Las Vegas Raiders Fantasy Football Team Preview - QB, RB, WR, TE Outlooks

Welcome to my 2024 fantasy football preview for the Las Vegas Raiders as part of my team-by-team fantasy football outlooks series. This new 32-part series will dissect each NFL team through a fantasy football lens. We'll look at each of the four primary positions -- quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end -- and identify each player's value at their current ADP. Through this series, we'll also recognize players fantasy managers should avoid and target at their current ADP.

The Raiders will introduce Antonio Pierce as their permanent head coach this season. As of right now, fantasy managers are not quite sure which quarterback will start under center. The debate between Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O'Connell will be big for fantasy managers. There's quite a bit of transition for the Raiders on the offensive side of the ball. They've also lost one of the faces of their franchise this offseason. Josh Jacobs is now a Green Bay Packer, and they'll be introducing Zamir White as the starting running back. We'll be talking about how all of these players will perform in fantasy football this season.

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• Quarterback fantasy football rankings
• Running back fantasy football rankings
• Wide receiver fantasy football rankings
• Tight end fantasy football rankings
• Kicker fantasy football rankings
• FLEX fantasy football rankings
• Defense (D/ST) fantasy football rankings
• Superflex fantasy football rankings
• IDP fantasy football rankings
• Dynasty fantasy football rankings

Fantasy Football Team Previews

Fantasy Football Quarterback Outlook

Gardner Minshew II: QB33, ADP 203
Aidan O'Connell: QB34, ADP 215

The obvious concern here is that we don’t have a good idea of who will be the starting quarterback in Week 1. A few weeks ago, DraftKings Sportsbook had Minshew as the favorite at -200 with O’Connell at +140. Those odds are very close, and head coach Antonio Pierce stated that O’Connell has earned the right to take first reps this summer. If I were a betting man, I’d take Minshew, but this quarterback competition is probably closer than we think.

Last year, O’Connell started 10 games and completed 61.5% of his passes for 2,143 yards. He finished with 11 touchdowns, six interceptions, and a 12.68 PPG average. He averaged 214.3 yards, 1.10 touchdowns, and 0.60 interceptions per game. Minshew started 13 games last season. He completed 60.9% of his passes for 2,979 yards, 14 touchdowns, and nine interceptions. He averaged 14.29 PPG, 229 yards, 1.07 touchdowns, and 0.69 interceptions per game. Minshew is a more mobile passer, finishing with 100 rushing yards and three touchdowns. O’Connell had 11 rushing yards and one touchdown. As you can see, the passing numbers are virtually the same.

Highest first-read throw rates on pressured dropbacks

Lawrence, Cousins, and Levis stubbornly locked on to their first reads. pic.twitter.com/qMjVa1rdGX

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) June 19, 2024

From the tweet above, whoever wins the starting quarterback job will be targeting Davante Adams an awful lot. That's a good thing for fantasy managers! Minshew and O'Connell are unlikely to be fantasy-relevant, but the hope is that they can elevate their skilled players enough. And the Raiders have got some legit offensive weaponry. Zamir White played well late last season in relief of Josh Jacobs. Davante Adams is one of the best receivers in the NFL. Jakobi Meyers is a quality and dependable No. 2. Tre Tucker and Michael Gallup are solid No. 3 and No. 4 receivers. Then there’s rookie phenom Brock Bowers and second-round tight end Michael Mayer. Whoever wins this job will get plenty of help from the players around him.

I expect whoever is under to center for the Raiders to be in the QB22-26 range most of the season, which gives fantasy managers a slight win against ADP, but it’s probably not going to move the needle much. In Superflex leagues, taking a dart throw on either player due to the cheap cost and hoping they’re the starter all year is fine. It’s certainly possible, however, to see both players under center at one time or another.

Verdict: Dart Throws on Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell (Fair Prices)

Fantasy Football Running Back Outlook

Zamir White: RB23, ADP 79
Alexander Mattison: RB67, ADP 211

While fantasy managers are writing off Josh Jacobs’ inefficient season due to not wanting to be in Las Vegas, the bad environment, and other factors, none of that affected White late in the season. Jacobs got hurt in Week 13 and missed the season's final weeks. However, in Weeks 1-12, Jacobs averaged 64 rushing yards per game with a 3.5 yards per carry (YPC) average. In the four weeks White started, he averaged 99 yards per game and had a 4.7 YPC average.

White had 84 carries, 397 yards, and one touchdown in those final four games. Those per-game averages would equate to 357 carries and 1,687 yards. We need to be cautious about the small sample size, but that’s largely there to show how well he played. White also chipped in with 13 targets, nine receptions, and 60 receiving yards. He averaged 14.1 half-PPR PPG during his four starts, which would have ranked ninth among running backs.

White averaged 2.64 yards after contact per attempt and had a broken tackle every 10.5 attempts. Those two numbers would have ranked second and 10th among running backs last year. White’s breakaway run rate (the number of carries that gained 10 or more yards) was 7.7%, which would have ranked in the top five among running backs.

Zamir White could be a trap.

Or he could be a league-winner.

Over the final 4 weeks of last season:

* 69% snap rate
* 21.0 carries and 3.3 targets per game
* RB8 in expected PPR PPG
* RB11 in actual PPR PPG

— Jared Smola (@SmolaDS) May 29, 2024

White appears to be the clear lead back in Las Vegas. The team opted to sign veteran Alexander Mattison and drafted pass-catching specialist Dylan Laube in the sixth round. Mattison was dreadful last season, leading to him losing his job as the Vikings starter to Ty Chandler. Mattison averaged 13.1 touches per game and finished just RB40 in PPR PPG. Mattison finished with the second-worst expected fantasy point differential, scoring 50.6 fewer points than expected.

