RADIO
Happy Independence Day, RotoBallers! While we are still weeks away from the return of the NBA and MLB, we are already a third of the way through the summer split for the LPL and LCK.
Take a few minutes from grilling those burgers and dogs, or drinking those adult beverages and let’s talk about the best LOL action on the planet.
I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Sunday, July 5th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM Dragon X (-1000) vs. SeolHaeOne Prince
We all like to procrastinate and push away distasteful tasks until the last minute, and I'm the same way. I will usually write up the easiest to call matches first, saving the difficult calls for later in the day. In a happy accident, I feel like today's slate plays out that way so I can go right down the line. SP is second in the league in total deaths, and the only match they have won this split is against HLE, the league leader in deaths. They do have very slight advantages over DRX in first blood percentage, and rift herald takes, but unless DRX catastrophically blunder around a herald fight, I don't see an avenue for SP to win this one. DRX is a top-five team in the world right now at the very least, and SP aren't even top eight in the LCK.
Top DRX Plays
- Pyosik - JNG
- Deft - ADC
- Keria - SUP
- Chovy - MID
7:00 AM: Afreeca Freecs (-145) vs. KT Rolster
Game two on the LCK side is a much closer matchup than game one by far. KT was able to sweep AFS in the spring split, taking both matches 2-1. I'm not going to weigh that very heavily as AFS has a tumultuous spring campaign. Both teams have struggled with their betters in summer thus far, but AFS did get a game from T1 while KT grabbed one from Gen G. AFS did take out Team Dynamics who downed the side of KT in the opener. KT is a bit better in the early game holding advantages in first turrets, rift heralds, and gold at fifteen minutes. AFS are better late with better vision numbers and dragons, but with a worse baron percentage. Both teams like to emphasize their ADC's and play through the bottom side. Aiming hasn't been quite the immovable force he was in the spring split while Mystic has. I also like the mid-jungle duo from Afreeca better than that of KT. I'll take Afreeca to take down a 2-1 win here. KT are very live dog though here and I will have some exposure to them.
Top AFS Plays
- Mystic - ADC
- Fly - MID
- Spirit - JNG
- Kiin - Top
- Ben - SUP
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: Estar vs. Victory Five (-200)
It seems like the eStar of summer split is now Victory Five, with everyone talking them up as a contender for the LPL title and a worlds run. Estar comes into this match on a three series slide, while V5 is looking to rediscover their winning ways after a hard-fought loss to FPX. The whole team swapped around mole during the break, and while you could say he was the lone bright spot for the team in spring, he is now being overshadowed by the new additions.
The seemingly phallically named bot duo are fantasy darlings, but Weiwei made the biggest contributions to the squad. He and Biubiu in the top lane have stabilized some large deficiencies for V5. Estar remain the more active early game team with better numbers in first blood, and first turret. V5 are the stronger laners, and have been able to turn that into better gold numbers. V5 also leads in all monster objectives. We just saw Estar drop to VG, who, similarly to V5, are good laners and dodged out on a lot of Wei's attempts to influence the bot lane. We did see eStar win game one of that series and hold a 2k gold lead in game three until they got caught out in bot lane surrendering three kills to Iboy and evening things back up for VG.
V5 are everyone's new favorite, and they are very attractively priced. I think V5 is a staple for cash games and single entry gpps, but I have a nagging suspicion that eStar will quiet some of the hype here and steal a 2-1 win. Estar has burned everyone several slates in a row, and with the pricing, I think we'll see V5 being very highly owned. I can't pass up that type of leverage for large field gpps, so hold your nose and shoot your shot with a few eStar stacks on Sunday morning.
Top V5 Plays:
- SamD - ADC
- PPGod - SUP
- WeiWei - JNG
- BiuBiu - TOP
Top ES Plays:
- Wei - JNG
- Fenfen - MID
- Wink - ADC
- ShiauC - SUP
7:00 AM: Royal Never Give Up vs. FunPlus Phoenix (-225)
LPL match of the week anyone? We can finally jump back on Royal here as they are no longer favorites, and therefore, they are good again. LOL. Seriously though, it feels like that sometimes with them. Lineups just released, and RNG is going back to Xiaohu for this one as well Gala. FPX leads this series in the Doinb era 3-1 with an 8-3 game score, and I don't think that RNG making all these swaps is going to help them reverse the trend. The Gala move is questionable at best, but his Kaisa was good last year, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them go with a scaling comp centered around that. I don't think they will make it late enough without FPX blowing their doors off. If I was willing to have a little gamble on the leverage play in the last set, now with this announcement, you have to imagine more players will flock to FPX, but I don't think I can do it with Gala in the lineup. Give me an FPX sweep here as I have to imagine RNG lose game one, then swap at very least Gala back out for Betty, and you know I'm always talking about attacking instability. So TLDR FPX walkover an inconsistent RNG squad.
Top FPX Plays:
- Doinb - MID
- Tian - JNG
- Lwx - ADC
- Khan - TOP
Summary
- I'm willing to risk it for the biscuit on Estar again for some reason, but the double swap for RNG makes that one a bridge too far for me. Likewise, on the LCK side, I will have both sides of the second match, but likely none of the SP side.
- I think the Estar/V5 matchup can go either way and will likely be the best fantasy matchup of all the games tonight. RNG has the most upside if they win, with V5 more than a full kill behind. Estar, DRX, and AFS all have a very similar projection for me, so seeking the safety of DRX is a good play. FPX lags behind as RNG has been slow and passive in their losses this split.
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