RADIO
Hi everyone, welcome back to the LCK! Tonight we have one match where the outcome isn't predetermined, and it even has playoff implications! Let's GOOOO!
If only we had some warning or consistency from DraftKings as far as how these slates will look in the future. Wednesday, the LCK two-game slate was the "Main" slate with a two day LPL only thrown in as an afterthought. Thursday brought us a two day LCS only playoffs slate, Friday the two-game LCK slate that I wrote up, and an LPL-LCS split slate that became the "Main" slate. Friday afternoon, another two-game LCS playoff slate, and Saturday with this two-game LCK. Sorry, I know I am ranting but I am passionate about LOL DFS and I wish the sites would give us a better heads up as to what slates they are going to offer!
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Saturday, August 15th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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4:00 AM: Team Dynamics vs. Damwon Gaming (-2000)
I often refer to DWG as the IG of the LCK, and they're showing every bit of the good side of that comparison and none of the bad so far this summer. So good that they have a virtual stranglehold on the #1 seed for playoffs. They sit four games up on DRX for that number one seed with two matches remaining after this versus T1 and KT. They need to sweep here and win one more game to take the coveted top seed in LCK's grueling gauntlet playoff format. The winner of the summer split auto qualifies for the world championship main stage. The other two seeds from the LCK (how bad does Riot want that 4th seed from LEC back now LOL) qualify through championship points accrued by standings in both splits and the regional qualifier. DWG will place a high priority on the top seed to take these games very seriously until they have that first seed locked down.
During their final match versus KT, we could see IG or G2 levels of shenanigans come out from DWG until then it will be all ahead full. Now, as far as this match goes, I'll refer to the rule of four in the LCK. Is DWG in the top four? Yes. Is TD in the top four? No. Press calculate, wait a minute, and all signs point to DWG sweep. You don't come here for my funny stories and turning every breakdown into a chance to talk about IG (WOW what a team!). You want the numbers, the stats to back to these plays. So let's touch on that a bit. Damwon is the best early game team in the league (maybe the world) sporting an average gold differential at fifteen minutes of +2900, while TD is sixth in league with -884 diff. The combination of those two plus red side sets DWG up with a 90.4% win probability on gold diff alone. Throw an 88% to 43% first turret rate on top of that, 76% to 49% rift herald take, 62% to 49% dragon, and a nearly unheard of 59.3% to 47.2% jungle percentage that gives you a recipe for domination. The jungle percentage is measure by the amount of jungle creep score accumulated by the team, and no one in any other major region is above 55%. Cloud 9 was before their current struggles, but DWG has been winning games so handily that they spend an almost unfair amount of time on the enemy side of the map. Everything lines up nicely for a tidy 2-0 for the side of DWG.
Top DWG Plays:
- Showmaker - MID
- Canyon - JNG
- Nuguri - TOP
- Beryl - SUP
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7:00 AM: Afreeca (-280) vs. Sandbox Gaming
Sandbox is technically alive for the playoffs still, and their chance at the miracle run starts this morning. SBG needs to 2-0 AFS today and HLE next Friday, and have AFS 0-4 versus Gen G and KT next week. Then they will tie in record, head to head, and game differential leading to a tiebreaker match, which I assume will be a normal BO3. First things first, can they beat AFS to get the ball rolling. They did just stretch Gen G out in a three-game set, and even though they lost, it was a positive movement for them in my book. They pushed the issue through the draft phases forcing Gen G to outplay massively in their wins. So much so I was very concerned about Gen G losing the series after the game three draft. These teams are close in stature, and we saw them split in the spring with AFS coming away with a slight 3-2 game score advantage. AFS did 2-0 SBG in week one of the summer split, but that was before the coaching change took effect.
Since that change statistically, the teams have been very close with AFS being a hair better early and SBG a hair better late. AFS narrowly leads in first blood, dragons, and gold differential at 15 minutes. SBG has the edge in first turret percentage, rift heralds, barons, and in vision. Kiin versus anyone in the top lane is usually a win for AFS, and they count so heavily on him to carry, but he should have his hand full with Summit. The mid-jungle duo will decide this series, and I give the edge there over to SBG. Mystic or Kiin can always pull the late game out of a hat with Akali or Ashe, but I think the advantage in the middle of the map and the draft phase will prove too much as SBG push for their miracle. Give me an SBG sweep because I'm just that excited to have an underdog with a reasonable chance to pull one out for me.
Top SBG Plays:
- Fate - MID
- Onfleek - JNG
- Route - ADC
- Gorilla - SUP
Summary
- TLDR - gimme a pair of 2-0 one for DWG and another for SBG. DWG is set up for a blow out win, but thing may go too smooth for them. TD does not put up a lot of fighting, surrendering only 14.2 deaths in their losses, and DWG average 18.6 kills in their wins, so something has to be given there.
- I weigh the deaths in losses more than the KPW; therefore, I'll say for tournaments, you might want to go heavier on SBG or AFS. That match can be split, and I think going heavy on that side could be the best way to differentiate.
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