Later-Round Wide Receiver Draft Values for Fantasy Football - Best Ball Targets Include Chris Olave, Jalen Tolbert, Nico Collins

We have progressed into the final days of August, and many of you will maintain your involvement in best-ball leagues until the regular season is underway. The decisions that you make during every round remain important since the absence of in-season roster management also eviscerates any opportunity to use a waiver wire if your players are sidelined or consistently deliver substandard production. This enhances the importance of each selection once your drafts have advanced into the later rounds, and to identify potential fantasy football sleepers and draft values.

It also provides the rationale for creating this article, which is designed to help you capitalize on every opportunity that is presented after you have entered Round 10 of your drafts. Savvy fantasy managers are rewarded for their late-round decisions on an annual basis. This includes last season when three of the top 25 receivers - Darnell Mooney (112/WR47), Mike Williams (123/WR51), and Marquise Brown (139/WR57) - were not selected until Rounds 10-12 of the draft process.

The justification for examining your options closely until the conclusion of each draft was also cemented for anyone who drafted Amon-Ra St. Brown at his Round 20 ADP (239/WR74), then reaped the benefits of his late-season statistical eruption from Weeks 13-18. It also applied to those of you who selected Hunter Renfrow in deeper leagues (289/WR88), before he concluded the year at WR10.

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Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints

ADP: 113/WR46

Chris Olave put the DB in a blender 🌪 pic.twitter.com/mSVAMFVmfR

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) August 5, 2022

Olave’s fluid style and polished route running propelled him to historic numbers during his four seasons at Ohio State, as he exceeded the results that had been generated by a collection of esteemed alumni. Olave collected a school record 35 touchdowns - which was also the fourth highest total in Big Ten history. Olave’s 176 receptions also placed him third in school history, while his 2,702 yards vaulted him to fifth.

Olave also generated 840+ yards and 12+ touchdowns during both 2019 and 2021, including his 13 touchdowns last season - which tied him for sixth overall. The Saints traded up during April’s NFL Draft in order to seize Olave with the 11th overall pick. This has positioned him to commandeer an integral role in an offense that has undertaken a mammoth transformation following the departures of Drew Brees and Sean Payton.

The Saints’ aerial attack dropped to 28th in total offense (304.5 per game), which was the team’s first season since Brees’ retirement. New Orleans also plummeted to dead last in passing (187.4 yards per game) and 30th in pass play percentage (51.5%), which was also the team’s final season with Payton concocting the offense.

Jameis Winston spearheaded the attack from Weeks 1-8 before a torn ACL immediately ended his season. He ultimately combined with Trevor Siemian, Taysom Hill, and Ian Book for 29 touchdowns and a 58.1% completion percentage.

Winston will re-emerge under center in an aerial attack that will be designed by new offensive architect Pete Carmichael Jr. Winston will also be reliant on Olave, and veterans Michael Thomas, and Jarvis Landry as his top-three weapons at wide receiver.

This presents Olave with a legitimate opportunity to operate as the team’s WR2, while catapulting beyond Marquez Callaway, Tre’Quan Smith, and Landry on the Saints’ depth chart. He possesses an assortment of skills that will allow the Saints to deploy him outside or in the slot. This includes his undeniable speed, which should expedite his development into a dynamic downfield weapon.

CHRIS OLAVE TOUCHDOWN 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/iiL17MYPHk

— Barstool Ohio State (@BarstoolOSU) August 20, 2022

His skills should also complement Thomas, providing that his long-awaited reappearance transpires as expected. He amassed 32 touchdowns from 2016-2019 while averaging 9.6 targets, 7.5 receptions, and 87.5 yards per game. That includes his league-best numbers during 2019 (185 targets/11.6 per game), (149 receptions/9.3 per game), (1,725 yards/107.8 per game). However, Thomas is now 29, has not registered an offensive snap since December of 2020, and is now contending with a hamstring issue.

Landry is also 29 but should supply Winston with a reliable presence in the slot. He averaged 149 targets/96 receptions/1,086 receiving yards from 2015-2019.  However, he finished 2021 with career lows in targets (87/7.3 per game), receptions (52/4.3 per game), receiving yards (570/47.5 per game), and touchdowns (two).

The convergence of Olave’s talent and his opportunity in New Orleans’ restructured attack should enable him to surpass the expectations of his current ADP (113/WR46).

