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Mike Fanelli tells us which four quarterbacks that have a late round ADP could be fantasy football league winners this season. Should you draft these league-winning quarterbacks?
One of the more popular sayings in fantasy football is that you can’t win your league in the first round, but you can lose it. What that saying means is your season is likely over if your first-round pick is a bust. However, you are not guaranteed to win the league, even if your first-round pick is outstanding.
The reason is fantasy players win their league in the double-digit rounds, not the first 12 picks. The double-digit rounds are when you find the sleepers, gems, and potential league-winning players. However, that’s easier said than done, especially at the quarterback position.
It’s hard to find a late-round league winner at the quarterback position, given how talented the top four or five guys are every year. However, finding a late-round quarterback that vastly outperforms his ADP and becomes a critical part of your championship team is almost as valuable. Let’s look at which quarterbacks could be long-shot late-round league winners.
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Last Year’s Quarterback Recap
Let’s look at the top-12 quarterback drafted last year, according to FantasyData ADP.
- Josh Allen (finished 2nd)
- Justin Herbert (11th)
- Patrick Mahomes (1st)
- Joe Burrow (4th)
- Lamar Jackson (14th)
- Jalen Hurts (3rd)
- Kyler Murray (18th)
- Russell Wilson (16th)
- Aaron Rodgers (13th)
- Dak Prescott (19th)
- Tom Brady (12th)
- Matthew Stafford (32nd)
Only six of the top-12 quarterbacks drafted last season ended the year as a QB1. While Jackson, Murray, Prescott, and Stafford all missed at least five games last season, injuries are part of the game. Meanwhile, Rodgers didn’t miss a game, while Wilson played in 15 contests. Yet, both finished outside the QB1 range despite getting drafted as a top-12 quarterback.
Now let’s look at which quarterbacks finished top-12 last season.
- Patrick Mahomes (drafted 3rd)
- Josh Allen (1st)
- Jalen Hurts (6th)
- Joe Burrow (4th)
- Geno Smith (30th)
- Justin Fields (18th)
- Trevor Lawrence (19th)
- Kirk Cousins (15th)
- Daniel Jones (22nd)
- Jared Goff (25th)
- Justin Herbert (2nd)
- Tom Brady (11th)
The six quarterbacks that finished top-12 but were not drafted as a QB1 all had an ADP outside the top-14 quarterbacks. Furthermore, they were the QB21.5 in ADP on average.
Now let’s see which four quarterbacks with a RotoBaller ADP outside the top-12 could end the 2023 season as a QB1.
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (QB13)
While Kirk Cousins gets labeled a choker in the bright lights, the veteran quarterback is an underrated fantasy asset. Last year the former Michigan State star was the QB6, averaging 17.2 fantasy points per game. Furthermore, it was the third consecutive year the veteran finished as a top-12 quarterback.
More importantly, last season’s success wasn’t a fluke for Cousins. He has six top-11 finishes in his career, including three top-six finishes. Unfortunately, the veteran had 14 interceptions last season, a career-high. By comparison, he had seven or fewer interceptions in two of the past three years.
However, Cousins’ interception rate was under 2.3% last season, making it the fourth time over the past five years that the veteran quarterback had an interception rate under 2.3%. With an entire season of Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson, and Jordan Addison, no one should be surprised if Cousins has another top-five finish in 2023.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks (QB15)
There were many surprises last season. However, the top one was Geno Smith having a pro bowl caliber year. The veteran quarterback spent the past several years backing up Russell Wilson in Seattle and Philip Rivers in Los Angeles. While many expected him to lose his starting job to Drew Lock, Smith proved everyone wrong.
Last year the former West Virginia star was the QB5, averaging 17.9 fantasy points per game. The veteran had 30 passing touchdowns, nearly beating his career total entering the season (34). More importantly, Smith finished fourth in the NFL in passing touchdowns, only behind Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Joe Burrow. However, those three superstars have a significantly higher ADP than Smith.
Meanwhile, the Seahawks did everything possible to help the veteran succeed this season. Despite all the noise that the team would draft Smith’s replacement, Seattle didn’t select a quarterback during the 2023 NFL Draft. Instead, they used two top-52 picks on Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet. They join an explosive unit of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Kenneth Walker III. Smith has the weapons around him to repeat his top-five finish from last year.
Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets (QB16)
Everyone knew Aaron Rodgers would have a down year after the Green Bay Packers traded away Davante Adams. While they spent multiple draft picks at the wide receiver position, Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs weren’t going to replace the superstar wide receiver as a rookie. Therefore, it’s no surprise Rodgers had the worst year of his career as a starter in 2022, finishing the season as the QB13, averaging 14.1 fantasy points per game.
The veteran’s fantasy points per game average last year was nearly 20% lower than his previous career low as the starter in 2019. However, the lack of a superstar wide receiver wasn’t the only reason the future Hall of Famer struggled last year. Rodgers spent most of the season playing through a thumb injury on his throwing hand.
Despite the injury and inexperience receiver core, the superstar quarterback still finished seventh in the NFL with 26 passing touchdowns. More importantly, the future Hall of Famer has never finished lower than the QB9 any year of his career when playing at least 15 games before last season. Meanwhile, Rodgers has already developed an excellent connection with Garrett Wilson.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos (QB18)
Russell Wilson had high expectations last season following his trade from Seattle to Denver. All offseason, the fantasy football community saw numerous highlights on social media from the Broncos. Unfortunately, things didn’t go according to plan. The veteran quarterback averaged only 15 fantasy points per game and had 16 passing touchdowns, both career lows.
Instead of having the ninth top-12 finish of his career, Wilson was the QB16 in 2022. He finished with fewer total fantasy points than Lamar Jackson despite playing three more games than the Baltimore superstar. However, the veteran quarterback was much better to end the year. Over his final four games, Wilson averaged two passing touchdowns and 20.1 fantasy points per game, scoring 23 or more fantasy points in all but one matchup.
More importantly, the former superstar had arguably his two best performances after the team fired Nathaniel Hackett. Wilson had 505 passing yards and six total touchdowns in the two games without his former head coach. Reportedly, the veteran has lost weight this offseason and looks like his old self. While the Broncos have lost a few wide receivers to injury during training camp, they still have a talented unit. Meanwhile, Wilson has been outstanding in training camp connecting with his receivers.
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