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Welcome back RotoBallers to my League of Legends DFS column! We will continue to extend our analysis for LoL DFS across different leagues and sites, bringing you the insight you need to succeed. I am super excited that we LoL back in our lives and I'm determined to offer the best free breakdowns that you'll find anywhere in the industry!
The opening day of the Mid Season Cup is finally here, and it's been a long wait. Last night's PCS-VCS showdown was a bit of a mess with everyone playing with their starting lineups and plenty of overlay in the DK lobbies. Tonight the teams we know and love from the LPL and LCK duking it out for some cash and prestige during this replacement tournament. FanDuel will be grouping all three-game sets together with teams accruing points across the entire day. DraftKings will be following the pattern of past international events and running three separate two-game slates. The opening night is finally here, and there are some massive contests posted in the FanDuel and DraftKings lobbies, including the 15-dollar Mid Season Special that pays 50k to first place!
Today, I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK\LPL slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Thursday, May 28th, 2020. Make sure you are following me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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3:00 AM: T1 (-150) vs. FPX (+110)
All of these matches are going to be barn burners, with the top four from each league being the only teams invited to the tournament. This one is close to the best of the best on this side of the bracket. Starting lineups haven't been released yet, but I expect to see FPX use Khan after his excellent showing versus IG in the 3rd place game. That and as we long-time league fans recall, he played for T1 last season before coming to the LPL.
Overall I like T1 in this match due to a couple of factors. They are a more flexible team, which gives them more outs based one where things go in-game, especially when it comes to stalling things out and scaling into the late game. I also think the might be a slightly more talented roster than FPX.
Canna has played very well in the top lane, and that's an area that's given FPX some trouble as they've tried to integrate Khan. Tian nor Doinb haven't been to the world-beating level they were at during the close of last season, and they might need to be to get one over on Faker and Cuzz. Teddy is an absolute stud, but Effort has been pretty meh. I like T1 to win with their safety and patience here, but this is a spot to hedge for sure.
Best of ones lend themselves to upsets, and as LEC and LCS have taught us well. FPX is the reigning World Champions, and counting them out entirely is foolish at best. You never know what Doinb will bring to the table in the mid lane, and his champion pool, coupled with his shot-calling, could give T1 a look they haven't seen domestically.
Top T1 Plays:
- Teddy - ADC ($7,600 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel)
- Canna - TOP ($6,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
- T1 TEAM SLOT ($5,200 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
- Cuzz - JNG ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
Top FPX Plays:
- Tian- JNG ($6,400 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
- Doinb - MID ($7,200 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
- Crisp - SUP ($5,200 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)
- Lwx - ADC ($7,400 Draftkings, $9,400 FanDuel)
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4:00 AM: DWG (+165) vs. TES (-230)
The biggest favorite during the first set of games LPL runners up TES face-off with the fourth-place squad from the LCK in DWG in a game I think everyone expects to play out just like the odds say. That includes me, but I will say that DWG will be the lowest owned team during the first set of games by a wide margin.
They also have a strong topside matchup into TES's weakest positions in top and jungle. So they will make a fun little GPP play on the opening slate. With that little disclaimer out of the way, I can get back to telling you how Showmaker hasn't been at his level of play from last year, while Knight continues to look like the best player on the planet.
TES is a team I've called a summer team due to my insistence that they shouldn't be this good already with Jackey, only joining a few weeks before playoffs. They proved me wrong with a solid run to the finals, nearly taking the title from JDG. Jackey and whoever starts with him on the bot side will have a significant advantage over Ghost and Beryl.
Even though the top half of the map is the weakest area for TES, it is by no means weak, and if sticking with the LPL side here, I also like 369. Playing defense versus Nuguri is a lot like playing defense versus theshy, which we saw 369, and TES does very effectively. Camping top lane to set the star enemy laners behinds has proved to be an effective strategy throughout the season. Jackey's aggressive playstyle and shot-calling have supercharged this team already, and I like them to win this matchup.
This match should be the more fantasy-friendly one for the opening slate on DK, and I'll be heavier on plays from this side in my lineups on Thursday.
Top TES Plays:
- Knight - MID ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
- Jackeylove - ADC ($7,800 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel)
- Yuyanjia - SUP ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)
- 369 - TOP ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
5:00 AM: T1 (-275) vs. DWG (+190)
T1 lost their last match against DWG, but that was when they were messing around with Elim, their rookie jungler. I do not expect them to do either of those things here, mess around, nor lose. The same applies to DWG being the lowest owned and in a one-game setting worth a long shot here for GPP. T1 is the play for me as I see them taking this one, especially if FPX upends them during the first set of games.
That will make this a must-win for the LCK spring champions. Much like TES in the last set, I think that T1 holds advantages across the map, especially in the bot lane. Teddy and Effort (mostly Teddy) should be able to lap Ghost and Beryl. The only problem here is that the LPL showdown on the other side of the DK slate will be the superior fantasy target.
