all year, gives them a bit of an advantage here for me. Yes, I know that R7 made it through some best of fives in their playoffs, but I believe the overall the experience factor is on the side of LGD. R7's best bet to win is likely playing through the top/jungle duo and allow Acce and Josedeodo to try to carry. Jose, in particular, has been excellent in this tournament, but I think the advantage Xiye and Kramer bring to the table will be too much throughout the series. Utilizing the traditional carry roles is a much more stable way to play the game. I will take LGD to win 3-1 and advance to face the second seed from group A ...
Top LGD Plays:
- Xiye - MID
- Peanut - JNG
- Kramer - ADC
- Mark - SUP
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6:00 AM: Papara SuperMassive (TCL) vs. MAD Lions (LEC) -200
MAD as favorites was a bit surprising to me given their performance thus far at worlds, but SuperMassive did finally flash some weakness on the last day of group play. Now it will just be a question of which Supermassive squad shows up here. Will it be the clean, coordinated version that took down MAD in their first meeting, or will we see the draft blunders that led to them getting demolished by TL and LGC.
Thus far at Worlds, we've seen SM be the better of the two teams early with better first blood, first turret, rift herald, and gold differential at 15 minutes than ML. SM also holds the edge in overall dragon and baron numbers, with ML having a sizeable edge in vision numbers. The first match between the two teams played out very well for SuperMassive. Armut got ahead versus Orome, then he and Kakao translated that lead to the other lanes and winning key fights around objectives.
Looking back at their season-long numbers, SM should be ahead early with a continued advantage in first turret and rift heralds. This match stacks up in an eerily similar way to the first one for me, with the TCL champs having the advantage in the top and jungle, but the LEC representative looking to play through mid and bot. Carzzy has played well and perhaps gets a bit frustrated with his teammates, especially if his body language after Legacy's loss is to be believed. MAD have been stronger laners, and so SM will have to push their advantage with herald to be able to balloon a gold lead. If they are not proactive, ML will just passively farm to a gold lead. ML was finally patient in their tiebreaker win over INTZ, which allowed them to pick up the win after falling behind early.
I hate to say it as I have picked SM to get out of play-ins and MAD lions to not, but I think MAD got the win in this series 3-2. SM's top and jungle play has been excellent, but I think Armut has been playing over his head a bit and will likely fall back to earth. Humanoid and Carzzy will need to be better than their counterparts, and I believe they have been and will continue to be. Just as I like LGD to play through their primary carries, the same logic must apply here. Playing against MAD and letting them bungle into the enemy team has been very profitable thus far at Worlds 2020, but I think it might be time to switch up and jump on the LEC bandwagon for this one. If, however, you don't think MAD can stop beating themselves and Shadow continues to int, then SuperMassive is still firmly in play. This game should be the more action-packed of the two matches today, and I'll look for my big stacks from this one.
Top MAD Plays:
- Carzzy - ADC
- Kaiser - SUP
- Humanoid - MID
- Shadow - JNG
Top PSM Plays:
- Armut - TOP
- KaKAO - JNG
- Bolulu - MID
- Zeitnot - ADC
Summary
- TLDR - LGD and MAD Lions advance. I think both major region teams will have the advantage of playing through their main carries. During their tiebreakers, both showed that while they have disappointed up to this point with plenty of unforced errors, they can tighten up and not beat themselves, which is what they both need to do here.
- The second series is where I will focus most of my attention looking for my big stacks and likely my captain, and I can even see several SM players being able to pay off as a punt play even though I've picked them to lose.
- BO5 and BO1 are the best spots for game stacking as a full five-game series can see even losing teams score well, but in general, I feel that it is overrated as a strategy, and I rarely use it. I won't recommend it here either, with all the teams likely playing tighter to avoid elimination, but I can see where people would play it.
- It does hurt quite a bit to reverse the pre-tournament prediction and back MAD in this series, but I think they mainly have to stop beating themselves to beat SM. SM is still very alive to win that series, and it will be interesting to see if that line moves at all before lock.
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