RADIO
Happy Tuesday, campers, and let’s welcome back the LCK for Wednesday morning’s slate - giving us four matches of LOL action on this slate instead of the two-gamers we have on Mondays and Tuesdays.
We saw Vici pull out a bloody 2-1 win against RW, depriving them of their first win this split (but they get DMO next!). While Estar continued their downward trend this split by dropping their contest with Suning 2-1. The line moved to -220 in Suning’s favor by last night so I ended up increasing my exposure there but I was still disappointed that Estar couldn’t find a way to win that match at low ownership, especially when they had their chances.
I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Wednesday, July 8th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
LCK Matches
4:00 AM Dragon X (-600) vs. KT Rolster
Dragon X are massive favorites here, and I believe we will see this line move further in their favor as lock approaches. DRX is the class of the league so far in summer they are shredding the competition and hold wins over the other top teams they have faced. T1 and Gen G both came up short by a 2-1 margin, and even more impressive for DRX, they beat them both back to back. KT Rolster, on the other hand, has struggled to find the level of success they had in spring. They have only managed wins over HLE and SP thus far, and I'm worried about them in the future.
KT does have an advantage in both first blood, first turret percentage, and rift herald percentage. I'm not, however, worried about DRX getting exploited in the early game. We have seen a few games specifically on the LPL side where one team starts up in kills, but cannot translate that into a lead in gold.
I feel like this could be a similar scenario, KT will feel the need to try to get out of bad lane matchups for them (Chovy>Kuro) and will have to force plays across the map. DRX will likely allow that to happen while winning elsewhere. If KT rotates for the rift herald, I can see Deft and Keria pushing down the entire bot turret down, matching or exceeding any gold gained by KT. Similarly, if Chovy and Pyosik will be able to win in farm over anything, Kuro and Bono achieve while setting up ganks either top or bot. We have seen this in the LPL quite a bit with one jungler patiently waiting setting up a kill, while the opposing number destroys them in farm, which ends up negating any advantage the kill could ever gain. DRX is only second to DWG in gold differential at fifteen minutes, and regardless of whatever shenanigans KT tries to pull early, they will be ahead at the end of the laning phase.
Team fights should also be no contest for DRX, and we have seen KT struggle with their consistency and communication during the mid-game. This DRX squad has been rock solid all year and should cruise to a 2-0 victory.
Top DRX Plays
- Chovy - MID
- Pyosik - JNG
- Deft - ADC
- Keria - SUP
7:00 AM: Sandbox Gaming (-190) vs. Hanwa Life Esports
SBG is suddenly good now that Yamatocannon is with the team, or so I've been told. Yet they did draft Renekton and Olaf together in game two against TD and then sat on their hands only to watch TD get fed. We also saw them behind in game one staring defeat in the face until Guger got caught out around the infernal soul point and changed the face of that game.
What I'm saying is that yes, Yamato provided a boost to his team with his presence, but SBG is not suddenly a good team. Luckily they play HLE today who are honestly awful. They are 0-6 series with only two game wins thus far in the summer split. I mention this every time they are on the slate, but unless you think that Viper and Lehends can legitimately go two versus eight, then HLE are off-limits. SBG weakness is their bottom side, but I don't believe that HLE is worth more than a few deep gpp flyers for a hedge. Sandbox's Yamato buff will continue until they find themselves up against a better team, which isn't HLE. I'll give Viper and Lehends one game, but the series goes over to SBG 2-1. I have SBG projected to be the lowest scorer of anyone in a win so that I will limit myself to small stacks for this one.
Top SBG Plays
- Onfleek - JNG
- Fate - MID
- SBG Team
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: Lining Gaming vs. Victory 5 (-375)
I can say in defense of LNG that their two wins were over two teams that are much better than them. Those two wins are a fond memory for LNG fans as they are nearly a month in the past already. V5 has TES on the horizon, but it isn't until next Monday, so I doubt that will cause them to be distracted on Wednesday. Despite their usual late-game focus, LNG holds an advantage in first blood and rift herald percentage, but it is V5 who gets first turret more often. V5 should be ahead early as they have the second-highest gold differential at 15 minutes int the league behind Top Esports. V5 control monster objectives better as well and have better vision numbers.
V5 has been eschewing the Aphelios pick that is so popular instead opting into Ashe or Ezreal from SamD. Instead choosing to ban the op ADC, and using a beefy engage support pick like Leona or Thresh for PPGod. V5 should be able to have their way with LNG by surviving any early action building up a lead thru their laners and then exploiting that through their mid-game. Focusing on these mid-game style, comps have allowed them to explode from early leads and finish the game before late game comps can come online. Long way around to it, but this should be a comfortable 2-0 for the side of V5.
Top V5 Plays:
- Weiwei - JNG
- SamD - ADC
- PPGod - SUP
- Mole - MID
7:00 AM: Bilibili Gaming vs. Invictus Gaming (-550)
Two man-crushes collide on Wednesday AM when Meteor leads this BLG squad up against Rookie and Invictus gaming. We saw what can happen when your best player suits up for the team last time out for the side of BLG, they decided to put individual problems behind them for the team and found themselves with a win over LNG. That was over a week ago, and so they have had plenty of time to reacclimate themselves to Meteor's presence.
BLG is a team that, not unlike VG, should be smarter than their opponents. They also have a high profile Korean coach and play a more slow controlled style. This playstyle has found success against IG in the past, and even though IG took the spring series this year, BLG managed to push it to three games. 2019 saw BLG win both matches versus IG 2-1 also. It's tough to compare the stats for these teams in either split; Meteor hasn't played for a majority of the summer split, and in the spring, IG was still splitting time with Leyan/Ning. IG has also slowed down and altered their playstyle quite a bit from the spring split.
The salient facts are these. Of the favorites on this slate, I still have IG with the most kills in a win, but with their atrocious kill participation percentages, I don't think they score well enough to justify their prices. BLG have the best history of the underdogs and the most upside. So for me, this is a dog or pass scenario. I like IG, and I think they win the series, but I doubt they sweep, and without benefit of the games not played bonuses, I can't see them paying off their prices, so maybe just target their team slot as a one-off.
Top BLG Plays:
- Meteor - JNG
- Fofo - MID
- Kingen - TOP (sub risk)
Summary
- DRX is a lock in all formats, and I have them with the second-highest kill projection from the favorites. They should pair well either V5 or SBG for cash or single entry GPPs, or BLG if you're going for the gold.
- KT will automatically become the 1% gpp play of the day if you can stomach it, if not, maybe it’s HLE, plug your nose and shoot for the moon.
- All four favorites are close in terms of kill projections with just over a kill separating top from bottom, but the teams kill participation stats will make all the difference, and that's why I don't like IG as much.
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