RADIO
I am going to start this column by introducing the concept of ADP, which I'm pretty sure you know what it is about. Average Draft Position (ADP) indicates the average position where a player is drafted over more than one fantasy football draft. You can consider it as the price you have to pay to draft and get a player on your team. A high ADP (that is actually a low-numbered ADP) means that a player is getting off draft boards early, and thus you'll need to draft him in the first rounds if you truly want him.
Low or high ADP values are not gospel. Each of us fantasy GMs have our strategies and value players differently depending on what we think is the most important for them to have in terms of abilities. No matter what, ADPs are good to know how the "average value" of the "average GM" you'll be drafting against is for each asset (in this case, the players). By now, with free agency and the draft well finalized and just a few players left to be signed, it makes sense to go look at how ADPs are varying during the last month as we get closer to peak draft season.
In this series, I’ll highlight players at each skill position seeing significant fluctuation from late July to late August using data from FFPC drafts. Today, it's time to look at three running-back risers.
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Fantasy Football Running Backs - ADP Risers
Brian Robinson, Washington Commanders
Not only does rookie-rusher Brian Robinson has the largest ADP increase in the past month, but also one very reasonable considering the news coming out of Washington of late. Antonio Gibson can still be considered the franchise's RB1 though that might only last a few more weeks and Robinson takes on a commanding (no pun intended) role as soon as a few weeks of reps are under the freshman's belt.
Reports from the Commanders' camp in mid-August are talking about Gibson taking reps and practicing with the special teams of Washington. That might not mean a thing, or that might mean everything considering that Gibson had been getting third-string reps earlier this month. Robinson, on the other hand, has experienced (and forced, seemingly) quite the opposite trend going from a low-string player to a prominent one in the camps.
Keep in mind that Washington still has J.D. McKissic in tow and that he's a pass-play magician so the targets in such plays will probably come his way and not Robinson/Gibson's. Even then, PFF already projects Gibson and Robinson to 156 and 128 rushing attempts respectively with 34 and 23 targets going their way. But again, the interesting thing to note here is how Robinson's role seems to be growing by the day while Gibson's diminishes hourly.
Gibson's ADP of RB24 is a sunk cost as he projects to an RB31 finish while Robinson's RB51-to-RB36 projection would yield a massive ROI for the remainder of the summer draft season and into Week 1. Take advantage while the glitch lasts.
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
If you remember, Kenyan Drake broke his ankle last December and has been recovering since then. Drake, of course, is the RB2 of the Raiders behind RB1 Josh Jacobs in which a perfectly fine pair of rushers. But of course, Drake is coming off a broken ankle, let me repeat that, and the franchise had a crop of mediocre running backs that they bolstered with the addition of White with a fourth-round pick in the draft.
White's underlying numbers – as opposed to his NFL Combine stats – are definitely not encouraging at all. His draft age (22.6) is just in the 62nd percentile, and his breakout age and Dominator Rating aren't even into the 40th percentile. That, historically, has meant average-to-bad pro careers. It is what it is, but it is what a fourth-pick (contrary to a first-rounder or whatever) gets you.
Given the fact that Josh Robinson has been MIA and not showing at practices as recently as last week (he's been reportedly sidelined since Aug. 12), and that White is a player with a low floor but reasonable upside, fantasy GMs seem to be buying a bit more than it'd make sense at this point. I wouldn't advise chasing the rookie because he looks more like an ultra-flyer these days than anything else.
If you want to get an interesting dynasty player (still a what-if, though) you can go grab some shares. If you plan of managing a re-draft/season-long team, don't go crazy about White because it'd take injuries to Jacobs and/or Drake for him to break out and get a steady dose of weekly reps.
James Robinson, Jacksonville Jaguars
Robinson, same as Drake (read above), suffered a very serious injury in Week 16 of the 2021 season when he screwed his Achilles. Right at the end of July, though, it was reported that the rusher would open the training camp portion of the offseason outside of the PUP list, which was a massive victory for him and his prospective fantasy GMs.
Of course, what you know (because of this thing we call Novelty Bias) is that then-rookie Travis Etienne missed the whole year last season and is now entering his true debut campaign, so watch out for potential injury issues on that front because you never know. Anyway. Robinson was expected to come back at some point in August but he missed the first preseason game while still recovering and as I'm writing this it doesn't look like he will get any on-field time before Week 1.
The news came from HC Dough Pederson on Aug. 18 when he reported that the team expects Robinson to be ready and available for Week 1. Now, we'll see how that goes. Whether he's available or not, I'd still draft Robinson without much hesitation knowing there is some inherent risk baked into that pick because an Achilles injury, even in the year 2022 of our Lord, is still a very serious and worrying one.
Etienne looks like the Jaguars RB1 role but I'm still not entirely convinced about that really happening – let alone as the season progresses and Robinson proves to be at a 100 percent readiness. Yes, Etienne should get more targets over the year, but if you're looking for a pure rusher then I'm convinced PFF's projections are blatantly wrong in giving 211 totes to Etienne and 69 to Robinson. I'd bet on a much more balanced 160-140 if not a 140-160 in favor of Robinson.
I personally think that Etienne is a little bit overvalued these days without having proved a thing yet in the NFL compared to Robinson's top-7 and top-24 years among RBs in his two first pro seasons with the Jaguars. There's no point in risking as high as a third-round pick in Etienne with more solid/established options available that early. On the other hand, Robinson's 12th-or-later availability is looking more and more like a steal for any and every living GM out there. Get. Those. Shares.
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