RADIO
"Break on through to the other side" We did it, everyone! Welcome to the brave new world of four-game slates overnight. We got to pick our poison, and now we'll get what we asked for LCK snoozefests, scrambling for starting lineups on twitter, and hopefully less ties at the top.
Another night another upset, but not so fast, said TES coming back from an opening game loss to reverse sweep OMG. Never a doubt in my mind, yeah, right. I think that bit of struggle is good for TES on a day when they didn't have IT. They were able to summon up the energy to fight back and get that win when they easily could have packed it in. On to our first four-game slate and its a doozy with all four games close enough to possibly go all three games.
Today, I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK/LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Wednesday, June 17th, 2020. Make sure you are following me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
LCK Matches
4:00 AM: Afreeca Freecs (-160) vs. Sandbox Gaming
Both of these teams made some coaching changes in the off time, and we'll get a chance to see what changes they can make. Hopefully, they start by ironing out a starting five and never going back. Afreeca added coach Rigby who was previously with Dignitas and Clutch during their run to worlds in 2019.
Sandbox made a splashier move adding Yamato Cannon, an analyst with the LEC broadcast, but was previously the coach of Vitality. He is the first western coach to be brought into the LCK as an import, and I can't wait to see first what he wears for his coaching debut, secondly what he can bring to the team. SBG also added Kabbie the support from Griffin, previously know as Irove. When we last saw SBG, they were fighting for their LCK lives in the promotion tournament.
They looked sluggish in a loss to Dynamics, but were able to recover and stave off relegation by 2-0 and 3-0 scores over Griffin and SeoraBeol respectively. AFS struggled to a disappointing 6th place finish in the spring, and spent time dealing with star ADC Mystic's absence due to family emergency. Yamato Cannon announced via twitter that he wouldn't be able to join the team in time for the first series.
These two teams are so evenly matched in team statistics from the spring its hard to compare them entirely using those. The only significant gap is a ten percent difference in rift herald takes for the side of AFS, but strangely SBG holds a five percent advantage in the first turret rate. All other significant stats are a wash with neither team taking a decided advantage of over 3-5%. Talent-wise, the squads are also very even with AFS being a bit more talented, especially in the top lane with Kiin. Mystic, also should be at an advantage, especially with Ashe Varus and Kaisa rising in priority. I don't know how much of this game I will end up with, as there is just a ton of unknowns here. Both teams carry an extensive roster of players, and there could be tons of swaps.
We won't know the starters until an hour before lock at best, and I'm only guessing as to how these teams will look stylistically. Tread carefully a keep it small stacks and team slot if you do dip your toes in. Afreeca has the higher upside of these two squads with their ability to beat anyone in the league, as evidenced by them taking down T1 in the spring, but I like to look for upsets early in the season. Plus SBG was 2-0 versus AFS in the spring it might have to be dog or pass here for me though I'm leaning Afreeca to win here with their talent gap and SBG being without Yamato.
Top SBG Plays:
- OnFleek - JNG
- Dove - MID
- SBG Team
7:00 AM: Dragon X vs. T1 (-215)
This match is nearly as opposite as you can get on the LCK spectrum, and it should be a doozy. Legends of the game and top-tier teams go head to head on Wednesday. We saw T1 dominate this matchup in the spring split going 3-0 versus DRX with a game score of 7-2, but that doesn't mean that I will count DRX out here. DRX favors the more up-tempo early game style of play, which is dominating in other regions.
T1 did step up the speed of their game in the Mid Season Cup, but did not get the results they were looking for in that tournament. While I believe Cuzz is the better of the two junglers, I think Pyosik is the better early game player. I will take a shot here on the dogs as T1 has been historically a slow-starting team, and I expect DRX to go under-owned against the LCK champions. T1, as usual, will revert to playing defensively and scaling into the late game where they let Teddy carry them over the finish line.
I will similarly be keeping my exposure here small until I can gauge where the LCK wants to take this wild meta that the LPL has ushered in for them. I'm not nearly as worried about playing either side here as both teams are far more steady with their starting rosters. With it being the late game on the LCK side, we won't have a confirmed lineup until after DK locks, and some players might shy away from this match due to the what-if factor.
Cuzz\Elim is the only position that could realistically swap, but I think that starting Elim is a bit too disrespectful to the side of DRX. T1 likely end up winning this series, but with a very reasonable chance to win and the rock bottom pricing on DRX players I like on Wednesday to help me jam my lineup with expensive LPL plays. T1 is 3-0 over DRX this season with a 7-2 game score, and since Deft joined DRX, it's 7-1 series with a 17-5 game score.
