X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

AL-Only Starting Pitchers: Late-Round Draft Fliers

Jamie Steed identifies late-round starting pitcher draft targets for AL-only leagues. These SP are deep sleepers worth targeting on draft day.

This year more than ever, starting pitchers are a sought-after position in fantasy drafts. Understandably, with uncertainty about innings limits in 2021, fantasy managers are keen to bolster their rotations with the defacto top-tier starting pitchers available.

As important as it is for your top starting pitchers to perform at an elite level, success in your league is regularly a result of those later-round picks who perform above expectations. You hear the phrase 'you can't win a league with your early draft picks, but you can lose it'. Whilst that's true, you can take a big step towards winning your league if you manage to unearth a hidden gem or two, especially a starting pitcher in the last few rounds of your AL-only draft.

Here, we take a look at some starting pitchers who could put up good enough numbers to warrant being a regular fixture in your starting lineups all season. All of whom have an overall ADP of 350 or greater in NFBC drafts and thus will be available in the later rounds of AL-only drafts.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Spencer Turnbull, Detroit Tigers

ADP: 368

Turnbull quietly put up solid numbers in the shortened 2020 season. In 11 starts (56.2 IP) he had a 4-4 record with a 3.97 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. He struck out 51 batters with a 21.1% strikeout rate (K%) but did walk 29 batters which lead to a career worse walk rate (12.0% BB%). He's been somewhat overshadowed by the young arms the Tigers have coming through their system, but actually did ok in his first full season in the Majors in 2019 as well.

Despite a 3-17 record in 2019, Turnbull threw 148.1 innings (30 starts) and put up a 4.61 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. The Tigers won't be competing for a postseason berth this year but have a better lineup on paper now so should ensure Turnbull gets enough wins to be relevant. The fact the Tigers let Turnbull pitch deeper into games (or what's considered deep now) bodes well in that regard, with eight of his 11 starts last year going five or more innings.

Turnbull lacks the upside of some starting pitchers taken at a similar ADP, but his groundball tendency (48.5% career GB%) helps set a pretty solid floor. Turnbull is unlikely to cause any harm to your team's ratios and given where he's being taken in drafts, should be a solid (if unspectacular) addition to fantasy rosters.

 

Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox

ADP: 373

The Chicago White Sox enter the 2021 season as favorites to win the AL Central, largely due to their offense. But they've put together an interesting starting rotation and Cease figures to be a key part of it. Cease made his Major League debut in 2019, making 14 starts (73 IP) and had an uninspiring 5.79 ERA and 1.55 WHIP. Cease's numbers were somewhat unlucky though as he had a 4.42 xFIP and 4.60 SIERA. The .326 BABIP and 21.4% HR/FB% also suggest Cease wasn't as bad as his ERA showed.

Last year, Cease started 12 games (58.1 IP) and had a 5-4 record with a 4.01 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. The two things that stand out for Cease is his fastball velocity which averaged 97.5 MPH last year (up from 96.5 MPH in 2019) which did reach 100 MPH and his worryingly high walk rate that also rose in 2020 to 13.3% (up from 10.7%). Of Cease's 12 starts last year, six saw him give up three or more walks and four of them had five or more walks.

If he manages to cut down the free passes and avoid the complete disaster starts where he walks five or more hitters, Cease should be able to go deeper and pick up plenty of wins behind the White Sox offense. If the control improves, we could see Cease emerge as the White Sox pitcher you want most on your fantasy rosters, especially in AL-only leagues.

 

J.A. Happ, Minnesota Twins

ADP: 398

While Cease may be the exciting young starter with plenty of upside, Happ is the veteran who is the perfect roster complement if you chased upside earlier in the draft. Often derided in the Bronx, Happ actually had a solid season in 2020. In nine starts (49.1 IP), Happ had a 2-2 record, a 3.47 ERA and 1.05 WHIP. That proved to be a nice bounceback from his 4.91 ERA in 2019 and showed the Twins enough to sign the 38-year-old to a one-year deal worth $8 million.

