RADIO
Hey there everyone! I’m back after another multi-day lay-off but I know my comrade Hofferkid has been keeping you in the know for these LPL and LCK marches in my absence. #TeamNoDaysOff needs a reset and I’m glad to be finally able to be back to analyze tomorrow morning’s 4-game slate.
After all four big favorites won last night (although JDG made it interesting), we have a few viable underdogs on this slate and some really intriguing matchups in both the LCL and LCK.
Let's hop back in the saddle again as I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel locking at 4:00 AM on Friday, July 24th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM Sandbox Gaming vs. Damwon Gaming (-200)
Let me start by saying I'm a little suspicious of this line, and if you think about it you should be too. We've got the second best team in the league, probably top ten in the world by most accounts, taking on the seventh-ranked team in the league. Although SBG is getting the Yamato buff still, they should be no match for the like of DWG. That should be the case, but you can see that historically this has been a close series.
Since joining the league together in 2018, DWG holds a slight 3-5 advantage in series won with a 9-12 lead in games score. DWG has won two in a row from SBG, but one was a 2-1 at the end of spring and SBG won the first meeting of the year in a 2-0. So you can see the history of the two squads is very close, and I think that's what's keeping this line close.
Even if you break down the stat lines for both teams since the arrival of Yamatocannon, you see that DWG has been the much better team early. SBG is trending up in terms of their early macro play, but still lags behind DWG. On the split, DWG has a 45% first blood rate, 95% first turret, 80% rift herald take, and an astonishing 100% first three turrets. Even with the increase in their early gameplay SBG can't match these numbers. DWG also has sizeable leads in drakes and barons. Everything is pointing to a DWG win, and I'll take them to sweep here. I like the idea of riding on some history and taking a couple of gpp shots on SBG, and you have certainly heard me describe DWG as the IG of the LCK, which is quite high praise, as well as some serious shade.
They are among the best teams in the league, but can be prone to dropping games to some of the worst teams. We haven't seen it yet this split, with their two losses being to DRX ad Gen G, but in the spring, we saw this with DWG even losing a 2-0 near the end of the split to a soon to be relegated Griffin squad.
Top DWG Plays
- Showmaker - MID
- Beryl - SUP
- Nuguri - TOP
- Damwon Team
7:00 AM: Afreeca Freeecs (-650) vs. SeolHaeOne Prince
So to further illustrate the odd line in the first LCK game, we can see this is the fifth team versus the ninth team in the league, and number five is a -650 favorite. Afreeca drilled SP in their first meeting in summer, and I expect them to do so again. Afreeca is slightly better early, and much better late game than is SP. SP holds a slight advantage in first blood percentage, but AFS leads in first turret, rift herald, and gold differential at fifteen minutes. Neither team is good early, and it's just that AFS is less bad, and the gold differential is in their favor by negative 1300 to negative 1900.
Whenever I talk about AFS, I'll always mention Mystic, and his matchup today with Hybrid is a nice one for him. Hybrid was one of the bright spots for this SP roster in the spring, but he has had trouble getting going in the summer split. Mystic and Hybrid share almost equal CS and Gold numbers on their respective team, but Mystic does SO much more with it. Mystic holds s 20% lead in kill participation, a 10% lead in kill share, and leads in DPM 593 to 414. Most Afreeca games come down to whether or not they can keep the game close early so that Mystic can carry late, and I don;t see SP being able to blow AFS out of the game before Mystic can come online.
Top AFS Plays
- Mystic - ADC
- Fly - MID
- Kiin - TOP
- Ben - SUP
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: Victory Five (-200) vs. Suning Gaming
We've got Super Suning coming in on a six-match winning streak, ever since I said they would beat EDG, and they didn't; they have looked themselves like a top team. V5 has made a complete 180 from their disastrous spring split and are themselves looking to be a playoff contender. These two teams are very even statistically with Suning holding a 3% lead in first blood, and a 4% lead in rift herald takes, but V5 has a better first turret rate by 4%, along with a 6% lead in drakes and 7% in barons. These are very even numbers across the board with neither team able to create a significant advantage.
The difference for me in this matchup is in the players themselves, where I give SNG an advantage. Am I really going to pick against the PPGod? I can already hear the flames on twitter.com. Whatever bring em on V5 has suddenly become a huge public team because everyone loves their seemingly phallically named bot lane duo, and a huge upset over TES helps as well.
Meanwhile, SNG has been quietly performing very well over the summer split too. One of the big reasons I liked EDG over VG a few days ago is because Iboy played for years on EDG, and no one should know his strengths and weaknesses better than that EDG squad. Most of the public perception of this V5 team rides in the bot lane, but it is their jungler Weiwei that has made the biggest impact on their play this split. He and Biubiu have helped shore up some huge weakness for this squad, and that's allowed Mole, in particular, to play within himself and not get overextended.
The trouble is that Weiwei and Biubiu are both on loan from SNG, and started in their youth team in 2018. So two of the players that have had the most significant impact on V5's improvement in the summer are initially players from SNG with whom their staff have intimate knowledge. That is a big deal-breaker for the side of V5. Give me SNG to win here with the 2-1 upset. Nothing is absolute, and I think you can hedge this matchup on Friday morning. V5 will be the higher upside play in terms of raw kill numbers, but I think I'll be getting a significant ownership discount on the SNG side.
Top SNG Plays:
- SofM - JNG
- Angel - MID
- Bin - TOP
- Swordart - SUP
Top V5 Plays:
- Weiwei - JNG
- PPGod - SUP
- SamD - ADC
7:00 AM: Royal Never Give Up vs. LGD (-125)
RNG aren't favorites, so the flow chart is in effect. You know the one, RNG favorites: YES- Fade them NO - Fire em up! Unfortunately for me, I likely won’t be following the chart today. Peanut gives XLB trouble in the jungle, and that's how to stop this RNG squad. We saw LGD take a 2-0 in spring with a much inferior roster to the one they are currently fielding. RNG also lost to RW in the spring with Haro dominating the early jungle matchup.
LGD holds leads in the first turret, rift herald, dragons, barons, and gold differential at 15 minutes. Royal is slightly better in first blood numbers and vision control. LangX will also be looking for that revenge narrative after switching teams between splits. Why do I count that as a positive while in the last matchup, it was seen as a negative? LangX joined RNG as a hired gun, and in my opinion, they never used him properly. These teams are very close with LGD currently sitting seventh, while RNG is ninth just outside of the playoffs. Both sides are likely in play, but I lean to LGD with a repeat 2-0 performance from spring. RNG is one of the slowest LPL and tends to be very passive in their losses, only giving up just over 13 deaths in their losses.
Top LGD Plays:
- Peanut - JNG
- Xiye - MID
- Kramer - ADC
- Mark - SUP
Top RNG Plays:
- Betty - ADC
- XLB - JNG
- Ming - SUP
Summary
- TLDR - DWG, AFS, SNG, and LGD win. Outside of the ownership discount I see on the side of SNG, most of the upside on the slate lies in the LCK favorites. Both SP and SBG average more deaths in losses of any team on the LPL side, SP especially.
- Those numbers are a little unexpected, and I think that we may catch some folks napping just jamming in LPL favorites like usual.
- Of all the longshot underdogs, SP probably has the best raw upside if they can get on top of AFS early since the Freecs are second on the slate in surrendering kills in their losses. So I foresee myself having a lot of that matchup on both sides with the potential for some sloppy play leading to more kills.
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