Top T1 Plays:
- Teddy - ADC
- Effort - SUP
- Canna - TOP
- T1 Team
Top DRX Plays:
- Pyosik - JNG
- Chovy - MID
- Deft- ADC
- Keria - SUP
- DRX Team
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LPL Matches
5:00 AM: Invictus (-400) vs. Rogue Warriors
I'm so excited to jump all in back on the Invictus hype train - THEY'RE BACK, BABY! Ok, now that I got that out of my system, we can get back to the reality of the situation IG still suck. They struggled big-time with this RW squad in the spring, barely securing a 2-1 victory on a backdoor Abyssal Voyage to the nexus by Puff and SouthWind.
IG is coming off a nice bounceback win over SNG, and will have some positive momentum coming into this set. RW, on the other hand, has picked up right where they left off in the spring being a fast, sloppy team that gives up a lot of fantasy points. They gave up 48 kills in a 0-2 loss to a Jackeyloveless TES team, and I like them to surrender massive points to IG as well.
The Invictus win over SNG was not precisely a statement type of victory, and it was more of a survival thanks to Rookie and SNG trying to give the game away. With the way IG has been playing, it wouldn't be wise to count the side of RW out. IG is weak with their vision control and sloppy around objectives; they will give the side of RW chances to win. Whoever does come out on top in this one will be the highest-scoring team on the day, and I have both teams going over 20 kills in a win. I do like IG to end up on the winning side because of their star power, especially the carries Rookie and Puff.
Top IG Plays:
- Rookie - MID
- Puff - ADC
- SouthWind - SUP
- Ning - JNG
Top RW Plays:
- Zwuji - ADC
- Ley - SUP
- Youdang - JNG (medium sub risk)
- Holder - TOP (very risky)
7:00 AM: Edward Gaming (-260) vs. Suning Gaming
These are two teams I view as very similar, even mirror images of each other. Both sides want to play around their ADCs; in spring, Huanfeng and Hope were number one and two in kill share as well as number one and four in the percentage of gold economy consumed. I think EDG is the better team overall, and they showed that coming in fifth in the league in the spring split despite their various hardships.
In spring, SNG had a better baron percentage than EDG, but EDG bested SNG in drake percentage. SNG output more damage, but EDG generated more gold. Sng with SofM has better vision stats by a fair margin. SNG did 2-0 EDG in the spring, and if you look back, you'll see that since 2018 SofM's teams are 5-2 in series versus EDG with a 10-6 game score. I forgot this little tidbit in the spring and promised myself I wouldn't come summer. Plus, you know I'm always looking to glorify Snake Esports and promote their ex-players and coaches, if not their current team.
This matchup is close, and I think you can play both sides. It projects as the second-best match of the day from a kills perspective with EDG looking north of 19 in a win and SNG over 17. SNG is 2-1 with wins over LNG, WE, and a good looking loss to JDG. EDG is currently 1-1 with a win over OMG where the struggled a bit in the second game and a loss to WE.
The WE series was one where EDG had a 2-0 in the bag then fell apart after giving up game two. I think EDG is the better team, but I also think I've talked myself into the side of SNG. Their current form is slightly better, and given the history on the side of SofM, I'm going to stick with that SNG call. This Graves/Lee Sin/Nidalee/Kindred jungle meta has been great for SofM, and that's another buff to the side of SNG.
Top SNG Plays:
- Haunfeng - ADC
- Swordart - SUP
- SofM - Jungle
Top EDG Plays:
- Hope - ADC
- Meiko - SUP
- JieJie - JNG (Now starring over JunJia)
Summary
- The first four-game slate, and all I want to do is shove all-in on LPL teams. Classic me. With the way the kill projections are shaping up, those should be the far better options. Any LCK plays for me are likely to be short stacks and Team slots.
- I'm willing to shoot my shot on any of the underdogs to try to fit more IG, except in lineups where I'm taking RW. I will likely full-stack both sides of that match in a majority of my lineups.
- AFS and T1 are likely better teams in the long run than their opponents, but early in the season, we don't know what these teams have ready for us. We've already seen some massive upsets in the LPL, and LEC with top teams dropping like flies.
- SNG might be my favorite underdog thanks to the similar way that they and EDG play, and SofM's documented history against EDG.
- I talk a lot and try to give you a solid base to look at when you start researching these slates. I like to explore the avenue for each team to win these series and let you make your conclusions.
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