RADIO
I’m back, RotoBallers! #TeamNoDaysOff finally needed a day off but you better believe that I was playing this morning’s slate and watching the games.
I feel like a brand new man, it’s amazing what a green day will do for a guy after a little slump. Now that we've broken out with a profitable day, I can't wait to turn that into a streak as we roll into the holiday weekend.
I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Friday, July 3rd, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM KT Rolster (-195) vs. Shoelhaewon Prince
Both of these teams have struggled to open the split as they both sit at 1-3 after two weeks. Their only win is also both against HLE, who look a bit lost this split. Statistically, the teams are very close. Their first blood and first turret rates are within three percent of each other, and their gold differential at 15 minutes is less than 1% different. SP has better objective control, but worse vision numbers. I like the top lane and bot lane matchups for KT and the mid-jungle duo for SP.
The mid-jungle difference plus the objective stats lead me to side with SP in this matchup, and I think they score better in a win as they are the higher paced team. So I will take the dog or pass approach and roll with SP in this one. I think it's a reasonable match to split exposure on with the teams being so close. This match is another spot were trying to predict the ownership could sway my thoughts on which side to play.
Top SP Plays
- Mickey - MID
- Flawless - JNG
- Ikksu - Top
Top KT Plays
- Aiming - ADC
- Tusin - SUP
- Bono - JNG
- Smeb - TOP
7:00 AM: T1 (-130) vs. Gen G
T1 dominated this matchup in the spring, going 3-0 in series with Gen G and 7-2 in game score. In the lead up to the DWG-T1 series, I mentioned T1's success on Gen G and other teams like them who play a standard game of League of Legends. T1 may be in for a surprise on Friday morning, as Gen G seems to have taken notes from their LPL brethren at the Mid-Season Cup. Gen G are now third in the league in combined kills per minute, and fourth in average game time. They are ranked first in the LCK in early game rating via Oracle's Elixir. T1 might have their hands full here with a bit different Gen G team than they expect. Both sides have played the other two from the top four of the LCK. T1 lost to both DRX and DWG going 1-4 in game score, while Gen G split their series beating DWG and ending on 3-3 games.
T1 has been experimenting with Elim over Cuzz in the jungle, and Elim's champion pool seems to suit this meta better. He has been the better early game player and a better farmer. I expect him to get the start again on Friday, but we will not have confirmation before lock. If he does start, it will give T1 a boost to their early game that they will need. If it is Elim, T1 will lose out on some of their vaunted vision control, which they will need in the late game. T1 has uncharacteristically struggled with the late game, especially versus decisive teams like DWG.
If we see Gen G come out and take an early lead as I suspect they will, they can force the side of T1 into some poor positions. T1 also has a bad habit of drafting sub-optimally and forcing their players to outplay in-game to make the team comp function. I like Gen G here, especially at a discount on both sites, and I'll take them to win here with a 2-1 finish. I have concerns that this may be a popular play with the T1 loss to DWG being fresh in everyone's mind. I will closely watch this line as well as other sources around the industry to gauge ownership carefully. If I think Gen G is going over-owned, I will love T1 because anytime I can get an ownership discount on a game I think is close, I'll gladly take it. The Life/Kellin situation continues to infuriate DFS players, and with this being the late game, the Gen G support is unusable if you're only building 1-5 lineups. Gen G has alternated the spot the last few weeks, and so playing whoever played last hasn't worked. I'm not about to tell you to play Life because Kellin plays last and they've been swapping. I'll tell you to play Life if you feel dangerous because he played both the DWG and the DRX series, so I feel like GenG views him as the top option.
Top Gen G Plays
- Ruler - ADC
- Rascal - TOP
- Bdd - MID
- Gen G Team
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: Top Esports (-2000) vs. LNG
There have been several huge upsets in the LPL this split so far and anytime we see a number like this the worry begins to creep in. Even TES, a team most would say is the best in the world right now, haven't been immune to down performances versus bad teams. TES went full three games versus OMG, not that long ago. Part of this is due to the busy schedule in the LPL. After the OMG series, TES had a three-day turnaround before facing LGD, another top team in the league. If I was prepping for two sets within a week one with the 13th team in the league and one versus the fourth-place team at the time, I know into which I'd put more effort.
Call it overconfidence, a trap game, or overlooking an opponent whatever you will, but I think its a viable way to view some of these big upsets. I must have a point here, right? I do and I don't because TES face FPX in a clash of the titans of the LPL, but that matchup is over a full week away for TES. So that's a long way around of saying that I am not worried about TES overlooking LNG here in this one.
LNG will try to do what they do and take this game as late as possible, and try to take TES down to one big final team fight at 40 minutes. TES will have none of that, they can win lane and win game; they can rotate and overload, or you could even see them run an early invade to be able to jump ahead from level 1. They have too many ways to blow this game open early, middle or late (JackeyLove on Kaisa anyone?), and LNG should pose no real threat to them on Friday.
Top TES Plays:
- Knight - MID
- Jackeylove - ADC
- Karsa - JNG
- Yuyanjia - SUP
7:00 AM: Vici Gaming vs. Estar (-130)
Man, oh man, just what I needed after a little time off - a return to Vici Gaming tilt. Every time I declare them dead to me, they keep coming back with winnable matchups that they should be able to exploit, and I feel like I'm in a Taylor Swift song. Except this time, we might actually get back together. Vici have become more active in the early game and have an advantage in first blood percentage. Estar has a much better first turret rate despite VG having a better herald percentage. Both teams place a high priority on dragons, especially early where they are first and second in the league. Overall the edge goes to Estar in the monster objectives; they lead in dragons and barons while also holding a slight edge in vision numbers. Estar also has the lead in gold, gold at 15, and damage output.
VG is playing Leyan and Zeka, and I hate to say it, but that seems like a marginal improvement for them. I think when it comes down to it, I can't trust VG versus any decent team right now. They are in flux, and a win over a terrible LNG squad isn't enough to convince me that they're trending up yet. Give me Estar to win out 2-1 over a still struggling VG squad.
Top ES Plays:
- Wei - JNG
- ShiauC - SUP
- Wink - ADC
- FenFen - MID
Summary
- Three of these four games are very close, and I like watching these betting lines for ownership hints. If it seems the public is moving one way or another, I'm prepared to move accordingly. All the dogs are live again today, minus LNG, I believe. So the best GPP play will be to play against the most owned favorite for the best leverage.
- TES is a lock for cash games, but eventually, they're going to get hit a series where they roll over a passive team without being very bloody. Tonight could be the night, but its a tough fade in any format.
- Gen G looks good to me with their new, more action-packed style, but if T1 can blunt that approach, we might see them be a surprisingly high scoring team tonight. We'll see if the LCK pace up trend holds.
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More ESports DFS Analysis
RotoBaller Testimonials
Readers of RotoBaller's eSports DFS articles have been winning money on DraftKings and FanDuel regularly. Some of them are winning contests daily and bringing in some serious cheddar. Check one out below and lots more here!
Did you read a RotoBaller article and win too? Send us your screenshots on Twitter @RotoBaller and we'll add it to our winners Hall Of Fame!
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— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) April 16, 2020
