Joining the Launch Angle Revolution: Potential Power Risers

Launch angle has become perhaps the trendiest stat in all of fantasy baseball. If you turn on any podcast, you hear analysts mentioning that "if a player could only increase his launch angle, he could be a stud" (cough - Yandy Diaz - cough). Often, I think this analysis is oversimplified. Launch angle is obviously an important metric, but it's not so simple to alter. Since launch angle is achieved by the path of the bat en route to contact, it is predicated on the mechanics of a hitter's entire swing. In order to change his launch angle, a batter needs to change the path of the swing, positioning of the hands, or placement of the feet, etc. Not all hitters can do that and remain effective hitters (hint: I don't think Diaz can make this change).

However, there are some players that have been able to make these alterations, which has led to increased productivity and fantasy value. Below is a chart of the top-15 hitters in terms of an increased launch angle from the 2019 season. Some of them will be fantasy viable, but we can't buy in simply because they improved in one metric.

The optimal launch angle has long been discussed as being between 15 and 20 degrees. At that angle, if a player makes solid contact with the ball, it gives him the best chance to drive it out of the park. However, the key factor here is the quality of the contact. The two are inextricably linked. As Jeff Zimmerman wrote, "Hitters who average 85 mph or more exit velocity have the ability to reach the “Barrel”/home run region so they want to get their launch angle averaging around 20 degrees to maximize both their hits and home runs." So while it's important for us to look at launch angle numbers, they are not useful unless we use them in correlation with other stats like exit velocity (which you can find here).

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Top 10 Launch Angle Risers

In order to help you make sense of what on the below leaderboard is useful and what is just noise, I've added a short blurb with some thoughts on some of the players below and how you should view them headed into 2020.

Ian Desmond (OF, COL)

This is weirdly interesting. 8.4-degrees is not a particularly impressive launch angle, but Desmond finished with a 0-degree launch angle (yes, zero) in both 2017 and 2018, so it's clear that he's making a conscious adjustment. When you pair that with his 90.6 mph exit velocity, which was good for 54th in all of baseball, it becomes something to take note of.

Now, Desmond currently doesn't have a starting job, and the launch angle would need to climb even more for me to fully buy-in, but he does play his home games in Colorado and the Rockies have shown a tendency to play veterans instead of promising rookies. Launch angle is a metric that stabilizes relatively quickly, after about 70 batted balls, so if Desmond continues to raise his launch angle and hit the ball hard, he could capitalize on the slow start of a rookie like Sam Hilliard. He's not worth drafting, but this information makes him somebody I want to keep an eye on in deeper leagues.

Travis Shaw (3B, TOR)

Right away, we have our first example of how raising launch angle can be a bad thing. Shaw apparently changed his swing prior to the 2019 season and boy, did it backfire. After hitting 30 home runs in back-to-back years, Shaw's re-worked swing led to a launch angle that was outside of the optimal range; his infield fly ball's increase, his HR/FB% decreased, and his ISO plummeted despite his exit velocity actually improving slightly and his Hard Hit% remaining the same. More importantly, the new bat path caused a massive spike in K% from 18% to 33%, which is, as you can imagine, not good.

Shaw claims he's going back to his old swing, and the contact metrics suggest he's still making good contact, so reverting to his old mechanics could lead to another 30+ home run season. Unfortunately, Shaw has gone 1-11 with seven strikeouts to only one walk in his first five spring training games. I was excited to buy in on the bounceback, but the elevated K% in spring has me a little cautious. I need to wait and see now. Perhaps he's fully broken after that swing change; sometimes you just can't get the mechanics back.

Delino DeShields (OF, CLE)

I didn't expect to see DeShields with a launch angle above 10, but, unfortunately, it doesn't move the needle for me. His exit velocity was 82.9 mph last year, good for 246th in the league, and he currently doesn't have a roster spot in Cleveland. Oscar Mercado, Domingo Santana, and Jordan Luplow seem locked into roster spots, and Greg Allen is a superior defender to DeShields. Plus, DeShields has a minor league option left, which makes me think he's likely to begin the year in Triple-A. Even if he does get called up, his launch angle increase means very little when he hits the ball so softly. In fact, it might even be a detriment since he makes his hay with his legs. I'm not buying into this.

Edit: With the Oscar Mercardo injury (pending final diagnosis), DeShields becomes slightly more interesting. I don't think his increased launch angle will help him become more a productive hitter, and I still think he's at risk of being bumped down to Triple-A by any of Jake Bauers, Daniel Johnson, and Bradley Zimmer; however, DeShields did steal 24 bases while being a below-average hitter last year, so if he finds himself in the lineup, he will accrue some steals. You can always cut him when/if he gets demoted. 

Juan Soto (OF, WAS)

This is just another example of why Soto erupted into a true fantasy star in 2019. He began to optimize his launch angle and hit the ball hard - 91.3 mph (27th in the league) - which helped make him a truly elite contributor. Since we've established that the ideal launch angle is 15-20 degrees, Soto could even experience a little bit more power growth if he raises his launch angle even a little more than last year. It's something to keep an eye on in the early weeks to see if Soto can find another level.

