RADIO
The final week of the LCK is upon us, and some of these teams have to join their brothers in the other major leagues and get themselves into playoffs mode right now.
We've got a top of the table clash today as #2 meets #4 and #5 faces #6 with serious playoff implications. Let's get after it and see if we can win all the money on this slate!
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Thursday, August 20th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: T1 vs. Damwon Gaming (-210)
Damwon is one of the few teams in league with a winning record versus SKT over the last two years. Other top teams DRX and Gen G aren't even close! DRX sits 2-8 in series with a 3-18 game score while Gen G is 1-8 with 17-5 game scores. Over the same period, DWG is 5-3 series with a 12-9 game score, and that's not including their win at MSC this year.
DWG also need this win badly to reclaim their top spot in the league. DRX has played one more series than has DWG and is therefore ahead in series score. If both teams win out, or at least finish with the same series score, DWG would claim the top spot via the game differential tie break. Again the LCK gauntlet style makes every bye that much more critical for these teams. T1 also has a chance to improve their lot, but it depends on Gen G losing to AFS. Even the move from fourth to third would be monumental as the fourth versus fifth playoff round is more like a tiebreaker as it retains the best of three format like the regular season instead of ramping up to a best of five like the rest of playoffs.
So you can see both teams will be very motivated to come out looking to win in this one. DWG are rightfully the favorites here given their history of success over T1 and their impeccable performance this split. One of the biggest things DWG has done to impress is to immediately take the game into deep waters with a potent combo of dominant laners and early game proactivity. They lead the league in early game rating from Oracle's Elixir, and you can see from their 3k gold differential at 15 minutes, 88% first turret rate, 76% rift herald takes, and rediculous 97% first three turret rate they mean business. Two things in favor of T1 curiously are that in their first meeting in summer, it was T1 that was ahead after 15 minutes, and since moving to Clozer in the mid lane, their stats are much closer to those of DWG in the beginning phase of the game. DWG went from a 20-25% lead in all categories to a mere 5-10% lead when breaking it down since the addition of Clozer at mid. Still a sizeable lead, but when you consider how much better DWG has been than the rest of the league, T1 has been able to lessen that gap significantly.
More good news for T1 they will have blue/side selection in this match, T1 only has three losses on blue this split, and all of DWG game losses have come on the Red side. Enough is coming through on the side of T1 for me to take them as the upset special on Thursday. DWG is the fav for a reason, and they have had a phenomenal split plus a winning history against T1. We should be getting a massive ownership discount on T1 here, though, as DWG is a fan fav as well. I'm not always the best at projecting ownership, but I'm sure we'll see T1 be the lowest of any team on this slate, or at very least, they will see half the ownership of DWG. For me, that's enough to pull the trigger DWG is the obvious answer in cash and SE, but for GPPs, I'll be rolling the side of T1. Even if they come back with Faker in this spot, I'll still try to capitalize on the GPP upside. Kill wise, this set projects to be the slower-paced matchup of the two today, and so whichever side you end up on look for smaller stacks and team slots.
Top T1 Plays:
- Teddy - ADC
- Canna - TOP
- Cuzzz - JNG
- T1 Team Slot
Top DWG Plays:
- Canyon - JNG
- Showmaker - MID
- Nuguri - TOP
- DWG Team Slot
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7:00 AM: Afreeca (-180) vs. KT Rolster
Afreeca intends to keep their gatekeeper of the LCK status intact, as holding on to the final playoff spot depends on it. They might not be able to move into the top four, which likely means an unceremonious first-round exit. Still making it to the dance is better than being a wallflower, and KT is too still alive for that final spot. They would genuinely need a miraculous week to overtake AFS for the right to lose in the first round, but it is possible. Both teams should come out firing, looking to pick up an important win with neither willing to concede their possible playoff position without a fight. AFS ran KT off the rift with a combined 25-7 kill score sweep in week three of LCK summer. Things were much closer in the spring, where KT grabbed a couple of 2-1 wins and swept AFS en route to claiming the fourth seed. AFS has looked like the clear next best behind the top four, but we'll see what KT can do.
This match marks the debut of patch 10.16 in the LCK, which brings some good and bad news for the teams. Good news for AFS is a lot of buffs for strong top lane champs for Kiin- Akali, Fiora, Jax, Hecarim, Lucian, and even Neeko have caught buffs giving top lane win conditions through split pushing or team fighting quite the boost. The bot lane receives some bad news in nerfs to Mystic's Ashe and the supports Bard, Karma, and Nautilus. Ashe is still being picked quite a bit in regions with 10.16 active, but she has seen her win rate drop 11% from 10.15 to 10.16. Those bot nerfs help out KT's Aiming in that he doesn't have to deal with as much damage coming out of Mystic, and we could see Tusin back on Rakan who has gotten himself a buff as well. Though Tusin's bard has taken nerf's and it has been his most successful champ this split.
All in all, I think the patch change slightly favors KT. Since they have committed to Ucal in the mid lane, we have seen more success from KT. They should be able to match AFS early with a lower first blood %, but higher rift herald and first turret rates. KT has a better dragon rate than does AFS during that period as well, while AFS counters with a better baron nashor percentage. KT also has a vision edge over AFS, that they can use to their advantage late. Unfortunately, this match ends up like the AFS/SBG or the KT/GEN G matches have recently. With the team that should win coming up with the win, give me AFS to win out 2-1 over KT. I still like KT and will play some lineups with them if AFS is looking ahead to their showdown with Gen G later in the week. This should be the higher kill match of the two on Thursday, and I'll look here for my big stacks.
Top AFS Plays:
- Spirit - JNG
- Mystic - ADC
- Fly - MID
- Kiin - TOP
Top KT Plays:
- Aiming - ADC
- Tusin - SUP
- Ucal - MID
- Smeb - TOP
Summary
- TLDR - In a pair of 2-1, I'll take T1 and AFS, but unlike the last week of LCK, I think everyone is in play. That makes this a fun gpp slate with reasons that each team can take these matches.
- Nothing is "Sneaky" on a two games slate, and genuine upsets have been few and far between in the LCK this summer. Maybe I'm reaching, but I think the discount on T1 in ownership is too much to ignore.
- For the truly bold double dogs are in play, and if you're playing multiple lineups, you'll want to hedge all around. I tend to stick with 3-5 entries, so I think I'll be looking at going all-in on T1 to get different with a 2-1 ration of AFS to KT.
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