Jalen Tolbert, Dallas Cowboys

ADP: 163/WR61

Tolbert has emerged as an enticing late-round option, as he will enter his first season with an uncontested path toward consistent targeting. The 6’3", 190-pound Tolbert collected 178 receptions (4.5 per game) while generating 3,140 yards (78.5 per game) and 22 touchdowns during his four seasons at South Alabama. He also became the first 1,000-yard receiver in school history, while reaching that total in 2020 and 2021. That includes the 1,474/122.8 per game that he assembled last season, which placed him sixth among all wide receivers.

Tolbert also produced eight touchdowns in both of his final seasons.

Jalen Tolbert 🔥🔥🔥

TOUCHDOWN SOUTH ALABAMA pic.twitter.com/RQRv3J3OAP

— NCAAF Nation (@NCAAFNation247) September 25, 2020

He later became the 15th wide receiver to be selected during last April’s NFL Draft, when Dallas secured him in Round 3 (88th overall). He is now primed to ascend into a significant role after several wide receivers have been expunged from the Cowboys’ depth chart. This includes Amari Cooper, who captured 429 targets (7.7 per game) while collecting 292 receptions (5.2 per game) generating 3,893 receiving yards (69.5 per game), and scoring 27 touchdowns during his 56 regular season games with the Cowboys.

He was jettisoned to Cleveland in March, in a trade that transpired two days before Miami signed Cedrick Wilson Jr. to a three-year contract. Cooper and Wilson had combined for 165 targets last season (Cooper-104/6.9 per game/18.7% share, Wilson-61/3.8 per game/9.6% share), and their extraction from the roster has cleared a path for Tolbert to seize a favorable target share.

The level of opportunity that was created by the departures of Cooper and Wilson has expanded as Michael Gallup continues his recovery from the torn ACL that he suffered in January. He will eventually re-emerge in the Cowboys’ lineup, but it remains unclear when that will occur. Former Steeler James Washington was also expected to compete with Tolbert for targets. However, he encountered a broken foot earlier this month and will also be unavailable when the regular season launches.

The largest target share within the Cowboys’ reshaped receiving arsenal will be confiscated by CeeDee Lamb, as he operates as the primary receiving option for Dak Prescott. This has positioned Lamb to seize his place among the Tier 2 receivers while expanding upon his usage and output from 2021 (120 targets/7.5 per game), (79 receptions/4.9 per game), 1,102 yards/68.1 per game).

Dak connects with Rookie WR Jalen Tolbert for 6! ✭ #dallascowboys
(Via @jonmachota) pic.twitter.com/cB7wsNKAIq

— Dallas Cowboys Network (@TheCowboysNet) August 6, 2022

Noah Brown and Simi Fehoko have elicited conversation following their performances during training camp, and could also garner targets during the regular season. However, Brown has averaged 1.3 targets and 8.5 yards per game since 2017, while any involvement from Fehoko will not prevent Tolbert from capturing a sizable role.

Tolbert’s ADP was outside the top 400 (428/WR132) before the NFL Draft, but fantasy managers are not permitting his draft position to extend beyond Round 14. He is a viable option, and the confluence of talent and opportunity will help Tolbert reward anyone who seizes him at that point of their draft.

Nico Collins, Houston Texans

ADP: 168/WR65

Nico Collins was a fascinating player coming out of Michigan.

Incredible athlete, but QB play held him back.

Can't wait to see him in Year 2. https://t.co/XBh1uIsyw5

— Marcus Mosher (@Marcus_Mosher) August 8, 2022

Collins’ ADP has elevated five rounds since August 1, as an increasing number of fantasy managers have wisely embraced his uncontested pathway toward weekly WR2 responsibilities.

Collins only registered three receptions during his first season at Michigan. However, he accumulated 75 receptions (3.0 per game) and 1,388 receiving yards (54.4 per game) during 2018-2019 before opting out of the 2020 regular season that was impacted by COVID-19.

Houston selected the 6’4”, 215-pound Collins in Round 3 of the 2021 NFL Draft (89th overall), which infused him into a depth chart that was destined to operate with a dearth of talent - beyond Brandin Cooks. The 28-year-old Cooks capitalized on his substantial role within an otherwise forgettable collection of veterans by reaching the periphery of a 27% target share (26.9%), which placed him 10th among all wide receivers. He also eclipsed 1,000 yards for the sixth time during his last seven seasons (1,037/68.1 per game), while capturing a career-high 134 targets (8.4 per game).