Top T1 Plays:
- Canna - TOP ($6,400 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
- T1 TEAM SLOT ($5,400 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
- Cuzz - JNG ($6,800 DraftKings, $8,400 FanDuel)
- Faker - MID ($7,400 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)
6:00 AM: FPX (-110) vs. TES (-125)
While these two powerhouse LPL squads didn't face off in the playoffs, they did meet in the final match of the regular season. TES played incredibly and sent the defending champions packing 2-0. They'll be looking to repeat that performance here. The LPL side of the second set will be the better fantasy matchup here, and I'm likely to hedge this one on DK. The betting line is shifting a bit more to TES's side, but I like taking the dog here.
With both clubs in the LPL home arena in Shanghai, this match should contest via LAN instead of remotely. I believe this gives a little boost to the side of FPX since they are such a coordinated team. That tiny edge may be all they need to squeak by TES.
I also think that Tian holds the advantage over Karsa in the matchup with his consistency this split compared to Karsa's up and down performances. If TES wins, I think we all know how that happens by now. Knight can match Doinb's pressure across the map by shadowing his roams, or winning lane too hard to counter and keeping him at home.
Top FPX Plays:
- Tian - JNG ($6,400 DraftKings $8,900 FanDuel)
- Doinb - MID ($7,200 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)
- Crisp - SUP ($5,200 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
- Lwx - ADC ($7,400 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel)
TES Plays:
- Knight - MID ($7,600 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
- Jackeylove - ADC ($7,800 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel)
- 369 - TOP ($6,600 DraftKings, $8,100 FanDuel)
7:00 AM: FPX (-205) vs. DWG (+150)
DWG has a hard row to hoe in this Mid Season Cup, facing the champion of their league, and the second and third place squads from the LPL. I gave them a shot vs. TES, I didn't like them much versus T1, and I don't want them much here either.
Again one-game slate, etc., but since last years world's performance, DWG has fallen off. FPX has, too, but only from the level of World Champion to World Title Contender. Much like the EU Masters slates, I will be watching the later slates with regards to the odds and how I think other players will react to the previous matches.
I may be more likely to pull the trigger on a DWG lineup if FPX is 2-0 at this point, knowing that I'd get far more leverage than if they struggle. This game should be the slightly better fantasy matchup for the third slate on DK.
Top FPX Plays:
- Tian - JNG ($7,000 DraftKings $8,900 FanDuel)
- Doinb - MID ($7,400 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel)
- Crisp - SUP ($6,000 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel)
- Lwx - ADC ($7,600 DraftKings, $9,400 FanDuel)
8:00 AM: T1 (-140) vs. TES (Even)
TES is drawing closer in odds already, and that again will be something I'll be watching closely up until lock. That and the condition of the teams and the standings are coming into this one. It is a tight matchup between two legit world title contenders, and I can't wait.
Knight versus Faker and Jackey versus Teddy - all that hype and excitement for this matchup, and it will come down to the junglers and supports. The last time Jackeylove faced Teddy, it was the Infamous 16 minute stomp at last year's MSI where T1 went all-in on scaling with a Sona Taric comp, and IG answered with Jackeyloves Draven.
I doubt T1 tries that type of limit test again. The "security" of scaling exists if the team you're playing lacks the capabilities to run you off the rift before your late-game tools come online. T1 will play a more standard game of league of legends here and will be more than happy to farm it out if TES let them.
The final match will be another spot to split exposure on DK, but I'll pick T1 here to win. I think they are a better version of last year's World's Quarterfinalist squad and will be looking to show it. Even during the playoff run for TES, Karsa was spotty, hopefully I'm wrong because I pegged TES for a long run into the fall when they signed him.
Top T1 Plays:
- Cuzz - JNG ($6,600 DK $8,900 FD)
- Faker - MID ($7,000 DK, $9,200 FD)
- T1 Team -($5,000 DK, $7,800 FD)
Summary
- On FD with the three-game setup, I will have a hard time steering clear of FPX as they are priced barely above DWG and could easily end the day 3-0. Khan, especially if they start him(as I expect they will), would be a great GPP piece cheap and low owned, but risky.
- I picked T1 to go 3-0 on the day, and as an LPL fan, I'm a bit ashamed of that. They are the most expensive squad on FD so pick those spots carefully I love their team slot due to their style of play.
- I listed QuiQui above whenever I mentioned TES support being a good play. I'm guessing it will be him, and I'm also guessing that we'll know pre lock. If we do and it's not, yuyanjia becomes a great value. (Editor’s note - Yuyanjia is confirmed as the starter)
- I've listed several games as spots to hedge and play both sides. Taking the favorite in cash games, and the underdog in GPPs is the play on those.
- After yesterday I'm excited to have some more settled league action, but the best of one format makes these only slightly less so. As every analyst says(way too damn much), these games will be balanced on a knife's edge.
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