RADIO
Hello again my dear LOL friends and welcome back to another weekend edition of my LPL/LCK picks and analysis here at RotoBaller!
OMG did not get it done, but they sure kept Vici off the scoreboard. Yikes! Between that and Gen G finding a way to lose to DRX/Chovy popping off it was another "meh" day in the LOL streets. I'm looking forward to the LPL teams firing it up tonight and pushing that scoring back up.
Let's hop back in the saddle again as I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel locking at 4:00 AM on Sunday, July 26th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM SeolHaeOne Prince vs. Sandbox Gaming (-360)
Part one of the LCK's toilet bowl to end week six of the summer split features our seventh-place team in SBG versus our ninth-place team SP. Even though these teams are "close" in the standings, they sit further apart than seventh and ninth would indicate. We just saw last week these two teams meet, and SBG won that matchup 2-1, but even game two which SP won, was a tight affair with them winning despite only being up one kill. Sandbox gaming has gained some identity and momentum since the coach swap, and I believe that's more than enough for them to carry the day versus SP again here.
Looking at the last three weeks, we can see that SBG has turned up its early game focus. They lead SP in the first turret rate, rift herald, first drake, and gold differential at fifteen minutes. SBG does hold the lead in first blood, but that's their only slight advantage compared to SBG. SBG is the second-biggest favorite on the slate, and SP has been playing lost in recent weeks. SBG has been playing with a purpose, and that's often enough, especially when trying to separate these lower-tier teams. I'll take SBG here for the sweep, and since the two games they won in the last meeting were entirely one-sided affairs, I believe they can improve on that and not drop the one in the middle.
Top SBG Plays
- Onfleek - JNG
- FATE - MID
- Route - ADC
- Gorilla - SUP
7:00 AM: KT Rolster (-120) vs. Team Dynamics
In the LCK, this split there is a hard line between the haves and the have nots. Afreeca represents that line, and the teams below them have a hard time rising above it. Four teams are world championship-caliber (sadly though the LCK only gets to send three to the event), AFS is the gatekeeper of playoffs, and then there's everyone else. This match is the best of the rest as sixth play seventh in an attempt to climb nearer that LCK glass ceiling that exists. I'm having a hard time seeing why KT Rolster is the favorite in this one.
Team Dynamics is the only one of the have nots of the LCK that seems capable of rising above their station. They have their series win over T1 to hang their hat on while KT has their one victory over DRX, but in that win, I feel that DRX was caught off guard by KT's lineup change, which was brought on due to sickness. DRX handled them in the rematch. TD has not won much in the last few weeks, and I think that is what has led to KT being the favorites here. During the last two weeks, though, we have seen TD go up against Gen G twice, DRX, DWG, and T1. They managed to knock off T1 and show well despite being outclassed versus DRX. Aiming is the best player in this matchup, and if you want to bet on his talent, I won't stop you. I think TD is the better team, and I'll take them to win here as they did in spring 2-1.
Top TD Plays
- Rich - TOP
- Beyond - JNG
- Kuzan - MID
- TD Team
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: BLG vs. JDG
Oh BLG, you could have been a contender, but then they decided to waste an entire split playing without my boy. Now it's too late to worm their way back into my good graces. JDG hasn't lost to BLG since 2018, and they're not about to start now. BLG will have to start early if they want to reverse this two-year trend. They have the tools to do it as they lead JDG in first blood, the first turret, and rift herald percentage. JDG will counter this by doing what they do, namely, being farm monsters. They lead the league in CSM, which they use to amass early gold leads. Don't be surprised to see Kanavi on something like Graves or Nidalee then not see him again for fifteen minutes while he hoovers up all the jungle camps he can. JDG favors this strategy, allowing their jungler to pop back on the scene for more meaningful mid-game fights around second or third drakes or barons. They are second to last in the first dragon percentage in the league, but third in the league in overall dragons taken rate. I don't think BLG will be able to proactive enough early to push JDG off their mid-game spikes, and I like JDG to sweep.
Top JDG Plays:
- Loken - ADC
- Kanavi - JNG
- LvMao - SUP
- Zoom - TOP
7:00 AM: Invictus Gaming vs. Top Esports (-215)
They can't keep getting away with it, can they? You have to keep thinking this about IG, and I think the answer is Yes, BUT. Yes, they can, but not tonight. Invictus have started to get themselves into playoff shape bringing back Baolan into the bot lane. That alone may be enough to have moved this line closer than it opened. Invictus is good enough to beat anyone on any given night. We recently saw TES buckle under the pressure of relentless bot dives from V5 seemingly laying down a pattern of success versus TES. Taking advantage of Jackeylove's aggression is a valid way to try to take advantage of TES, but I think the V5 loss had more to do with TES being on a short turn around coming off a big win over rivals FPX than it did V5 solving TES. Much like FPX last year, TES feel inevitable. They have a gravitas that no one else can match right now. They also have a statistical advantage over IG in every measurable category, even IG's newfound focus on drakes doesn't help them overcome TES in that category. You'll often hear me say that when top teams clash, they tighten up a bit in a playoff atmosphere. I doubt this is the case here, and there will be fireworks on Sunday morning. I think TES win, but will probably play an IG line or two as well. If IG wins, they break the slate, but both teams average over 18 deaths in their losses.
Top TES Plays:
- Knight - MID
- Jackeylove - ADC
- Karsa - JNG
- Yuyuanjia - SUP
Top IG Plays:
- Ning - JNG
- Puff - ADC
- Baolan - SUP
- Theshy - TOP
Summary
- TLDR - SBG, TD, JDG, and TES win. Dynamics is going to be super popular tonight. I believe as their low prices will help people load up on TES and JDG. JDG is projected a hair below the winner of the IG/TES series for raw kills and should be a lock to win.
- SBG might be a nice pivot off some of the LPL chalk; they are projected a kill and a half lower than any of the possible LPL winners, but they should come lower-owned. If SP put up a good early game, I can see SBG scoring on par with the other faves.
- After a couple of big hits, I'm sure that the support captain lineups will return in droves tonight as people look to hammer in both TES and JDG. I prefer running a few KT/SBG/TD pieces to get up to a TOP or JNG support.
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