Happ's 2019 ERA was actually the first time since 2014 he put up an ERA north of 4.00, outlining his consistency. Given that Happ is a flyball pitcher (career 39.5% FB%) and has spent the last two and a half seasons pitching in Yankee Stadium during the "live ball" era, he's arguably outperformed expectations. With the belief among teams and players being that the ball to be used in 2021 won't be as hitter-friendly and the move to the more pitcher-friendly ballpark in Minnesota, which has ranked in the bottom half of home run factor in each of the last three years, Happ should be able to put up another season with an ERA below 4.00.

The Twins division is one of the pitcher-friendliest on paper this year and the Twins offense projects to be one of the best in baseball so Happ could easily put up numbers representative of a top-25 American League starting pitcher.

Year IP W-L ERA WHIP
2015 172.0 11-8 3.61 1.27
2016 195.0 20-4 3.18 1.17
2017 145.1 10-11 3.53 1.31
2018 177.2 17-6 3.65 1.13
2019 161.1 12-8 4.91 1.30
2020 49.1 2-2 3.47 1.05

 

Mike Foltynewicz, Texas Rangers

ADP: 646

Foltynewicz's 2020 was a disaster, but it's easy to forget as he only made one start. That one outing saw him give up six earned runs in 3.1 IP with four walks and three homers. The Braves released the 29-year-old righty but he was picked up by the Rangers and now has a chance to get his career back on track.

It was clear Foltynewicz wasn't his normal self during his start last year as his fastball averaged 90.9 MPH, down from 94.6 MPH in 2019 and 96.0 MPH in 2018. In his one Spring outings so far, his fastball is sitting around 95 MPH, which is a huge positive and could see him return to his 2018-19 numbers. In 2018, Foltynewicz had a 2.85 ERA over 183.0 IP before starting 2019 with shoulder issues and eventually being demoted to work through the problems. When he returned, Foltynewicz had a 2.65 ERA in the second half of the year in 57.2 IP.

Providing Foltynewicz maintains his velocity this spring, he could be the steal of the offseason for the Rangers and the steal of your fantasy drafts. The Rangers might have a so-so lineup but their new ballpark appears to be much more pitcher-friendly and could be the perfect place for Foltynewicz to reinvigorate himself.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3

Tyler Shough Could Come Off The Board Before Shedeur Sanders
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Isaiah Spiller

Raiders Waive Isaiah Spiller
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
NFL

Several Teams Trying To Trade Up Early In Round 2

Bhayshul Tuten Could Be A Third-Round Pick
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Cleveland Browns

Browns Fielding Calls For First Pick In Round 2
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
George Pickens

Steelers Receiving Calls About George Pickens
Moises Ballesteros

Riding An 11-Game Hit Streak
Victor Mesa Jr.

Starting Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Ryan Weathers

To Begin Rehab Assignment On Sunday
Colby Thomas

Heating Up At Triple-A
Dallas Cowboys

Cowboys Don't Feel Forced To Draft A Running Back
Emmanuel Rodriguez

Has Quiet Start To 2025
Jeff McNeil

Hitting Eighth In Season Debut
Brandon Sproat

Coughs Up Six Earned Runs In Latest Start
Eury Pérez

Eury Perez To Start Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Bailey Falter

Good To Go To Start On Sunday Against Dodgers
Will Levis

Could Be Traded Soon
Bryce Young

Wanted Panthers To Take Tetairoa McMillan
Travis Hunter

Jaguars Plan To Start Travis Hunter In The Receiver Room
Detroit Lions

Lions Pick Up Aidan Hutchinson's Fifth-Year Option
Jameson Williams

Lions Exercise Jameson Williams' Fifth-Year Option
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jameson Williams

Lions Didn't Entertain Trade Offers For Jameson Williams
Qadir Ismail

Raiders Sign Qadir Ismail
New York Giants

Giants Plan To Exercise Kayvon Thibodeaux's Fifth-Year Option
Russell Wilson

Will Be Giants Starting Quarterback
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Close Out The First Round With Josh Simmons
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Trade Up One Spot In First Round To Select Jihaad Campbell
Buffalo Bills

Bills Address Secondary And Take Maxwell Hairston With 30th Overall Pick
NFL

Eagles, Chiefs Swap First-Round Picks
Washington Commanders

Josh Conerly Jr. Goes At No. 29 Overall To Commanders
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF