RADIO
I may not think much of these all-day slates, but seven days without league makes one weak. So I'll take any rift-related action I can get. We might get a few more of this type of slate with the LCK regional gauntlet starting on the 7th, or we'll just have to wait on the return of the European Masters on 9/9.
Either way, the Rotoballer Esports Staff, myself included, will be here for you all through playoffs and on into the World Championships at the end of September. While the rest of the sports world is resuming, we will continue to provide you with top-tier League of Legends analysis.
Let's hop back in the saddle again as I'll be providing my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK, LEC, and LCS slate on DraftKings and FanDuel locking at 4:00 AM on Saturday, September 5th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
LCK Finals Match
4:00 AM: Damwon Gaming (-385) vs. DRX
The LCK playoffs' finals will start our Saturday all day slate off right with a high-paced showdown. The way the Korean teams qualify for the World Championships is worth discussing first. The team that wins the summer playoffs, i.e., this match, auto qualifies as the first seed from Korea. The second seed from Korea is determined by championship points accrued from standings in both spring and summer. The third seed from LCK will be the winner of the upcoming regional qualifier tournament, which comprises the remaining top teams 3-6 in terms of championship points. So on the DRX side, if they win, they will be the number one seed with Gen G qualifying as the second seed, and DWG as the third-place team in champ points will be the top seed in the regional qualifier. If DWG wins, they will be the LCK's top seed with DRX going through as the two seed, and Gen G will fall to the third seed and therefore sit atop the regionals gauntlet. So outside of this being the title match to determine the LCK champion, there's still worlds qualifying hanging in the balance as if the teams needed more motivation.
Looking at this year's DWG vs. DRX series to date, it seems a bit lopsided with DRX winning 4-1 in the series, including their meeting in the spring playoffs. The game score between the two is much closer at 9-6 for the side of DRX, with DRX sweeping the opener in spring, but DWG taking the final summer meeting 2-0. DWG has been the team to beat in the LCK all summer long, losing only two series, one each to DRX and Gen G with a fantastic game score of 34-5. They were the most dominant team in any Main Event region, and as good as DRX have been, they have their work cut out for them here.
DWG's statistical dominance of the LCK this split is so apparent that they were the superior team even in their loss to DRX 1-2, at least statistically. DWG has been dominant early with significant leads in all the primary early game stats. Gold differential at 15, rift herald percentage, first blood rate, first turret rate, and first three turret rates are all in DWG favor.
DRX has better laning stats and better vision numbers, but DWG answers better dragon and baron numbers. In that first match, we saw DWG lose game one off of a bad back door call. They then classically stomped game two, and then DRX won game three with a close team fight around baron. In summer, the second series featured a pair of DWG stomps and a pair of weird champ drafts from DRX.
DWG will have the advantage of side selection in this match as the higher finisher in the summer split. Much like TES in their finals versus JDG (until inexplicably they chose red on their final game), they could win this match out on that advantage alone. DWG is 19-0 on the blue side in summer with DRX sitting at 13-8 on the red side. Further, the blue side has an overall win percentage of 57% across the regular summer split in the LCK and a 64% win rate in the playoffs. I also feel like DRX were lucky to advance past Gen G recovering from an early deficit due to a three-hour pause resulting from server issues. Without that pause, I feel we would see Gen G in this series and not DRX.
All signs point to a DWG win in the finals. Even the kill upside is there as DRX gives over nearly 18 deaths in their losses. DRX did beat DWG in the spring playoffs 3-2, and that was contested online the same as this final will be. DWG can suffer from that a bit as they are a team that likes to take more risks relying on their ability to outplay almost any situation while DRX is a bit more tactical. I like DWG to smash here even with the online caveat, but with the prices on DRX, only a few pieces would be necessary to get anything else you want from the rest of the slate. DRX doesn't quite have the same upside with DWG, only giving up just over 14 deaths in their losses. DRX will be low owned, maybe even the lowest owned of any team on the slate.
Top DWG Plays
- Showmaker - MID
- Canyon - JNG
- Beryl - SUP
- Nuguri - TOP
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LEC Lower Bracket Semifinals Match
5:00 AM: G2 Esports (-400) vs. Rogue
The two western matches on the DraftKings slate are the only matches on the FanDuel slate, and they are neither of them the action-packed, star-studded affair that the LCK final will be. That is not only because they are only semi-finals, but also due to my bias towards the eastern leagues. To say it has been a problematic split for G2 would be an understatement. Much to do was made of the S04 miracle run, but G2 had to put together a solid run of form to qualify for playoffs themselves. They started the split at 5-7 then won their final four regular-season matches to finish as the third seed. Those four wins, coupled with a 3-1 victory over the Mad Lions in the first round of the playoffs, had you thinking G2 IS BACK BABY!
A clumsy series versus FNC featuring a pair of questionable calls to try to end games two and five has again left G2 with more questions than answers. Much is made of the rivalry between the two, but G2 has owned FNC since acquiring Caps. They were up 15-6 in games, including a 3-0 in the spring finals. Rogue themselves are left wondering where they stack up after winning the regular split, then having their disappointing playoff series with FNC end in a 0-3 loss. Rogue rebounded nicely with a sweep of the Mad Lions to find themselves here in the semis facing a G2 side that they have yet to beat this year. Yes, as good as Rogue has been (regular split winners) and as bad as G2 have been, they always find a way to overcome Rogue.
