RADIO
Hey everyone! Thanks for joining me for another edition of my League of Legends picks for tomorrow morning’s LPL/LCK DFS slate. After two nights of two-gamers we welcome back the Korean league for a full four-game LoL DFS slate Wednesday morning.
Things went down the way they thought they might Tuesday morning. JDG got back on track with a sweep of DMO, and LGD picked up the win in a series that could have gone either way.
I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Wednesday, June 24th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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LCK Matches
4:00 AM Team Dynamics (-125) vs. SHO Prince (-110)
This match could surprisingly be the top fantasy game of the night. Team Dynamics continued their strong start to the split looking impressive even in a loss to AFS. SeolHaeOne Prince likewise had a good week one dusting HLE and, in turn, getting rebuffed by DWG.
There is no shame there as that DWG squad looks like one of the best teams in the league right now as well. This match seems like a close one, and a sneaky fantasy producer. The LCK as a whole seems to have found a new gear after the MSC, and that's bringing more of these matches into play for DFS.
It's tough to get the stats right for this matchup due to Dynamics recent promotion. Looking at spring stats don't help too much with Dynamics having played lesser competition. This line opened as a pick-em now we are seeing TD moving to a slight favorite. If this continues up until lock, I can see myself taking the perceived ownership discount on DK by taking more SP players in my lineups. If it stays close, then the play will be to take the discount on the cheaper players and go with Team Dynamics.
I like Dynamics to win here, but that's an extension of how they seem to be carrying over their momentum and coordination from challengers into the promotion tournament, and now into the LCK. I also give them an advantage in the top half of the map and the continuity advantage. SP is still adjusting to integrating Mickey to the lineup, an upgrade from Cover, but it will take time for them to adjust from what had been a single carry setup.
Top Team Dynamic Plays:
- Rich - TOP
- Beyond - JNG
- Kuzan - MID
- Guger - SUP
Top SP Plays:
- Hybrid - ADC
- Secret - SUP
- Mickey - MID
- Ikksu - TOP
7:00 AM: KT Rolster (-245) vs. Hanwa Life Esports
Each of these teams come in following a loss that improved their standing in my eyes. KT lost to Gen G 2-1, and HLE by the same score to T1. Both of them looked lost in their openers vs. TD and SP, respectively. We saw KT Rolster take both sets in the spring 2-0, but as I mentioned for their opener, HLE adding Viper to the fold is amazing. Again in the spring they had literally no ADC, and have gone from -10 to +10.
In that spring split, we saw an unmotivated Griffin side with Viper take a 1-1 split with this KT squad. I imagine that we will see the youth movement from the side of HLE with DuDU, CAD, and Mireu; the kids played all three games in the loss to T1. I expect KT to go the other direction and start Smeb and Kuro, hoping their experience can continue to improve.
Both sides of the matchup are searching for consistency with new pieces on both sides. Only two matches into the season in the LCK, we don't have a good sample to draw from with the team or player stats. KT disappointed as a favorite day one in the LCK, and I look for them to do the same thing here.
At the very least, this is a pick-em type of matchup, and I think KT will be some bad chalk again. We saw Viper's Griffin squad win both sets vs. KT in the spring, and they were relegated. This version of HLE is better than that version of Griffin, and I think we're going to get them at a discount both on DK and in ownership.
Top HLE Plays:
- Viper - ADC
- Lehends - SUP
- CAD - JNG
- DuDu - TOP
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: OMG vs. LNG (-180)
Another bottom of the table clash in the LPL this time, and this one - like its LCK counterpart - is going to be rough. In the spring, we saw OMG take this one 2-1, but LNG has made a few changes since then. LNG secured a couple of big wins so far this split beating RNG and FPX, but they sandwiched that between a couple of expected losses to SNG and Estar.
OMG started slow, to say the very least, before looking solid versus TES. They followed that up with a gimme over the likes of DMO. I think you all know that I don't believe that LNG is legit even though they have some impressive victories on the split.
OMG made a break from their old style a bit to become more proactive. They have better gold and turret differential to this LNG squad at fifteen minutes. LNG have better dragon numbers and baron percentage, while OMG have a slight vision advantage. We have seen this LNG team continue to draft for extreme late game, in a sense daring their opponents to beat them before their comp comes online. LNG has the third-longest game time in the LPL, and that's just how they like it.
OMG should be ahead early in these games both due to their better laners building farm advantages, but with their new playstyle. The real question is, can they hold and grow that lead far enough to finish the game before LNG get to an unbeatable late game point. We have seen better teams than OMG not be able to beat the clock that LNG put on them. It is a measure of my distrust of these LNG victories over FPX and Royal that I think OMG return to their status as gatekeepers for the LPL.
I'll take OMG to win this battle of the bottoms. Likely 2-1, but this could go either way, and I have LNG projected for more kills if they come out ahead. I like OMG, but I think this a good spot to hedge.
Top OMG Plays:
- Curse - TOP
- Icon - MID
- OMG Team
Top LNG Plays:
- Xx - JNG
- Light - ADC
- Duan - SUP
- Chenlun17 - TOP
7:00 AM: BLG vs. TES (-1600)
I know everyone wants to look to chase these insane underdog picks ever since LNG and FPX ruined it for everyone. If you're looking for an excuse to pick up the side of BLG here, it's pretty slim pickings. LGD tested TES last week, and TES will have another match with a playoff team on Friday with EDG. So is it possible they overlook this struggling BLG squad a bit, yes? It’s not likely and even if they do, would it even matter? I doubt it.
This TES team is the class of the LPL right, and they could sleepwalk through this matchup. TES is in the top five in every relevant stat in the LPL, and BLG is bottom five. With LNG over FPX, at least there was a route to victory hyper scaling, but here we've already seen this TES squad get tested versus some lower caliber opponents and survive stretching the game to 50 minutes if need be.
My main concern with the matchup is that TES can close out too quickly and with little resistance from a passive BLG side. A quick win with little push back would kill their fantasy value, at least from a point per dollar perspective.
Top TES Plays:
- Knight - MID
- Karsa - JNG
- 369 - TOP
Summary
- The summer trend is that the LCK is pacing up, while the LPL slows down, Exploit that tonight before the public catches on.
- TES is the only team you’re going to feel great about clicking on tonight but finding the right team to pair them with (HLE, TD, and OMG being my favorites) will make or break your slate.
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