RADIO
I said yesterday that KT had been my kryptonite this spit, and even though we saw Damwon pull out that win, I think that moniker still holds as the rollercoaster continued with a slate breaking performance. Brion came through for me in the second set fighting their way clear of an SBG team that looked flat after the break. Starting the second half going 2-0 feels good, man, but we have to keep that momentum rolling today.
Oh, boy, I know you're already dreading Gen G in the late game. In their last match before the break versus Nongshim, Gen did go back to the main roster, and I hope that's where we see them today. Speaking of Nongshim, they have the early match with Hanwa Life Esports. Day two of the second half of the LCK season is here. Let's take a closer look.
Today I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Thursday, February 18th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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3:00 AM: Nongshim RedForce (+185) vs. HLE (-260)
Nongshim had a rough week four coming into the break, losing both matches and only picking up a single game win. Though when you consider, they played T1 and Gen G, that's to be expected. HLE is surprisingly third in the league right now. Liiv SBG sweeping HLE to close out week four was also quite a surprise. HLE will be looking to correct their draft issues here and get back on the right path.
HLE should have the edge early as they have a decided advantage in turret and herald percentages. The first brick gold and their superior laning translate into a tidy lead in GD@15 for the side of HLE. Nongshim holds a slight edge in first drakes, but Hanwa leads in total drakes. Surprisingly the team's baron percentages are equal; that's not what you'd expect from a third versus eighth matchup. When you look at the difference in the experience of the junglers, you see why as Peanut has made the smite steal something of a habit this split. Unfortunately for NSRF, the biggest strength of HLE is also their biggest weakness. Chovy should smash the mid-lane matchup. Chovy leads the league in CSM, GD@10, and XPD@10, while Bay is last among full-time mids.
I don't think Nongshim can overcome HLE's edge in the Chovy department and how that will affect the rest of the map. HLE's stumble against Liiv was due mainly to some disrespectful drafting and poor early gameplay. They should have the edge in the laning phase in this one, as well as being able to claim the first turret and an early gold lead. I am concerned a bit with NSRF having the blue side for first pick advantage as HLE are 3-8 on the red side this split. Unfortunately for RedForce, this, along with Peanuts jungle edge, will probably only allow them to keep the game closer than it should be. That means more kills for HLE. I have them at nearly 19 kills in a win, and that's three kills clear of their nearest competition on the slate. I'll be doing everything I can to ram and jam HLE into my lineups on Thursday.
Top HLE Plays:
- Chovy - MID - leads the team in KP% and is narrowly second in KS% to Deft.
- Arthur - JNG - second in KP%, third in KS%, and will continues to benefit from Chovy's dominance in the mid lane.
- Deft - ADC - leads the team in KS%.
- Vsta - SUP - prioritizing HLE leads me here; unless DuDudunga gets the start in the top lane, then I'd likely go there. I'll take the risk with the revolving door in the top lane for HLE as I suspect they'll eventually realize he is the better option.
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5:00 AM: AFS (+315) vs. Gen G (-500)
None of us are excited about Gen G in the late game after all their pre-break shenanigans. They swapped junglers and mids in the weeks leading up to break before finally putting the main roster back together for the final match, a 2-0 win over Nongshim. Afreeca remains a frustrating team to project this far. I don't think they are good, but every time I write them off, they come up with something like their 2-0 over the likes of T1. They followed that upset with a pair of 1-2 losses in week four leading into the break. Second place versus seventh place seems like an open and shut case, but let's dig in and take a closer look.
Afreeca has been surprising in the early game with a lead in both first drakes and rift heralds over Gen G. Gen has a decided edge in first turret rates but only a 1% lead in first blood with 2% in the first three turrets. Gen G has a better GD@15, which is in keeping with their superior laning and GPM stats. Afreeca has the advantage in total drakes, but Gen has a much more prominent lead in baron percentage and vision numbers. Overall, Gen G has a slight edge in the team stats.
Jungle has been a bit problematic for Gen G this split, and they have swapped between Clid and Flawless then back again. Rascal maintains his spot on top of the LCK top-laners, but Kiin has regained some of his past form. BDD similarly holds a slight edge in the mid-lane over Fly, but again, this position has troubled Gen G. They tried out Karis, their academy mid laner, in the loss to DRX. Ruler and Life should run away with the bot lane as Ruler remains at or near the top of the league's adcs. Talent-wise I think Gen G also has the advantage here.
Gen G should win this match, but I believe it may be closer than Vegas, or we think. Their projected kill numbers are lower than HLE; add that to their spot in the late match with the possibility of further swaps, and I'll be looking at small stacks from this one. I have AFS projected for the second-most kills on the slate in a win, and so if you're looking for a dog or a one-off, this might be the spot.
Top Gen Plays:
- Ruler - ADC - tops the team in KS%.
- Rascal - TOP - always in play third on the team in KS%.
- Clid - JNG - leads the team in KP% and is second in KS%, but still a risk to be subbed.
Summary
- TLDR: HLE 2-1, Gen G 2-0. Even though I think we could see NSRF pick up a game with the advantage of the blue side, HLE will be my top priority on this slate. Gen G might have some more swaps for us, but unfortunately, we won't know pre-lock.
- It might not sound like it, but I do like both favorites here quite a bit. Most of Gen G's struggles are due to them looking to the future, be it World's or next year. I still think AFS are a bottom-half team.
- Tomorrow will be the true mid-point of the season for the LCK, believe it or not. It's been a quick spring split, and before we know it, we'll be into the playoffs and hoping for an actual MSI this year.
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