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Welcome back RotoBallers to my League of Legends DFS column! We will continue to extend our analysis for LoL DFS across different leagues and sites, bringing you the insight you need to succeed. I am super excited that we LoL back in our lives and I'm determined to offer the best free breakdowns that you'll find anywhere in the industry!
The second day of the Mid Season Cup has arrived. Tonight the teams we know and love from the LPL and LCK duking it out for some cash and prestige during this replacement tournament. FanDuel will be grouping all three-game sets together with teams accruing points across the entire day. DraftKings will be following the pattern of past international events and running three separate two-game slates. The second night is here, and there are some massive contests posted in the FanDuel and DraftKings lobbies, including the 15-dollar Mid Season Special that pays 50k to first place!
Today, I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK\LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Friday, May 29th, 2020. Make sure you are following me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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3:00 AM: JDG (-180) vs. GEN G (+130)
I joked around a bit in premium slack yesterday that I only picked T1 to win all three games to prove I'm not a biased LPL fanboi. Well, now that we're done with that, we return to our regularly scheduled content. I don't favor either of the LCK teams today.
If you asked me pre-tournament, I'd even say I liked DWG a bit more than Gen G or DRX. Both of them feast on the bottom tier of this region, which is top-heavy. I like JDG here; Gen G looked weak in the finals. They fired their head coach Edgar who had been with the team since 2013, his replacement Odin has been with the team since 2016. That's not a lot of upheaval, but it is still worth noting.
Along with that, Gen G lost one series and five total games pre-corona, compared with 11 games and four series after. That would be a 22 game sample size for LAN play and a 25 game sample for online, and with this tournament playing remotely, I believe that puts Gen G at a disadvantage.
JDG meanwhile are championship material online and in person. Lets not also forget that Clid played on JDG in the LPL during the 2018 season. This information is going to give the side of JDG an additional leg up. The second match will be the fantasy gold mine as neither of these teams will are likely to crack 16 kills in a win.
Top JDG Plays:
- Kanavi - JNG ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
- LvMao - SUP ($5,600 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
- JDG TEAM SLOT ($5,200 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
4:00 AM: DRX (Even) vs. IG (-135)
Now it's going to get real deep. Invictus Gaming is terrible, and you couldn't conclude anything less by watching them in the LPL playoffs. Even in the regular season, they drop games to terrible teams and got drilled by JDG and Estar. They are the LPL version of wait for it... DRX.
Griffin is the only team (formerly) in the LCK that didn't take a game off DRX this spring. This game should play out exactly like the DWG vs. DRX series at the end of the split. DRX is a linear team that only wins one way they get ahead early and snowball. They are very good at it, but they are set up for success in the LCK because they are a 30-minute team in a 40-minute league. They have relied on immense talent outplays to save them way too many times this year.
This match also reminds me of the IG and Griffin series from World's last season. IG won that 3-1, and I look for them to win here again. I think both of these teams are a step down from those in that matchup, but the similarities remain. DRX has the same coach and mid-laner as that griffin squad. IG has downgraded bot slightly but retains a large advantage top. Ning might be fighting for his job here, Leyan has left IG to join VG, but if Ning underperforms he could be on the way out.
I think this is an explosive matchup, and both teams will be looking to throw the game away multiple times before the end. If all of that doesn't sound precisely like IG, then I don't know what does. In reality, this game could go either way, and I will likely play it as such. A game stack could also be in order as I do expect both teams to trade the lead back and forth several times.
Top IG Plays:
- theshy - TOP ($6,400 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
- Rookie - MID ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
- Puff - ADC ($7,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
Top DRX Plays:
- Pyosik - JNG ($6,400 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
- Deft - ADC ($7,200 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel)
- Keria - SUP ($5,200 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel)
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5:00 AM: DRX (+110) vs. GEN G (-155)
The LCK showdown on this slate will be a close-run affair featuring two teams with contrasting styles. Or so you would think, for all of DRX early game focus, they are statistically not any better than Gen G early.
A lot of this comes from Clid, who is an excellent early game jungler. Yesterday morning all the teams showed some nervous qualities, whether it was FPX being uncharacteristically passive or T1 being hasty. That goes to show how much stock the organizations are putting into this tournament.
I like the Gen G side of this matchup due to their ability to win the game in multiple ways. They can match DRX early or take them late. Gen G has better vision numbers, and Baron stats are also the more veteran and tested team.
Ruler is the only holdover from the 2017 World's Championship Squad, but it's always nice to know you have a World Finals MVP in your back pocket. Even tho I like Gen G here, this will be an excellent spot to hedge because if DRX wins, it will likely be in runaway fashion.
