RADIO
OMG got it done for me yesterday though it was a rough go to be sure. I managed to put together some non-cashing combos even though I was on winning teams, and HLE disappointed to sink my other lineups.
It’s like that sometimes - one pivot or two can cost you first place or even min-cash. You know we're back on that grind today though as #TEAMNODAYSOFF continues to roll on.
I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Thursday, June 25th, 2020. Make sure you are following me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
LCK Matches
4:00 AM Dragon X (-1400) vs. SandBox
Poor Sandbox Gaming, but looking on the bright side, they can't get relegated! Sandbox is at the mercy of the schedule masters, and I don't know if they'll recover. They're going to have to wait until Week 4 before they can find themselves in a matchup that they will be the betting favorites.
DRX again look like a top team in the league and a genuine contender for worlds. They'll have every advantage in this matchup even though they have taken a step backward in their early game; they remain several steps ahead of the likes of SBG.
This match is an easy sweep call for DRX, but I don't know how much of them I will have. Some of the other matchups look more exciting from a fantasy standpoint, so that I will look for small stacks and the team slot.
Top DRX Plays:
- Pyosik - JNG
- Chovy - MID
- Keria - SUP
- Deft - ADC
- DRX Team
7:00 AM: Damwon Gaming vs. Gen G Esports (-175)
Gen G comes into this matchup as the favorite, but as a more significant favorite than I would imagine given how the season is playing out thus far. Gen G has lost too DRX and struggled with KT Rolster, while DWG has stomped SP and SBG. So while there is a wide gap between the strength of schedule with these two teams, there is also a gap between the way both sides have handled it as well.
DWG looks like a juggernaut in the league, and I expect public opinion to pull this line closer by lock. If that is the case, then I'll likely end up with more Gen G. DWG is a very live dog here, and I expect them to be highly owned. They will likely end up just like Team Dynamics from yesterday.
If Gen G comes out ahead, it will be from playing through the bottom side of the map. Bdd will look to push out and roam bot along with Clid to see that Ruler and (probably) Life can get on top of the matchup with Ghost and Beryl. DWG will play through their solo laners like usual we should see Nuguri on something like Jayce where he can win lane, or the Wukong where he can influence team fights.
DWG are first turret gods and have a very high rift herald percentage, but surprisingly Gen G has a higher rift herald percentage in summer. I don't think either team will be able to play a scaling type of gameplan. Whoever gets off the better start should be able to complete the snowball and finish the game on time. I think it will be Gen G as they were the better early game team in the spring split, and showed a bit better at the MSC.
Again, I will be tracking these lines up until lock, and that still can affect my ownership. With this being the late game on the LCK side, we won't know who is starting on the side of Gen G, and so I can't recommend one or the other of Life and Kellin. If you're willing to risk a zero, you can try and pick one.
Top Gen G Plays:
- Bdd - MID
- Clid - JNG
- Ruler - ADC
- Gen G Team
Top DWG Plays:
- Nuguri - TOP
- Canyon - JNG
- Showmaker - MID
- DWG Team
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: Royal Never Give Up (-250) vs. Victory 5
We're going to make the joke every time that RNG is a favorite they dive, and until they hold up their end of the bargain, it's going to be fair dues. Chalk RNG has bitten us all a time or two, but I don't think they will today. We've seen V5 stacking up to be a middle of the table LPL team, although it is a vast improvement over the last split I don't think it's enough to compete with the top tier LPL teams.
Royal has gotten back on track after the loss to LNG, and that's due in part to better drafts. When they are forced to give over Aphelios they have done a good job drafting comps that can harass the op ADC and not let him scale comfortably. They have also done well to protect the pick when it is on their side.
With a better mid jungle duo by far, RNG should have the leg up in this matchup, and that reduces the V5 side to a deep Gpp type of play. V5 will likely be trying to force plays around the map to create numbers advantages, but RNG will be a step ahead trading smartly across the map.
Top RNG Plays:
- XLB - JNG
- Betty - ADC
- Ming - SUP
- Xiaohu - MID
7:00 AM: FPX (-190) vs. IG
We saw IG play some of their signature brand of league of legends vs. LGD on Monday, but with a twist. Rookie was the one who was caught out in a game-ending mistake instead of Ning or Theshy. We've seen this IG squad finding some identity in the current meta. They have focused on dragons and scaling into the late game.
Theshy has been on Kayle or Quinn while Puff has play Aphelios almost exclusively. Rookie continues to amaze and keep his name in the discussion as a tip mid laner in the world. FPX has been playing top lane carries with Khan, but they have done well playing around Aphelios. It seems they learned their lesson after the loss to LNG, and that is how to counter the scaling type of comp that IG has begun to institute.
Outside of the loss in the opening week of the spring split, this FPX squad has had IG's number sweeping them out of the playoffs and winning 3-1 in the semifinals of worlds. I like them to continue that trend as we just saw IG lose to the great value version of FPX a week ago. Theshy vs. Khan will be an exciting matchup, especially with theshy waking up a bit the last few games.
Ning has definitely regained some of his missing for as well, and even though I think FPX win this I will have split exposure as it is likely that whoever wins this matchup will be the top scorers on the slate.
Top FPX Plays:
- Doinb - MID
- Khan - TOP
- Lwx - ADC
- Crisp - SUP
Top IG Plays:
- Ning - JNG
- Rookie - MID
- Southwind - SUP
- Puff - ADC
Summary
- Summer split has so far seen the LCK stepping up the pace of their game to meet or even exceed the LPL, but I think tonight's top matchups is the FPX/IG game. If DWG beats Gen G they should also score very well, and I expect them to be like Dynamics yesterday or LGD the day before.
- Even in defeat, DWG only fails to pay off their underdog prices if they get swept, which I don't see happening. DWG with either RNG or DRX will likely be the chalkiest combo of any.
- RNG and DRX should both sweep, and they will need to. In these slower matchups, they will need the games not played bonuses to pay off their prices. IG/FPX and DWG/GEN G will be my primary targets with sprinkles from the others.
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