RADIO
Jason Malmanger's expert League of Legends (LoL) DFS advice and DraftKings & FanDuel lineup picks for LCK on 2/19/21. His top LoL value plays and esports DFS recommendations.
In the weirdest of scenarios last evening, I spent a great deal of time defending HLE against NSRF. I'm not too fond of HLE, and I think they stink. They went above and beyond the call of duty last night to prove me right, and now I'm prepared fully for them to upset DWG at the end of the week with Deft rising from the grave to lead the charge with another 20 kill match thanks to me declaring him dust again today. Oh, and Afreeca are very bad. Who knew? Let's move on from this tilt fest.
After the first game today, we'll be at the spring split's midway point for the LCK. That means all the remaining matches will be rematched from the start of the season, so we'll have some interesting data points. First off, though, we'll have DRX versus T1 as both teams try to hold their position in the playoffs. KT and Fredit Brion face off in the late match, and we're going to be again guessing at some of the starters in that one.
Today I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Friday, February 19th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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3:00 AM: DRX (+195) vs. T1 (-275)
Both team's first-half results, I think, would be called surprising by most experts. With DRX sitting in fourth place and T1 in fifth, the perception is that T1 has underperformed and DRX overperformed. I think that's a pretty accurate statement. We'll get to see T1's lineup before lock, which is always a bonus, and these two teams will get a head start on figuring out if the first half was a fluke.
I like T1's odds here. Their constant roster swapping has undermined their consistency, but they have had the same starters for the last two matches in a row. If that trend continues here, I'll be very confident in them picking up the win. DRX has struggled in the early game. T1 will have every opportunity to put this one away with the edge in first blood, rift heralds, first turret, first three turrets, first drake, and GD@15. The teams are even in vision numbers, and DRX has a slight edge in baron numbers. Other than that, T1 runs the team stats.
It's difficult to compare the players without knowing who will start for T1. Though I can nearly guarantee we get Zeus in the top lane, that will be a win for T1. Pyosik will have the edge over whoever T1 starts in the jungle. In the mid-lane, SOLKA sits balanced between either of the T1 mids. The bottom lane, I feel it's pretty likely T1 sends out Gumayusi to start, and he, along with Keria, should have the edge there.
T1 with the team stats, and T1 with the talent, T1 looks good to me, and I'll take them to sweep this matchup. They should be able to establish a big enough lead to hold off the late charge from the side of DRX, and if they can keep Pyosik from stealing key late objectives, they should walk through the side of DRX. DRX will go into the match with the blue side, and so maybe the first pick can get them a bit closer to a victory. If you do dabble in some DRX, I would keep it to smaller stacks. I believe T1 has too much here and will win 2-0.
Top T1 Plays:
- Gumayusi - ADC - It all
- Keria - SUP - depends
- Ellim - JNG - on who
- Zeus - TOP - is starting
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5:00 AM: KT Rolster (-290) vs. Fredit Brion (+205)
The end of the early match will mark the halfway point in the LCK season. We'll have the previous games that the teams have played against one another to show us the way from here on out. That is one nice thing about the smaller nature of the LCK; as compared to the LPL, we get to see these teams go head to head twice in the double round-robin format. We saw this Fredit squad upset KT 2-1, with both wins coming from the blue side in week four. The teams now swap sides of the map and will run it back again.
KT should be up early as they lead BRO in GD@15, rift heralds, first turret, and first three turrets. They also have a better economy with significant leads in CSM and GPM. Fredit does have the edge in the first drake and total drakes. KT has a much better baron rate, and the teams sit equal in vision numbers. Overall, I think KT's chance to jump out to an early lead favors them in the stats department.
KT again is trying to throw a spanner into the works. They have announced that both Blank and Bonnie are being sent down to the Challengers League. They called up both reserve jungler Gideon and reserve adc Noah. We saw KT establish a nice lead in game one versus DWG, only to have Damwon chip away at it through superior map movements and team fighting. Better team fighting and allowing their opponent to make the mistakes is how Brion took down SBG. These moves and the effect on the team's consistency increase, for me, the chance of a Brion upset. I'm going to stick with KT for the win but narrowly with a 2-1.
Top KT Plays:
- Hybrid - ADC - leads the team with a 35% kill share and carries sub-risk now that Noah has joined the roster.
- Zzus - SUP - another of the three players you can count on to not be subbed.
- Gideon - JNG - nearly 70% KP would lead the team, and his 25.8% KS on the year would be second.
- Doran - TOP - 007 might not be the best top laner in the league, but he is the best one in this matchup.
Top BRO Plays:
- Hena - ADC - leads the team at 38% kill share 78% kill participation.
- Delight - SUP - nearly 80% kp.
- Umti - JNG - 81.3% KP and 23.4% KS.
- Lava - MID - 78% KP.
Summary
- TLDR: T1 2-0, KT 2-1, Brion will always be live with their team fighting and insane team KP%. They will also be popular with KT making the roster moves and coming off a big win to start the week.
- KT curiously shows well versus DWG and then remakes the roster. I don't even trust that Hybrid will get the start following Noah's call-up. I'll be watching that betting line closely to try to gauge ownership.
- All the teams are very close in terms of projected kills in a win, so it's pretty wide open for your stacking options. If you're going with KT, I will favor jamming in T1 plays looking for a sweep, but if you fancy Fredit, I'd make them your big stack.
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