RADIO
I've had more than a few of you reach out on Twitter this past week, wondering where the LPL and LCK have gone. The majority of LOL dfsers picked up the sport post-covid last year and are not aware that this spring break period is a fact of life in the eastern regions as they pause for a week or two over the Lunar New Year holiday. Previously there were only one to two weeks of play before the break, but this year both the LCK and LPL got in nearly half a split pre-LNY.
Now we're back with the LCK leading off this week with a series of two-game slates. Today we've got one sure thing with DWG and KT in the early game and a much closer match in the late game with Fredit Brion versus Liiv SBG. There are some possible roster swaps in that late-game, so we'll have to watch out. Break was nice, but games are better. Let's jump in.
Today I'll provide my League of Legends advice, analysis, and picks, for this LCK slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that locks at 3:00 AM on Wednesday, February 17th, 2021. Make sure you follow me on Twitter @Mr_Malmanger as I often post starting lineups when I see them and other useful info for the slate.
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3:00 AM: KT Rolster (+525) vs. DWG (-1000)
I often talk about there being no sure things, and even DWG confirmed that with an early-season loss to Fredit Brion of all teams. Since that loss in week two, Damwon Kia has ripped off five series wins, dropping only a single game to Gen G in the process. On the other hand, KT continues to be my LCK kryptonite defying my predictions left and right, but I believe I finally have them exactly where I want them. Before I declare this 1000% cut and dried, we better take a cursory look at the stats.
Unsurprisingly DWG is the best early game team in the LCK, and their average GD@15 of nearly 1600 gold helps confirm that. Damwon Kia also holds the best marks in LCK for rift herald, first turret, and first three turrets. They fall off a bit with a 50% rating for first dragon but recover in the late game with again league-leading numbers in dragons and baron. You don't need me to tell you that DWG is head and shoulders the best team in the LCK. You might worry about the prevailing blue side edge being with KT Rolster, but you shouldn't, as DWG is 7-1 on the red side with a better win rate than blue. I don't even think my KT curse can overcome the reigning champions.
Statistically superior, Damwon also has the numerical edge on this slate. They have the best kill projection of any of the four teams. Everyone will be approaching this the same way, looking to jam in big DWG stacks. That seems correct to me, but I won't forget about the team slot as their statistical dominance has led to some massive scores from that position. First blood is the only area that KT outstrips the champs, and that is a meager 35% to 33% edge.
Top DWG Plays:
- Showmaker - MID - honestly, all of DWG is in play depending on who your stack partner is with them, but in DWG's wins, Showmaker leads them in KP% and is second in KS%, making him my first choice.
- Canyon - JNG - sits second in KP% and third in KS%.
- Ghost - ADC - the KS% leader, and patch 11.3 further emphasizes the adc.
- Beryl - SUP - if Ghost gets boosted, it's hard not to take Beryl along for the ride.
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5:00 AM: Fredit Brion (+160) vs. Liiv SBG (-225)
The opener was easy enough, but this one will be a bit more tightly contested. The cellar dwellers of the LCK both picked up wins in week four before the break, with Fredit upsetting KT before falling to T1 to end the week. SBG dropped their first set 0-2 to Damwon, but a shocking upset of HLE 2-0 closed week four on a very bright note. I'm willing to give BRO a pass in the loss to T1, as Lava was out sick and Chieftan, their backup jungler, played in the mid lane. Let's take a look at the tale of the tape.
Liiv has been a better early game team all split but has had trouble closing out matches. Fredit is nearly the opposite, struggling a bit early but better at hanging around and fighting late to pick up wins. SBG has the edge in rift heralds and has converted those into turrets, leading in the first turret and first three turrets by healthy margins. Liiv also holds the lead in GD@15 and first drake while the teams are even in first blood percentage. When Liiv beat HLE, they could stay on top of those early leads they generated and not allow Hanwa to scale. They should be able to do the same here with a better drake rate than BRO and a slightly worse baron percentage.
Liiv SBG has the statistical edge, and their betting line is already on the move securing them as bigger favorites. I have some concerns, though, as Fredit has been a pesky team with good coordination and decent team fighting. SBG just signed Prince, the former FPX backup adc before break, and he could debut here. Of course, this being the late game, we won't know which of the three SBG adcs will get the nod. Regardless I prefer the BRO bot duo of Hena and Delight, and I also think that BRO holds the advantage in the jungle, with Umti slightly over Croco. Those have been the two most crucial positions on the map so far this season. Patch 11.3 has made some significant changes to the jungle meta, and it will be interesting to see how the eastern regions react.
I think we'll see SBG be higher-owned, but BRO will not be sneaky on a two-game slate. This betting line keeps moving in favor of SBG, which can pull more ownership their way. I think Fredit can pick up the upset here, but SBG has them statistically outmatched. With the possibility of turmoil in the bottom lane on the side of SBG, I like that matchup for Hena more and more. Lava should be back in the mid-lane for Brion, but Yaharong is eligible to play now as well. The move for this second game is to split your exposure, but I'll take the underdogs to pick up the win.
Top BRO Plays:
- Hena - ADC - tied for the team lead in KP% and nearly 40% KS.
- Delight - SUP - equals his adc in KP%.
- Umti - JNG - a step behind in KP%, and 25.5% KS is good for second on the team.
- Hoya - TOP - good matchup with Summit, who is second on SBG in death percentage.
Top Liiv Plays:
- Fate - MID - clear advantage over Lava in the mid lane.
- Croco - JNG - second to Fate in KP% and a close third in KS%.
- Summit - TOP - does lead the team in death percentage, but in stacks with DWG, his numbers are comparable to those of Khan.
Summary
- TLDR: DWG 2-0, Fredit 2-1. My upset calls never pan out, so I think playing both sides of the second match is the way to go. Live that hedge life, baby.
- Damwon will be the priority here, but if you're looking to be chalky without being chalky, try a full stack from SBG; just be careful of their possible adc swaps. Fwiw, I think it will be Route.
- Better yet, rock a full Brion stack with the DWG team and hope their excellent team kill participation of 2.6 assists per kill powers them to the top.
- Two-gamers are here for a week as next Thursday will be the first four-game slate. Both LPL and LCK have rearranged the schedule a bit after the new year, with the LPL giving us the big slates on Saturdays and the LCK going down to four days a week after this first week back.
- So welcome back everyone to what we'll call a soft launch of the second half of the season for the big boy regions. I hope you're all ready to eat some chalk in these coming two-gamers, I'm not, but I am excited to have some insomniac action back in my life.
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