Top GEN G Plays:
- Ruler - ADC ($7,400 DK $9,800 FD)
- Bdd- MID ($7,200 DK, $9,000 FD)
- Clid - JNG ($6,600 DK, $8,400 FD)
Top DRX Plays:
- Deft - ADC ($7,000 DK $9,400 FD)
- Keria - SUP ($7,600 DK, $7,400 FD)
- Pyosik - JNG ($6,400 DK, $8,100 FD)
6:00 AM: JDG (-175) vs. IG (+125)
This one seems too easy since we just saw JDG lay a smackdown on IG near the end of the LPL regular split. I can't argue with it too much either because IG's main advantage over any opponent is in their solo lanes, but Zoom has handled theshy very well in the past.
Rookie's influence on the game will likely be limited by what Ning allows him to do, or what Kanavi doesn't allow him to do. Unless Ning has some magic left in his old red shoes, I think the new kid on the block can disrupt Rookie mid and set theshy behind top-lane. LvMao was an animal in the finals, and all split, he will be another difference maker for JDG here.
Taking a GPP shot on Invictus will be similar to having had DWG over T1 on yesterday's slate 2. I didn't think it would work, but the dreaded best of one can claim any team. Invictus will again make this the better of the two matchups with their hectic gameplay.
Top JDG Plays:
- Kanavi - JNG ($7,000 DK $8,200 FD)
- Zoom - TOP ($6,400 DK, $8,100 FD)
- LvMao- SUP ($5,800 DK, $7,700 FD)
7:00 AM: IG (Even) vs. GEN G (-135)
Okay, so I may have been a bit overzealous in leading up to the JDG vs. Gen G match up. Having just finished watching TES take down T1 with some good old fashioned LPL brawling, I may have trashed the LCK teams a bit too much.
It's time to get back to reality here and face the fact that IG is just today's DWG. They can win when their top hard carry for them or if other teams set them up to win. Rookie and Bdd will be an excellent matchup, and so will the bot side with Ruler vs. Puff.
It will likely come down to is theshy so much better than Rascal than Clid is better than Ning. I don't think IG will be able to win lane win games like they would like to. I'll lean on the safer smarter side here and take Gen G to win. IG are long shot GPP plays only, as much as that hurts to say. Due to IG's playstyle, this should be the better matchup of the two on the final DK slate of the day.
Top Gen G Plays:
- Clid - JNG ($6,600 DK, $8,400 FD)
- Ruler - ADC ($7,400 DK $9,800 FD)
- Bdd- MID ($7,200 DK, $9,000 FD)
8:00 AM: DRX (+130) vs. JDG (-180)
So if I'm keeping track here, I have Gen G looking like they get through the group with a 2-1 record. JDG will be 2-0 by this point, and DRX could be winless. In that scenario, I won't hesitate to ride the narrative and take a shot on a prideful team gutting out a win over a team with nothing to gain. In a straight-up fight, I like JDG here.
It feels similar to the JDG IG match from an hour or so ago. Chovy will have the upper hand versus Yagao, but in this one, it will be up to Zoom to create an advantage over Doran. Kanavi versus Clid will be a fireworks type of matchup and the bot lane with Deft and Loken scarcely less so.
In the end, I like the safer smarter squad again in the side of JDG, much like Gen G. I think they have more paths to victory here, but I have talked myself into taking some shots on DRX for GPPs no matter the standings.
Top JDG Plays:
- Kanavi - JNG ($7,000 DK $8,200 FD)
- Zoom - TOP ($6,400 DK, $8,100 FD)
- LvMao- SUP ($5,800 DK, $7,700 FD)
Top DRX Plays:
- Chovy - MID ($6,600 DK $9,400 FD)
- Keria - SUP ($5,000 DK, $7,400 FD)
- Pyosik - JNG ($6,200 DK, $8,100 FD)
Summary
- Another batch of two-game slates on DK, yesterday we were again reminded that anything could and will happen in a best of one scenario.
- Anytime IG plays, I think that game might be game stackable they averaged 22.5 deaths in their losses, and 20 kills in their wins. They will be fantasy gasoline for your lineups, but I likely would have said the same RE: DWG yesterday.
- On FD with their all-day slate, I like the pricing on JDG, who could go 3-0 while being generally the second-highest priced team. Gen G team slot is too cheap over there, and Kanavi is an attractive captain option.
- The most significant risk for substitution will be the Gen G supports Life/Kellin; if we get confirmation on who is starting, we still have to worry about them swapping for the later slates on DK. Either will be risky on FD as they could drop game one to JDG and get swapped for the other two slates. I have no confidence in trying to predict this spot either. Stay tuned on Twitter.
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