Since week six, when we saw G2 right the ship, we have seen their stats come right as well, and I feel that's a more true gauge of what this team is. Coincidentally that was the week that these two teams last met, with G2 coming up with a comical win even though they were down 12-18 in kills. In that period, G2 have stepped up their early game pressure and map movements. They lead Rogue in first turret rate, rift herald percentage, drake percentage, baron percentage, and vision score with Rogue holding the first blood rate, and gold differential at 15. That is the type of play G2 needs to bring to this series. Rogue is a good squad, but they are not unlike Origin from the last few years. Their solid, steady approach to league of legends nets them good stats and easy wins over worse teams, but their inability to adapt to some of G2's brute force plays hinders them in the matchup.
Even though G2 have looked shaky, they have been able to drag teams to their level, and these messy scrappy type of games are not where Rogue excels. Looking at the stats breakdown for just the playoffs, you can see G2 has a better economy and are a more proactive team. If G2 pushes too far, they can give tremendous Rogue upside as they give up nearly 20 deaths in their losses. Rogue with their more controlled style, will limit G2's upside the best way they know-how, giving up only 16 deaths in their losses. 22, 20, 16, and 12, the number of kills in the four G2 wins over Rogue this year. So even with G2 averaging over 20 kills in their wins, Rogue will limit them. Long way around to saying G2 win this series probably to the tune of 3-1, but again I love the upside and ownership for this Rogue team.
Top G2 Plays:
- Caps - MID
- Jankos - JNG
- Perkz - ADC
- Mikyx - SUP
Top Rogue Plays: Gpp Special
- Larssen - MID
- Inspired - JNG
- Hans Sama - ADC
- Finn - TOP
LCS Lower Bracket Semifinals Match
4:00 PM: Team Liquid (-195) vs. Team Solo Mid
The LCS matchup brings up the rear, in both timeslot and excitement. This match is the closest of the three on the DraftKings slate, and I expect the ownership to follow along those lines. These should be the third and fourth highest-owned teams as people will be more likely to split this match if multi-entering. Neither team brings tremendous upside due to the slower pace of play, but there may be some interesting pieces here for our lineups on Saturday. Both of these teams already qualified for worlds for NA, and they, along with Flyquest, are fighting for seeding. TL is unbeaten versus TSM this year, both pre and post-Doublelift. TL though is coming off a worrying series loss to Flyquest and will be looking to pick up this win to make it to the finals to get their revenge on that Flyquest squad. TSM is fresh off a win over their other main rival in C9, knocking them from world's contention. One constant on the TL side in all four of their wins this year has been jungle diff, Broxah has been typically excellent, and his ability to smite steal objectives from Spica was the difference in the last match these two teams played.
Throughout the season, TL has been the slightly better team early mainly through strong laning phases as TSM has a higher first blood percentage and a higher rate of downing the first three turrets, while the teams are equal on heralds and first turrets. That laning phases have given them the gold differential advantage at fifteen and first drake while TSM holds the overall edge in dragon percentage. TL enjoys the advantage late, with a much better baron setup and higher vision scores. That makes sense looking at the rosters with former world champions in the top lane and support positions, a world finalist in the jungle, and a quarterfinalist in the mid lane for the TL side. TSM does not have that depth of experience on their side with only Bjergsen, Biofrost, and Doublelift having previous world's experience.
I think that the jungle and support difference here will make it a close TL victory; Broxah and CoreJJ is just a much better and battle-tested duo than the side of Spica and Biofrost. Broxah has played a narrow champion pool this summer but has been spamming Nidalee and Lillia in solo q. Even if he doesn't bring these picks to the stage, I feel he will have enough experience to counter anything Spica may be looking to do. It was Spica's success on Nidalee that was key in the upset of C9. This one should be a close match, but with the superior jungler and objective control when the pressure is on, I'll take TL to win here 3-2. I have joked all split that LCS is shorthand for Literal Crap Shoot, and we did just see TSM upend C9. If they pull that again as the underdog, a few pieces from that side can give you some tasty bits of the other matches; I expect this one to be close in ownership and the rift.
Top TL Plays:
- Broxah - JNG
- Tactical - ADC
- CoreJJ - SUP
- Jensen - MID
Top TSM Plays:
- Bjergsen - MID
- Spica - JNG
- Doublelift - ADC
- Broken Blade - TOP
Summary
- TLDR - I like all the favorites here, and that scares me. So in order of confidence for me, it's DWG, TL, G2. G2 has a much higher ceiling than Rogue, but they have been very inconsistent with this split, and I have some questions about their motivation. I think they have eyes only on the world title, and that could give Rogue the opening they need.
- That would make Rogue my top GPP play, but what are G2 besides Caps? A bunch of inters fighting over scraps, showing that when things break down, they give up nearly 20 deaths in their losses. DRX has a similar upside and ownership, but I like their chances less. I think they were lucky to advance to the final and will need to hard focus bot lane to beat DWG.
- Neither team in the LCS semis has the upside; even if TSM wins, I'd only look for small stacks with TL giving up 11.85 deaths in their losses. The favs are hardly any better, averaging 14 kills in wins with TSM giving up 15 deaths... zzzzzzzz.
- Damwon will be my top stack in every lineup I build, and some of these DWG/TL lineups I've been making throughout the week look good to me. Two pieces of TSM get you some spicy 3-way action with them, DWG and G2.
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