Late-Round Wide Receivers To Outperform ADP

Value. It is one of the essential ways to win a fantasy football championship. Maximizing late-round picks into productive players will be more important than ever in 2020 thanks to the COVID pandemic that is currently gripping the world.

One of the best ways to capture fantasy value involves taking running backs early in your fantasy draft and getting high upside wide receivers later. Since so many teams utilize three wide receiver sets or spread personnel, it makes perfect sense to prioritize running backs (most teams only use one or two a game) and take shots on wide receivers later.

The purpose of this article is to help you identify the late-round wide receivers that have league winning upside so you can build the most effective fantasy team possible. All ADP cited below comes from the current NFFC ADP.

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Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers

WR57 - 12th/13th Round

Robby Anderson can be one of the most frustrating wide receivers to roster in fantasy football thanks to his boom or bust weeks. Anderson finished the 2019 campaign with the New York Jets as the WR40, averaging 10.1 points per week in PPR leagues. The fourth-year veteran caught 52 passes (96 targets) for 779 yards and five touchdowns. While those numbers aren’t overwhelming, there are some reasons to be optimistic for Anderson looking forward.

2019 was his third straight season seeing at least 90 targets, catching 50 passes, and at least five touchdowns. His 10.1 points per week were also the lowest mark for him since 2016. Anderson is only two years removed from a WR2 season when he finished as the WR18 for the Jets thanks to 63 receptions, 941 yards, and seven touchdowns. Anderson may have been very valuable this whole time, but being stuck with the Jets, and recently Adam Gase, capped his value due to inconsistencies in the offense.

The Panthers recognized Anderson’s talent, signing him to a two-year, $20 million deal (with $12 million in year 1) to be another speedy option in their offense. Anderson is reunited with his college coach at Temple (Matt Rhule) and joins an offense that has an innovative head coach in Joe Brady. Aside from that, the Panthers boast complimentary weapons in Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore, Curtis Samuel, and Ian Thomas that are more talented than anybody Anderson played within New York. Finally, the stability provided by Teddy Bridgewater could also benefit Anderson compared to the more erratic arm talent provided by Sam Darnold. The Panthers vacated 155 targets (25.8%) from last season, so even with the talented wide receiver corps, there is plenty of opportunity for work for Robby Anderson in Carolina.

A familiar coach with an innovative offensive coordinator and high-octane complimentary weapons may be just what Anderson needs to fully unlock his potential and get him to WR2 status again. At the very least, Anderson is currently being drafted a full round later than his worst finish in the tumultuous Jets offense, making him a great value in the late round.

Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars

WR77 - 17th/18th Round

Another rookie with massive potential is the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Laviska Shenault. Shenault burst onto the scene at Colorado in 2018, putting up 86 catches on 110 targets for 1,011 yards and six touchdowns in just nine games. Shenault also added 17 carries for 115 yards and five scores that season as well. Shenault was one of the more dynamic players in the PAC-12 who mixed consistent hands and dynamic running ability after the catch with the body type (6’1, 227 pounds) to take the world by storm.

Shenault fell in the draft (second-round selection, ninth receiver overall) thanks to an underwhelming 2019 season (56 catches on 82 targets for 764 yards and four scores.) and a disastrous 40-yard dash (4.58) thanks to a core injury that he got surgery on after the NFL combine. Because of these factors, Shenault is flying under the radar.

While the Jaguars don’t necessarily have a lot of vacated targets (56 from 2019, 9%), there are still numerous places that Shenault can find work. Leonard Fournette is unlikely to replicate his 100-target performance from last season. The Jaguars also funneled 127 targets into the likes of Keelan Cole, Ryquell Armstead, James O’Shaughnessy, Seth Devalve, Geoff Swaim, and Nick O’Leary. That should open up more than enough opportunity for Shenault before we even consider the fact that he is also dynamic enough to see work out of the backfield as a runner as well.

Laviska Shenault may not be the biggest name rookie in this class, but with a terrible Jaguars Defense and a consistent quarterback in Gardner Minshew, he should be poised to blow past his current ADP as WR77. His upside alone makes him worth a flier in the final rounds of your fantasy draft this season.

