RADIO
"No LPL and no LCK make Jason something something."
"Go crazy?"
"DON'T MIND IF I DO!!!"
I always tell my kids that there is a Simpsons quote for literally every occasion, and this classic from Treehouse of Horror 5 fits this situation nicely. Unfortunately, as playoffs set in and the World's Championship draws closer, my excitement for that event is tempered but the impending end of the league of legends season. Well, Ballers, it's been way too long of a wait, but we're going to cover every slate we can as the season winds down from a DFS standpoint.
I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 4:00 AM on Thursday, August 13th, 2020. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
4:00 AM: Sandbox Gaming vs. Gen G (-1200)
It has been over a year, the course of three splits, and four matches since Gen G has dropped so much as a game versus Sandbox. Even with their added Yamato buff, SBG lag behind Gen G in every statistical category minus a slight vision lead. On paper, the individual matchups don't look bad for SBG, outside of Route into Ruler. Ruler is dominant, but Bdd is having a bit of a down split, at least in his competition at the top of the LCK mid lane talent pool. Rascal in the top lane might have the next biggest individual advantage, but it is a team game, and in the LCK, top teams don't punt. Even casting the best possible light on SBG, they are at a 15 to 20 percent disadvantage in those stats I talked about earlier (you remember, all of them).
Seriously though the top four of the league are nearly untouchable, they are a combined 48-12 in series with only two of those 12 losses coming to teams outside of that top four. T1's loss to TD, and DRX's to KT other than that the other ten series losses the LCK's top four have been to themselves. I don't see SBG pulling this one out, but they will be the lowest owned by a wide margin on Thursday. This should be the higher paced of the two matchups and slightly higher owned with Gen G being more of a sure thing.
Top Gen G Plays:
- Ruler - ADC
- Rascal - TOP
- BDD - MID
- Clid - JNG
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7:00 AM: Afreeca vs. T1 (-500)
This latest incarnation of T1 has looked quite spicy without Faker, but since all eight of his games have been against lower-tier LCK competition, I'm not ready to crown Clozer just yet. Afreeca is not a bottom-tier team, and T1 may find it harder going against them than they have against the less talented lower teams. I wouldn't be surprised to see T1 go back to Faker here, much as they did with Ellim in the spring. Playing the youngster for several weeks to build up his stage presence and then bringing the vet back in when the going gets tough. T1 has controlled Afreeca recently going 6-2 in series over the last two years with a 14-6 game score. This year is 2-1 series for SKT and 5-3 game scores, and Mystic's addition makes me have some hope for the side of AFS.
Over the last three weeks since Clozer debuted T1's early game metrics have gotten much better. AFS lead in first blood, first turret, and gold differential at fifteen minutes as they too have stepped on the gas pedal in the last few weeks. T1 leads the race to raze the first three turrets, first drake take, and baron percentage, but AFS does have a slight vision advantage over those three weeks. One of the most significant factors in favor of T1 in this matchup is Canna's emergence in the top lane. In recent years T1 has had a revolving door in the top lane, and it hasn't helped them as it had in the past. As late as the last split, I would have chalked the top lane up as an auto-win for Kiin, but with Canna playing at his current level, I have to give it to him.
If Afreeca is to pull this one out, they will need to continue that first blood lead likely using it in mid-lane to get Fly ahead and trust that Kiin and Mystic can hold their own until the mid-jungle duo can get ahead. T1 often bakes into their drafts, a scaling element, like a Vladimir or Xayah, to give them a late-game security blanket. If AFS focus mid lane hard and try to play an early-mid type of comp, they could pull out the upset. AFS has limited upside in a win with T1's ability to stall out games they are losing as they only average 12.5 deaths in a loss, T1, on the other hand, could be the sneaky upside spot of the slate facing AFS who average nearly 18 deaths in their losses. I'm going to lean slightly to T1 here, giving them a 2-1 win, but I will probably play a 60/40 split in lineups for Thursday AM.
Top T1 Plays:
- Teddy - ADC
- Effort - SUP
- Canna - TOP
- Cuzz - JNG
Top AFS Plays:
- Fly - MID
- Spirit - JNG
- Mystic - ADC
- AFS Team
Summary
- TLDR - T1 and Gen G win. It's nearly a foregone conclusion, and ownership will inevitably reflect that. Both favorites will be heavily owned, and the only reasonable dog will likely push 20 percent themselves.
- If you're multi entering, it could be a day to go the Fanduel route on DraftKings and play some one-offs from a team you expect to lose. I will likely stick to the tried and true methods of lineup construction, varying which sides I go heavier on or paying down at captain to try to get different.
- The Gen G match should be the higher paced of the two sets, but as I mentioned earlier, I think that T1 could have the sneakier upside as AFS might draw more out of them in a closer match. Heavy Gen G in cash, heavy T1 in SE, a touch of AFS in 3-5 max, and maybe one or two hail marys in case of the unthinkable.
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Readers of RotoBaller's eSports DFS articles have been winning money on DraftKings and FanDuel regularly. Some of them are winning contests daily and bringing in some serious cheddar. Check one out below and lots more here!
Did you read a RotoBaller article and win too? Send us your screenshots on Twitter @RotoBaller and we'll add it to our winners Hall Of Fame!
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— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) April 16, 2020
