RADIO
Welcome back, RotoBallers, to my League of Legends DFS column! We only have a few more slates of LOL this year so let's relish the remaining time we have together!
I know you all tune in for the lengthy boring break downs of these matchups, but we're going to be brief today. Many of these matches are easy to pick, and we need to find what spots to focus on. I think once you see the schedule and the Vegas odds for today's matches, you'll agree. This is the final day of these glorious six-game slates, and I'm excited to see what's next as we finish out the first round robin at worlds.
Today, I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and lineup picks for the World Championship play-in early slates on DraftKings that lock at 4:00 AM ET on Tuesday, October 6th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: G2 Esports (LEC) -315 vs. Team Liquid (LCS)
I must admit I like these spots where not much analysis is required. G2 has been sloppy and lucky through two days of play, and TL has been weak and was embarrassed yesterday. The main questions here are how G2 win, and how much G2 score. They are expensive on DK, but more affordable on FD. Usually, I would say the fade is the play here, but with how TL was flamed for their loss yesterday, I think they might step up a bit and contest G2. I don't know how much I'll have, but it could be a sneaky good spot as NA tries to prove it's still relevant. I have G2 with the fourth most projected kills of my winners today, and that's right where they are priced on DK. Take the value on FD, and on DK I'd be careful unless you think TL stoop to G2's level.
Top G2 Plays:
- Caps - MID
- Jankos - JNG
- MikyX - SUP
- Perkz - ADC
4:50 AM: Suning (LPL) -375 vs. Machi Esports
We saw Machi stand up to G2, and G2 responded with some classic inti to make the game more exciting. SNG decimated TL with draft diff and just general awesomeness. Now they face off for the chance to pull ahead in the race for second place in group A.
Machi has been the more active team in the early game holding the edge in first blood, first turret, and the gold differential at 15 minutes. SNG holds the edge in CSM, rift heralds, barons, and has a decided edge in vision numbers. Machi will try to answer with better dragon numbers, but I think SNG will take the advantage early with their lane advantages and SofM's prowess at counter jungling. Machi will be fighting an uphill battle, and we saw what G2 did yesterday. Wunder showed out against PK, and I expect Bin to dismantle Machi's top-laner.
Suning wins this one hands down, and I think it is a sneaky upside spot for them. They are usually a cleaner team than some of their LPL brethren, and they may mop up in this one. In their playoffs, Machi gave up 22, 22, 14, and 26 deaths in their losses and helped G2 put up some crooked numbers yesterday. I think that's the case today again as I have them projected third out of my winners in kill numbers. With their pricing and their penchant for cleaner games, I think other spots I like more.
Top SNG Plays:
- SofM - JNG
- Bin - TOP
- Angel - MID
- Huenfeng - ADC
5:40 AM: DRX (LCK) -360 vs. Flyquest (LCS)
DRX will be out for vengeance after their loss to TES yesterday in which Top went the weirdchamp route and hung tough, flexing their talent level on the LCK's second seed. Flyquest got the first win for NA, and that was more than a little lucky, but POE is a monster, and he singlehandedly held Fly in the game.
DRX should smash in lane; they are one of the best laning teams in the LCK. They like to sacrifice early objectives to prioritize getting farm and turret plates onto their carries. I doubt that Flyquest can generate an early lead, and when it comes down to the late game, DRX should be ahead when it comes to big objective fights. Fly does have a better drake percentage and is only a few percentage points behind DRX in baron takes.
DRX has too much firepower for FLY, but as a recurring theme, I think this one will be on the slower side due to NA playstyle. I don't think I will have much DRX as I have them as the lowest projected scorers of any winner today. I think this, too, is a deep Gpp dog or pass spot. FLY was competitive with TES, and I think they could be too with DRX. If we get a classic DRX draft bungle or throw the game to FLY, the NA squad has proven it can punish mistakes.
Top FLY Plays:
- PowerOfEvil - MID
- Santorin - JNG
- Ignar - SUP
- Wildturtle - ADC
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6:30 AM: Top Esports (LPL) -950 vs. Unicorns of Love (LCL)
TES took a page out of European caster Vedius book yesterday as he is famous for his Nocturne mid pick. TES used it as a creative counter to the Twisted Fate from Chovy, making him think twice before getting into fights and limiting his ability to make the cross-map plays for which that champion is famous. UOL got a bit unlucky losing to FLY yesterday, but POE was phenomenal on Syndra, and that was enough. I'm very sorry for the LCL champs as they are really going to get mid diffed today.
TES looked good in beating DRX on Monday, showing a different aspect to their playstyle. Their champion selections and item builds were smart, and we even got to see some lanes being frozen by 369. Those long lanes frustrated Doran, and TES was able to punish him and get 369 back on track after a rough start to the game against the counter picked Quinn.
