RADIO
Tough to complain on a green night, but complaining is my favorite thing to do. I ended up with some sad-looking AFS/JDG (after the contests were over anyway) that struggled to a minimum cash.
It's a well-known fact, but every day brings us a chance at redemption. We're ready for the BIG weekend slates and the earlier lock time so MOUNT UP and let's ride with five LOL matches on tomorrow morning's slate.
Let's hop back in the saddle again as I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel locking at 4:00 AM on Saturday, August 8th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM Dragon X (-800) vs. Sandbox Gaming
We have to look back to the summer of 2019 to find an SBG win over DRX, and even then, they didn't score very well with only 19 kills in a 2-0 victory. We have seen Sandbox rise back up in the LCK standings with their Yamato buffs, but I think the glass ceiling in the league will only allow them to join AFS as gatekeepers. You must be AFS\SBG tall to ride this ride, and that ride is legitimate threats to win playoffs or make the world's championship. DRX, on the other hand, has already locked the playoffs and is a threat to take the whole thing. Unlike the LPL, the LCK is a LOT more buttoned-down, and so the only concerns I have with these big favorites are that they cruise to secure wins and don't score well enough.
I am filtering the stats since 10.13 when Yamato arrived, and SBG began their rise, but you can still see that DRX has a couple of significant advantages. We've talked about DRX's dominant laners before, and this is another excellent example of that factor. SBG works harder in the early game. They have a better first turret rating, first drake percentage, and rift herald take, but DRX lead in first blood and the ever-important gold differential at 15 minutes. DRX is second in the league in CSM and third in jungle percentage, those are what they use to accumulate their early leads, not so much roaming and first map movements. Drakes and barons also go over to the side of DRX. If SBG wants to win, they will have to be super active early and snowball that to the end. Because of the way they're going to have to play, I think they'll be the 5% GPP play of the day if you want to get wild. If you're not cuckoo for cocoa puffs, I think DRX win here in a likely 2-1.
Top DRX Plays
- Pyosik - JNG
- Chovy - MID
- Keria - SUP
- Deft - ADC
7:00 AM: SeolHaeOne Prince vs. Damwon Gaming (-4000)
That's some number I don't think we've seen the like in a week or so since DWG faced HLE, and they were -3000. We saw them win that one with a score of 38-10, but for fantasy only Canyon and Showmaker were relevant. Often I enjoy theory crafting and trying to come up with ways that the dog can pull off the upset, and I think I get that from watching a lot of the incomparable @Papasmithy cast LCK in the past. He would take time to look at how a losing team could try to turn the match back in their favor, but sometimes things were just too far gone.
This match is one of those I'm afraid, and we might see some SP members have a few bright moments as they try to show out like NFL players at the end of a contract. Franchising arrives in the LCK next season, and although SP's season is well and indeed done, these players still have to show that they are talented and audition for spots next year. DWG quickly sweeps out the side of SeolHaeOne, but it will come down to if they can score enough to pay off their pricing.
Top DWG Plays
- Showmaker - MID
- Canyon - JNG
- Beryl - SUP
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LPL Matches
3:00 AM: LNG (-200) vs. Dominus
This match could be a reak snoozer as the LPL opens early for us on the weekend. LNG comes in on a two-match win streak, and that's something we haven't heard in a while. While we expected the win over Rogue Warriors, the upset of LGD in hindsight can be more judged as LGD taking a game off after celebrating their first playoff bid in four years (a narrative that I am upset with myself for not catching). DMO is still holding steady at the bottom of the standings with only one series, and six games won on the split. They very nearly took a game off they shaky FPX squad, and if you remember that brain-bending ending, I don't think you can call that a positive for the side of DMO.
Both teams are terrible early, and they don't get much better late game. Light has been a late-game win condition previously, and that seems like the play for them here. With current games on Caitlyn and Aphelios, I think we will see more of the same. Coupled with LNG's advantage in barons and slight vision advantage, I feel neither team will establish much of a lead early but that LNG will win late, adding DMO to their wall of conquests. We're going to go aggressive and call for the LNG sweep based on how poor DMO looks.
