RADIO
Hello, eSports enthusiasts, and welcome back to our continued eSports DFS coverage of League of Legends for DraftKings and FanDuel! Last night we saw JDG sweep and LGD fall just short in a 1-2 defeat, so my lineups didn't finish in the cash, but I am undeterred nonetheless to get back after it today.
We finally have the return of the LCK and therefore a return to four-game slates, which I enjoy so much more than the two-gamers. We have a few tight spreads tonight as it should be an interesting slate. As always, I am going to do my best to give you high-quality analysis and actionable advice for tomorrow morning's DFS slate.
Today I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Thursday, July 30th, 2020. If you're not already, then make sure you follow me on Twitter @Hofferkid!
LCK Matches
Afreeca Freecs (-550) vs. Hanwha Life eSports
Afreeca comes in fresh off of a win over SP as they continue their playoff push. Meanwhile, HLE is the bottomfeeder of this league having picked up only one win all split. AF has slight advantages in both first turret and first blood percentages. Afreeca also holds an edge in all three primary neutral objectives (Dragons, Heralds, Barons). They also have a better gold differential at 15 minutes. This one was an easy one, as I fully expect AF to take this 2-0 no problem. HLE is just plain bad, and Afreeca is a high-end second-tier team in this league.
Mystic holds the best kill participation on the team at 72.5%. AF wins every individual lane matchup here and there isn't much more analysis needed here. AF does scare me as a full-stack because this should be a low kill total match. However, they should bring us some safe sweep bonuses and I like taking the team slot at a minimum from the side of AF. The TOP position is another one where I like to target sweep bonuses, therefore I like Kiin a good bit. I assume AF will be somewhat chalky, but I like them in this spot.
The pick: Freecs, 2-0
Top AF plays:
- Mystic - ADC
- Fly - MID
- Kiin - TOP
- AF Team Slot
DragonX (-115) vs. DAMWON Gaming (-120)
Here we go, the top two squads in the league face off here and battle for that #1. DRX took this series 2-1 in the first half of the split. DWG has the first turret advantage while DRX holds the better first blood percentage. DRX has very small advantages in dragon and baron rates, with DWG having better herald control. DWG has an absolutely insane gold differential at 15 minutes (+3094) as they love to get ahead early and snowball games. Unfortunately for them, DRX ikes to do the same thing, and though DWG may have a slight advantage in the early game, I think DRX can survive and keep it close early and snowball the mid/late game.
I picked DRX to win 2-1 last time these two faced off, and I will do the exact same thing here and say DRX 2-1. Chovy takes on Showmaker in the MID lane as that is by far the best lane 1v1 on the slate and should be very fun to watch. The JNG/MID duo of Pyosik and Chovy my favorite DRX mini stack, as both hold KP percentages in the mid-70s. At the end of the day though you don't really need to play a side from this game as there are plenty of other spots on the slate and this is a very tough game to predict. But if you do want to play it, I side with DRX.
The pick: DRX, 2-1
Top DRX plays:
- Chovy - MID
- Pyosik - JNG
- Deft - ADC
- Keria - SUP
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LPL Matches
Top Esports (-315) vs. Suning Gaming
TES dropped their most recent match to IG, losing 0-2. Suning is coming off a win over OMG and they are having a great split sitting at 9-3. SN has a small first turret edge, with TES having a better first blood percentage. TES has better neutral objectives control as they hold advantages in dragon, herald, and baron rates. I think Suning matches up well with this TES squad and I expect them to steal a game tonight, but at the end of the day, I think TES grinds out a 2-1.
TES will win this match by being who they are, dominating every lane creating a gold lead early, and taking that straight into team fights. It will be extremely tough for Angel to get anything going in the MID lane. I do believe Sofm has a jungle advantage over Karsa, but that's about it. It is really tough for me to continue to write against my favorite team, Suning. But just wait until playoffs and I'll be all over these guys. I don't plan on full-stacking this game as Suning continually takes series to three games while limiting upside on both sides. 369 and knight are my favorite plays/mini stack from this TES side.
The pick: Top Esports, 2-1
Top TES plays:
- knight - MID
- 369 - TOP
- Yuyanjia - SUP
- Jackeylove - ADC
Victory Five(-180) vs. Team World Elite
V5 comes in on a cold streak dropping their last two matches. WE on the other hand has won three of their last four. This is a very important match in terms of playoff seeding so I expect both these teams to be going all out. First turret and first blood percentages are dead even between the two squads. WE have the edge in dragon and herald rates, with V5 having better baron rates. V5 has a +1007 gold differential at 15-minute while WE sits at -324. I'll jump straight to it. I like V5 to win here and I like them to do it 2-0. Weiwei and Samd have been absolutely terrific all split, with Weiwei holding an insane KP% (kill participation) of 76.1%.
I like V5 here for one main reason, and that is because they are just flat out too smart. They draft well (usually) and put together elite game plans as we saw against TES when they absolutely eliminated Jackeylove from that series. I like them to shut down Teacherma tonight and for WE, if Teach isn't on a comfort pick it almost seems like the whole composition is messed up and they just sink. V5 is ky favorite stack on the slate and I'll be loading up on a 4man here. Also, don't sleep on Mole, people typically tend to but he has slate breaking upside in this spot.
The pick: Victory Five, 2-0
Top V5 plays:
- Weiwei - JNG
- Samd - ADC
- ppGod - SUP
- Mole - MID
Summary
1. AF, DRX, TES, and V5 win. V5 is my favorite stack on the slate.
2. WE is my favorite dog followed by SN and they both definitely bring upside to the table.
3. My favorite one-offs for FD players are Kiin, 369, Mystic, and Chovy
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