TES should smash in this one, and both teams' aggressive nature makes this a premium spot as well. TES is a bit more expensive, but I have them as the second-best kill projected team on the slate. I will have plenty of TES in this spot as we saw DRX throw up 22 kills on UOL in the opener, and TES could eclipse that.
Top TES Plays:
- Jackeylove - ADC
- Knight - MID
- Karsa - JNG
- Yuyanjia - SUP
7:20 AM: Fnatic (LEC) vs. Gen G (LCK) -200
I don't like either of Fnatic or TSM chances to get out of this group. What FNC showed me day one versus TSM was excellent map movement and solid macro play. On day two, Fnatic showed confidence in their ability to outplay, allowing LangX to get Ornn and trying to play around it with Bwipo on the Sett. Unfortunately, they couldn't pull it off, and I don't think many teams can. Remember in spring, when IG would do this, effectively putting themselves on the clock to win before Ornn starts upgrading items and becomes unkillable. I think that bordered on hubris from FNC, and I don't think it bodes well for them in the future.
Gen G is 2-0, but I haven't been particularly impressed with either of their wins, and they are a team I was high on coming into groups. They rolled over TSM but had some problems closing out LGD. I'll be looking for them to clean up their act in this one. They should have every chance to do so against a Fnatic team that has underwhelmed thus far.
Gen G is 100% dominant in every stat imaginable; there is NOTHING that Fnatic has the edge in. Not CSM, not damage, vision, objectives, close in first blood, and their playoffs first blood percentage is better than that of Gen G, so they will likely use Selfmade to try to get one of his laners ahead early. That could be Bwipo as he might have the best chance of carrying against his lane opponent Rascal.
I imagine this going the way of SNG/TL from yesterday, just not as extreme. Rekkles/Hylli will be on a safer scaling bot duo, while FNC looks to trade for the map's top side. Gen G would be best off having Rascal fend for himself while Clid enables Ruler or Bdd. Anyway, you slice it. I like Gen G in this match over an FNC squad that is a bit overconfident and overhyped. This one is my top spot on the slate, and I'm assuming everyone else's too. FNC gives up over 20 deaths in their losses, and Gen G is over 19 killed in their wins. Gen G on blue means it's a near guarantee they win this, and they are priced down on both sites. Maybe I run out one FNC lineup for some massive leverage, or fade Gen G and hope they go under, but outside of a very few GPP lineups, this is my favorite spot on the slate.
Top Gen Plays:
- Ruler - ADC
- Clid - JNG
- Bdd - MID
- Life - SUP
8:10 AM: Team Solo Mid (LCS) vs. LGD (LPL) -170
NA took some severe HEAT on Twitter.com yesterday after the smackdown in every phase that TL endured at the hands of SNG. The betting line for this match opened with LGD a slight favorite, just over a pick-em. A win over FNC and TL's collapse has helped move it to -155, and I expect it to climb before lock as all the rats jump off of the sinking ship that is NA.
LGD has stepped up their early game since they arrived at worlds, and I feel that's what will win them this game. We saw FNC take control early against TSM and strangle them out as TSM was unable to move up past the line of vision that FNC had established. The teams are pretty equal in CSM and gold generation, but with the first blood rate that LGD has shown throughout the playoffs, I expect them to be ahead at the 15-minute mark.
LGD should be up early, an edge in talent, better team fighting, and of course, they come from an actual top tier region. LGD wins this match more often than not, but the real question is how will they score. TSM, like most NA teams, are good at delaying when they are behind, so I don't see LGD paying off in a win. Being one of the slower matches on the slate makes this a dog or pass spot for me.
Top TSM Plays:
- Spica - JNG
- Bjergsen - MID
- Broken Blade - TOP
- TSM Team
Summary
- TLDR - G2, SNG, DRX, TES, GEN, and LGD win! Not much for underdog spots on this slate, and sadly I might have to play some NA. I think you can pick and choose some of the best values among the favs to cobble together some nice lineups.
- Gen G is my highest projected team on the slate with TES and SNG right behind. G2 and LGD come next in a virtual heat, followed by DRX among the winners. TSM and Flyquest are probably the best dog spots as DRX and LGD are the most inconsistent of today's favorites.
- LGD is currently -170 favs, and that's a 63% implied win probability. They are the lowest of the favs, with others approaching 80% and TES on top with 90.5%. So you can see why I think this slate is easier to find the winner.
- On the last day of big slates, I'm excited to see how ownership shakes out with all these favorites. After today, the groups go in alphabetical order to finish up their double round-robin, and we will get three two-game slates a day on DK and maybe nothing from FD. They could surprise us with the type of slates they had during EU Masters, where you picked players for all three of their matches.
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