Steven Sims, Washington Redskins

WR80 - 18th/19th Round

The Washington Football Team has been a train wreck throughout the offseason, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t values hidden in the rough. One such value is second-year wide receiver Steven Sims. Sims finished his rookie season as WR66 but came on strong after the WFT’s week 10 bye. Sims caught 25 passes on 49 targets for 265 yards and four touchdowns and averaged 11.7 points per week on his way to a WR28 finish in weeks 11-17.

Washington has already lost projected starting running back Derrius Guice (domestic violence arrest and cut from team) and wide receiver Kelvin Harmon (ACL tear) before the season, allowing Sims a greater chance to work with the starters again last season. Sims struggled to beat out Trey Quinn after training camp as a rookie, but a year in the offense combined with clear rapport with Dwayne Haskins makes him the favorite to man the slot receiver role again in 2020. Explosive rookie Antonio Gibson will likely see most of his work in the backfield now with the loss of Guice, so one of Sims’ big competitors from slot reps has been repurposed elsewhere.

The Washington Football Team has 134 targets (28.9) to replace from last season, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to watch Steven Sims rise to the occasion. Given his last round ADP, Sims makes for an excellent bench stash so you can use your coveted waiver wire priority or FAAB elsewhere after week one of the 2020 regular season.

Jalen Reagor, Philadelphia Eagles

WR53 - 11th/12th Round

UPDATE 8/31: On Sunday 8/30 - after this article was written - it was reported that Jalen Reagor will miss at least the next month as he recovers from a shoulder tear that he sustained during practice Sunday.

Jalen Reagor may gain enough value in the weeks between now and the regular season to be excluded from this list, but he is currently going off the board here in the NFFC ADP data. Reagor is currently in the midst of an excellent camp according to beat reports and finds himself in a fantastic situation in Philadelphia. Alshon Jeffrey will likely be starting the season on the PUP list and Miles Sanders suffered an ambiguous lower-body injury in camp, leaving Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, Greg Ward, and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside as the leading returning receivers from 2019. DeSean Jackson also returns to the Eagles this season, but he has played 16 games only twice in his entire career.

8/31 Update: Shortly after writing this, Jalen Reagor went down with a labrum tear that will likely cause him to miss the first two or three games of the Eagles' season. The good news is Reagor will be able to avoid surgery and a prolonged absence in the Eagles offense. We also have a recent example of how this injury works thanks to the Bears' Anthony Miller the last two seasons. Ultimately, it comes down to pain management and the ability to withstand likely dislocations during games. The bad news is this will be an injury that could linger throughout the season and causes Reagor to miss at least two games (Week 1 at Washington and Week 3 vs Cincinnati) that featured weak secondaries. It also provides a chance for Alshon Jeffery to heal up and return, which could limit Reagor's ability to soak up early targets in the passing game.

From a fantasy perspective, this may actually make drafting Reagor a bit easier for me. Any injury news causes player value to dip, especially with rookies in redraft leagues. I was already in at his ADP when writing this article and any chance to scoop him up a round or two later is welcomed. Reagor is still the most talented receiver on this roster and his greatest asset, his speed, is unaffected by this injury. Reagor will likely slot into a steady workload and will still be competing with an injury-prone DeSean Jackson for touches so long as he isn't completely overtaken by less talented options (Greg Ward, J.J. Arcega-Whiteside, or John Hightower specifically). 

The Eagles recognized this weakness in their team, adding Jalen Reagor (first round), John Hightower (fifth round), and Quez Watkins (sixth round) to their receiver room. Reagor is the one with the most to gain thanks to draft capital. The Eagles have been moving Reagor all around the formation so far and he would seem to be the first beneficiary to extra snaps should Jeffery miss significant time. Reagor was able to overcome an erratic 2019 at TCU (mainly due to terrible quarterback play) to become a first-round pick thanks to a stellar sophomore season (72 receptions on 133 targets for 1,061 yards and nine touchdowns) and an excellent showing at the combine (4.47 40 yard dash).

Even assuming Jeffery and Sanders are healthy to begin the season, the Eagles vacated 128 targets from last year’s team. Reagor will be first in line to absorb a lot of that work and given his explosive ability and the Eagles above-average quarterback play, Reagor is poised to finish closer to a top-40 option at the wide receiver position instead of his current ADP of WR53. As a word to the wise, feel free to pull the trigger in drafts near round 9 or 10, or else you could lose out on a potential game-changer for your fantasy team.

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