Adam Eaton (OF, WAS)

Often overlooked, Adam Eaton made some adjustments in 2019 which led to a career-high 15 home runs and his first double-digit home run season since 2016. Granted, he's been injured a lot since then, but that's why people are so quick to forget about him. While he doesn't hit the ball extremely hard, his 86.6 mph exit velocity is enough to get the ball out of the yard with this new launch angle. He also stole 15 bases last year, which makes him a sneaky 15-15 threat in a strong lineup. If he does slot into the No. 2 spot in the batting order, as Roster Resource suggests, then Eaton could be a great source of runs with a modest power-speed combo, which makes him a strong pick outside the top-200.

Ketel Marte (2B, ARI)

Another player who experienced a breakout thanks, in part, to an improved launch angle. There was certainly more to Marte's success than doubling his launch angle, but it didn't hurt. His 89.8 mph exit velocity was good for 85th in the league and was marginally better than his career numbers. While his increased launch angle is positive, it still doesn't make his 32 home runs sustainable. Marte benefited from a 19% HR/FB ratio, which was almost double his career numbers.

Raising his launch angle and decreasing his GB% will certainly help keep his home run totals above what we've seen in the past; however, I would expect something in the mid-20s and not anything over 30 again, so bake that into your draft value. Still, 25 home runs and 10 stolen bases with an average pushing .300 keeps him as a top 50-60 player.

Maikel Franco (3B, KC)

I swore to myself that I was done with Maikel Franco, but...this is... tempting. A 15-degree launch angle plus an exit velocity of 89 mph put Franco in the sweet spot for home run production. His K% remains under 15%, his BB% increased to 8.4% last year, and he under-performed all of his x-stats. Plus, now that he's out of Philadelphia, he's locked into full-time at-bats as the Royals' starting third baseman. Oh, man. Am I buying in again? No, I can't. Well, not fully. I'll definitely keep an eye on him though as 500-plus at-bats in the heart of a lineup with these metrics present the possibility of him demonstrating the power potential we have all hoped for all these years.

Nomar Mazara (OF, CHW)

The improved launch angle is good, but 10 degrees is still not something that is going to help him drive balls out of the yard. Additionally, his 89.1 exit velocity was good for 124th in the league, which is similarly uninspiring. There have been indications that Mazara has been battling a thumb injury for a couple of years now, which might explain why he hasn't been able to reach the power heights that many hoped he would.

Despite the increase in launch angle, decrease in GB%, and increase in ISO, Mazara hit one fewer home run than the year before. The batted ball growth is good to see, but I'm just not seeing enough in the full profile that makes me believe Mazara will be more than a 20 home run bat with a .260 average. It's useful in many fantasy leagues, but I don't seem him growing into a true difference-maker.

Brett Gardner (OF, NYY)

It's funny that Gardner and Eaton are both on this list because they are similar in so many ways.

Both of them are former speedsters trying to re-make themselves to retain value with their diminished speed. Likely as no coincidence, they're both being largely forgotten about by fantasy owners. Straight up, I prefer Gardner to Eaton, especially with the uncertainty in the Yankees outfield with injuries to both Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. Gardner's launch angle is closer to optimal and his  87.2 mph average exit velocity is superior to Eaton's.

What's more, as a left-handed hitter in Yankee Stadium, Gardner is able to use the short porch in right field, which helped him to 28 home runs last year. Projection systems don't seem to buy it, but Gardner is clearly trying to make use of his field as he upped his Pull% over 8% to 46.4%. I don't see any reason why Gardner can't hit another 20 home runs this year while stealing 10+ bases and hitting near the top of a strong Yankees lineup. That's crazy value at pick 332.

Andrew Benintendi (OF, BOS)

Here we have an example of somebody who should have left his launch angle alone. Benintendi's increase, to me, is a little bit of a hint at why the 2019 season went sideways for him. His 88.6 mph exit velocity, near 2% growth in barrel%, and 4% growth in Hard Hit% should have led to more home runs, not fewer. However, Benintendi altering his approach to try to hit for more power seemed to backfire. He raised his FB% over 5% but his K% went up almost 7% and, most importantly, his infield fly ball percentage went up over 6% to 10.3%.

What this tells me is that trying to change his launch angle led to more pop-ups and less power for the left-hander. Benintendi was always more of a gap power hitter with a solid approach and a high average. I don't believe he's a player who's meant to hit 30 home runs and attempting to become one was problematic for him. I know fantasy owners want home runs, but I'd like to see Benintendi go back to his gap approach, being comfortable with being a 20-home run hitter with a solid BB%, .290 average, good run totals, and the 20+ stolen bases he had in 2017 and 2018. My hope is that his new home at the top of the Boston lineup will allow him to go back to that type of hitter. It may not be 30 home runs, but 20-20 with a solid average and counting stats is a worthwhile fantasy performer.

Mallex Smith (OF, SEA)

This isn't for me. His launch angle isn't high enough to hit home runs and his 84.2 mph exit velocity was 238th in the league. He's a player who needs to be hitting the ball on the ground and using his speed. I'm not going to be one to roster Mallex because I don't trust his ability as a hitter.

Rougned Odor (2B, TEX)

Listen, I'm never going to pass up on an opportunity to talk about my boy, Rougned. I've mentioned him at length here and here and here, so I'd urge you to check those out to see why I love him this year.

Jorge Soler (OF, KC)

This is another one that's quite simple. When you pair a rise in launch angle to an optimum level with the 11th highest average exit velocity in all of baseball (92.6 mph), and consistent playing time, you get the power breakout that we saw from Soler. While he may not push 50 home runs again, the power is real, and he's a threat to hit 40 while hitting in the middle of the lineup. There's no reason not to buy-in.

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