Collins also benefitted from the Texans’ shortage of dynamic weaponry, even though his rookie season contained unexceptional season-long numbers. He still finished second on the team in a cluster of categories despite his uninspiring season totals (60 targets/4.3 per game, 33 receptions/2.4 per game, 446 yards/31.9 per game, 637 air yards, 353 routes). He was also targeted on 17% of his routes while averaging 1.26 yards per route run.

The Texans invested a second-round selection in John Metchie (44th overall) during April’s NFL Draft. However, the promising first-year receiver was diagnosed with leukemia in July and will be unavailable throughout the regular season.

This has ensured that Cooks and Collins will remain entrenched as Houston’s top two receiving weapons, as they reside atop a depth chart that is devoid of a legitimate threat to their roles with the team (Phillip Dorsett/Chester Rogers/Chris Conley).

Nico Collins with DeAndre Hopkins-esque TD catch on that one. Texans moved the ball when they stop trying to run the ball.pic.twitter.com/FG5IwwAu2u

— Andy Yanez (@AYanez_5) August 20, 2022

Collins possesses a favorable combination of size and speed, which should enable him to gain separation with increasing frequency during his development as a receiver. He should also benefit from the growing rapport that was built with Davis Mills during their rookie seasons and has been bolstered by their workouts during the offseason.

Collins averaged 5.0 targets, 3.3 receptions, and 42.3 yards per game from Weeks 3-8 when Mills was operating as the Texans’ starter. He later averaged 6.0 targets/3.0 receptions/43.6 yards per game from Weeks 14-18, after Mills reemerged under center.

Nico Collins has graduated from “sleeper” to “fix your ranks”

pic.twitter.com/EaM95cRiC0

— Jeff Bell (@4WhomJBellTolls) August 20, 2022

A monumental challenge awaits Mills, as he spearheads an attack that ranked dead last in total offense (278.1 yards per game), 30th in scoring (16.5 points per game), and failed to average 200 yards per game through the air (194.4). The offensive unit appears destined to trail frequently during their matchups again this season.

However, this presents Collins with an opportunity to become a weekly resource for fantasy managers. He is currently available until Round 14 of your drafts and should easily outperform the expectations of his ADP.

Josh Palmer, Los Angeles Chargers

ADP: 171/WR66

Josh Palmer shouldn’t be going 40-50 wide receivers later than Keenan Allen and Mike Williamspic.twitter.com/DIrPPc3Ggd

— Adam Koffler (@AdamKoffler) August 21, 2022

Palmer became the 11th wide receiver to be drafted from his rookie class when the Chargers selected him in Round 3 of the 2021 NFL Draft (77th overall). The 6’1", 210-pound Palmer finished third among LA’s wide receivers in targets (49/2.9 per game) and receptions (33/1.9 per game), while also accumulating 353 receiving yards (20.8 per game) and 495 air yards (29.1 per game).

He also completed his first season with a 38.3% snap share, as he operated from the slot on 57.5% of his 293 routes. His share was initially uninspiring from Weeks 1-13  (26.3%), while he averaged 2.1 targets, 1.5 receptions, and 16.8 yards per game. However, his snap share soared to 64.9% from Weeks 14-18. His per-game averages also rose in targets (5.6), receptions (3.3), and receiving yardage (37).

Without Keenan Allen in the lineup Josh Palmer shined. The rookie wide receiver ran a route on 94% of Justin Herbert’s dropbacks - same as Mike Williams - while commanding a team-high seven targets for 66 yards and one touchdown.#BoltUp pic.twitter.com/LTltVUuHbG

— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) December 13, 2021

Palmer has an opportunity to confiscate a larger target share this season, even though Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will sustain their roles as Justin Herbert’s top-two receiving weapons. The 30-year-old Allen has finished between WR3-WR13 from 2017-2021 while garnering target shares between 25%-27.8% and averaging 9.6 targets/6.5 receptions/75.9 yards per game during that sequence. Allen’s prolonged history of high productivity will soon reach a conclusion. However, he should finish as the Chargers’ WR1 this season.

Williams had never finished higher than WR32 from 2017-2020, but he vaulted to WR12 in 2021. He also secured new career highs in targets (129/8.1 per game), receptions (76/4.8 per game), receptions of 40+ (9), receiving yards (1,146/71.6 per game), yards after catch (415), and first downs (51). Williams signed a three-year contract extension in March and will retain his integral role in a potent attack that will be guided by second-year coordinator Joe Lombardi.