Top LNG Plays:
- Flandre - TOP
- Light - ADC
- Lwandy - SUP
- Maple - MID
5:00 AM: Estar vs. Edward Gaming (-275)
Now EDG starts playing like we would have loved to see them play all split long. Their growth as a team was stunted with their indecision in the top lane and jungle combined with Hope missing a week. Estar too has had a troubled split with their ADC Wink missing time due to dry eyes. EDG will get an excellent chance to finish out the split on a four-game win streak. Estar has been fine enough early-game, and they have a better first blood than does EDG since patch 10.13 started. EDG tho has the lead in the first turret and rift herald percentage even tho it's not by much. It is in the late game where Estar has fallen off, and EDG has the edge in barons 60% to 25% even with Estar having better vision numbers.
It seems like a lot of Estar's issues stem from communications; they often seem like they're not on the same page, which ends in then making some disjointed plays in the late game. Their top and mid lanes are still liabilities that EDG can expose with Fenfen and Xiaobai being outclassed in lane by Scout and XiaoXang. I like EDG here to continue their angry roll through the league after missing playoffs for the first time since the inception of the LPL. I do like the idea of playing some Estar to hedge, and they could find themselves so far ahead after a great early game where everything breaks their way they can't help but win.
Top EDG Plays:
- Total cop-out, but I like all of EDG, and since their winning streak started, they have INSANE KP numbers. Xiaoxang even rivals Scout with some of his numbers. Yikes!
Top Estar Plays:
- Wei - JNG
- Wink - ADC
- Shiauc - SUP
- Fenfen - MID
7:00 AM: Top Esports (-345) vs. Team WE
LPL saved the best for last, and this will be the game of the week. Both of these teams have struggled in the past few weeks, relative to their early success. WE's recent loss to OMG is not a good sign for this squad, and as I mentioned in the lead up to that one patch 10.15 hurts this team more than some others. Teams have figured out to ban Gallio away from Teacherma, and 10.15 takes Twisted Fate (another global champ) down a tier. Teams are still playing TF across the top regions, but with the cooldown nerfs it received, the priority on the champion is falling off. Teacherma has seen Sylas five games in a row, and WE is 3-2 in those games. Sounds ok right? Not so much those five games were with OMG and Estar currently 15th and 16th (of 17) in the league.
This isn't the type of momentum you want to carry into the playoffs, and if we remember spring, Team WE went on a bit of a miracle run to qualify for playoffs and then continued that heater until TES upended them. Top too are a bit off their game sporting losses to V5, IG, and RNG in recent weeks. That's much better company to keep in the L department than that of WE. TES has devolved a bit since the start of the split, falling into a pattern of Invictus-like behavior. They have been relying on their talent more than their team play, and I am not overly concerned about it as it is a long grueling season in the LPL. I look forward to them regaining focus once the playoffs start, and I think that begins today. Any win will secure them the number one seed, which means not having to face JDG or IG until the finals. We've seen some letdowns from playoff teams recently, but this team is built to takedown the LPL and then the WORLD. They are like Invictus in that they're good and they know it, and I also believe they can flip the switch. Playoff mode TES is going to be frightening.
Now, on the other hand, if you want to rock the boat a bit, WE are in an elite leverage spot. They showed they could hang with TES in the spring playoffs, and you know TES is going to be owned. I'm thinking TES tune-up for the playoffs with a 2-0, but if WE gang up on Jacky/Yuyanjia in the bot lane and force Knight to 1v9 they will break the slate.
Top TES Plays:
- Knight - MID
- Jackeylove - ADC
- Yuyanjia - SUP
- 369 - TOP
Summary
- TLDR - DRX, DWG, LNG, EDG, and TES win, and just like that, I picked all the favorites. EEK! You want UPSETS, and trust me, I know all about #AUGUSTLPL. Well, I think all the dogs are live except for SP.
- Of the favorites, DRX has the lowest kill projection, with DWG being the highest. EDG might be my favorite spot tonight, though. Estar surrender the most deaths in losses, but LNG could be the sneakiest fav as DMO are a hot mess, and some of the bigger name brand teams will certainly pull more ownership.
- For underdogs, WE have the highest raw upside, and probably the best leverage. For numbers, DMO and SBG are hot on their heels. For the likelihood to pull the upset, it might be DMO or Estar.
- It's GREAT GPP slate, even though I typically run 3-5 max entries, tonight would be a great night to drop down and hit the optimizer hard for some mini-max action.
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— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) April 16, 2020