Even with the projected target shares that will be commandeered by Allen and Williams, Palmer’s outlook remains favorable. He also appears primed to ascend beyond fourth-year receiver Jalen Guyton on the depth chart, which is a requirement for Palmer to secure consistent usage as the team’s unquestioned WR3.

Guyton finished third behind Allen and Williams in receiving yards (448/28 per game) and air yards (503/29.7 per game) last season and nearly matched Palmer’s totals in targets (48/3.0 per game) and receptions (31/1.9 per game). Palmer (10.1) and Guyton (10.5) also finished with comparable aDOTs (average depth of target).

Guyton led Palmer in yards after catch per reception (4.8/2.8). However, Guyton also finished the season with an 8.3% drop rate, while Palmer completed the year with a percentage of 2.1%. Palmer also captured a higher percentage in targets per route run (16.7%/11.3%), along with a higher average in yards per route run (1.20/1.06).

ayooooo Joshua Palmer @flowercitysown | 📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/UegnVoGwan

— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) August 21, 2022

Palmer also delivered an impressive performance during the Chargers’ Week 2 preseason matchup with Dallas while collecting three of his four targets,  assembling 75 yards, and generating a 41-yard touchdown. This adds to the enormous rationale for elevating Palmer atop your list of receivers to target when your drafts have entered Round 14.

K.J. Osborn, Minnesota Vikings

ADP: 182/WR69 

Fired up to be back 🔥🔥 pic.twitter.com/7hHg9ENSVx

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) August 14, 2022

Minnesota secured the 5’ 11”, 205-pound Osborn during Round 5 of the 2020 NFL Draft (176th overall) after he had performed collegiately at Buffalo (96 receptions/1,490 yards/12 touchdowns), and Miami (50 receptions/547 yards/five touchdowns).

Osborn failed to register an offensive snap during his rookie season.  However, he accumulated 777 snaps (67.8% share) while making his entrance into the fantasy landscape in 2021. Osborne also garnered 82 targets (4.8 per game), 50 receptions (2.9 per game), 655 receiving yards (38.5 per game), and seven touchdowns.

Touchdown for K.J. Osborn! The play was ruled a touchdown and is currently under review. #Skol #MINvsCAR #NFL #NFLTwitter pic.twitter.com/0BEPP1BOTH

— Football Outsiders (@fboutsiders) October 17, 2021

He also accrued 855 air yards (51.2 per game/1.19 per snap), averaged 1.36 yards per route run, and attained a percentage of 17% in targets per route run. The transition from Mike Zimmer’s unwavering conservatism toward the promise of a more creative offensive strategy under first-year head coach Kevin O’Connell has fueled a significant degree of optimism as Osborn enters his third season.

O’Connell functioned as Sean McVay’s offensive coordinator during the last two years and he will blend elements of the Rams’ attack into Minnesota’s revamped offense.

1. Catch the ball

2. Score

3. Find the camera

4. Pose@KJ_Osborn pic.twitter.com/vWFjVXk4km

— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) August 6, 2022

This will include a significant increase in the deployment of three wide receivers sets (11 personnel). That will represent a departure from Osborne’s first two seasons under former offensive coordinators Gary Kubiak and Klint Kubiak, who implemented strategic approaches that were palatable with Zimmer’s penchant for the ground game.

Osborn should become the beneficiary of more opportunities, even though he will remain below Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen on the Vikings’ depth chart.

Jefferson will function as Minnesota’s primary receiving option and could easily finish as this year’s WR1 in scoring. He is now embedded among the league’s elite wide receivers, while already stockpiling 292 targets (8.8 per game/27.4% share), 196 receptions (5.9 per game), 1,508 receiving yards (91.4 per game), and 1,764 air yards (106.9 per game) during his first two seasons. Jefferson’s exceptional numbers will be sustained as Minnesota evolves toward greater reliance on the pass.

Thielen played in 16 games from 2014-2018 but has missed 11 matchups during his last three seasons. That includes his four-game absence during 2021 (ankle) as he was restricted to 29 snaps during the Vikings’ final six contests.

Thielen had been leading all wide receivers in snap count percentage (95.2%) and was tied for the league lead with 10 touchdowns from Weeks 1-12. He should remain highly involved when the Vikings enter the red zone.

However, any absence by the 31-year-old during the season would vault Osborne into a substantial role as the team's WR2 behind Jefferson. The potential for that scenario to develop converges with the infusion of O’Connell’s offense and Osborne’s talent to present you with an enticing option in Round 16 of your drafts.

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