Needless to say, Mattison shouldn't be viewed as a threat. Out of 42 running backs last season with at least 150 touches, Mattison finished 28th in yards per carry, 32nd in rush success rate, 26th in yards per reception, 42nd in receiving success rate, 39th in yards after the catch per reception, and 29th in yards after contact per rushing attempt. He also had the fourth-worst broken tackle rate.

From 2022-2023, Laube had 148 targets, 117 receptions, and 1,182 receiving yards in college. He could end up cutting into White's three-down workload and operate as the Raiders' primary pass-catching and third-down back. That would certainly hurt White's fantasy value, but it wouldn't stop him from being a solid bet to handle 250 touches and score 7+ touchdowns. I wouldn’t bother too much with Mattison or Laube. If White were to go down, we’d be looking at a 50/50 timeshare, in which both players would struggle to be anything more than a weekly RB3, at best.

White is more favorable in standard leagues and will lose value in any PPR setting because it’s unlikely he’ll be utilized much in that department. However, White is a good bet for 14-17 touches every game, and he’ll get almost all of the goal-line touches. With a limited pass-catching role, his upside is capped to some extent, but he’s ranked appropriately at RB23. After all, volume is king.

Verdict: Fair Price on Zamir White

Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Outlook

Davante Adams: WR9, ADP 15
Jakobi Meyers: WR53, ADP 122
Tre Tucker: WR122, ADP 307

Adams seems to have lost his shine without Aaron Rodgers and Derek Carr, but he’s still a certified baller. In 10 games with O’Connell under center last season, Adams averaged 13.0 half-PPR PPG. His expected half-PPR PPG was 15.9, which would have ranked fourth among receivers last season. In those 10 games, Adams had 110 targets, 64 receptions, 680 yards, and five touchdowns. It’s important to remember that included a midseason head coach firing and the fact that O’Connell was a fourth-round rookie.

Zay Flowers first-read target share

On all plays: 27.8% (24th)

Plays with pre-snap motion: 37.6% (9th) pic.twitter.com/HNGtdcITGp

— Fantasy Points Data (@FantasyPtsData) April 28, 2024

Adams has now posted four straight seasons with a 30% target share or higher, which is unheard of. Since he joined the Raiders two years ago, among receivers, Adams ranks first in targets, sixth in receptions, sixth in yards, and first in touchdowns. Pretty, pretty good and based on his first read target share from last year, evidenced above in the tweet, there’s no reason to expect any change.

Minshew played immensely better than Jimmy Garoppolo last season and second-year O’Connell should be much better than rookie O’Connell. One way or another, Adams will get better, possibly much better, quarterback play. The offense will not have to deal with a midseason firing and will have more consistency. All of that will help Adams realize more of his expected half-PPR average.

Davante Adams was the WR5 by expected fantasy points per game (17.8) last season – tied with Garrett Wilson

However, Adams only scored 12.6 FPG (WR17)

Adams and DeAndre Hopkins saw the most total uncatchable targets (41) followed by Wilson & Calvin Ridley (38) @FantasyPtsData pic.twitter.com/3NxwV6qQ1q

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) May 28, 2024

Any improvement Adams receives at the quarterback position will do wonders for his PPG average. You can see his expected PPG is still very much elite. Assuming O’Connell will be better than he was last year or that second-year O’Connell or Minshew will be better than Garoppolo is a fair assumption. The superior coaching will help, as well. Either way, Adams continues to have one of the most fantasy-friendly roles in the NFL and any improvement in who is passing him the ball will pay dividends.

Meyers has been in the league for five years. For the past three seasons, his targets per game have ranged from 6.63 to 7.41. His receptions per game have ranged from 4.44 to 4.88, and his yards per game have ranged from 50.4 to 57.4. It’s amazing how consistent he’s been across two teams, multiple coaches, and various quarterbacks.

Due to all of that, it’s safe to say that Meyers is who he is at this point. He’s a dependable No. 2 receiver. He’s never had 900 yards in a season, and now entering his age-28 season with Adams and Brock Bowers on the team, it would be unwise to expect that to change this year.

He finished as the WR42 (8.8 half-PPR PPG, WR42), WR28 (10.6 PPG, 2022), and WR25 (11.2 PPG, 2023). His current ADP and where he’s finished the last three years may seem shocking. However, Meyers is downgraded due to Bowers’ arrival and his nonexistent lack of upside.

Verdict: Fair Price on Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers (slight buy on Meyers)

Fantasy Football Tight End Outlook

Brock Bowers: TE11, ADP 101
Michael Mayer: TE32: ADP 218

Last year, the TE11 averaged 8.1 half-PPR PPG. In 2022, it was 7.8, and in 2021, it was 8.8. The average of those three years is 8.2. That gives us the kind of range Bowers needs to score at to make good on his current ADP. What could that look like? 8.3 half-PPR PPG could mean 97 targets, 70 receptions, 763 yards, and five touchdowns.

That seems like a stat line Bowers, given his talent profile, will be able to put up. However, it may be difficult for Bowers to outplay his current ADP significantly, given his teammates and team situation. Adams is a true alpha receiver and will continue to command a massive market share of the team’s passing volume. While Meyers may not be a stud, he’s a dependable veteran who isn’t just going to go away. That leaves Bowers constantly as either the No. 2 or No. 3 option on any given week in what is likely to be a below-average passing offense. That’s a tough place to make a living.

Bowers’ ADP isn’t as high, and there’s a decent chance he lives up to these realistic rookie expectations. However, there are likely other players at different positions in his draft area who have more upside. Truthfully, I’d rather pass on Bowers and take someone like Brian Thomas Jr. (WR48, ADP 105) and target Pat Freiermuth (TE16, ADP 134) in the later rounds. However, if you want to bet on Bowers’ insane talent profile and it is insane, it’s not a bad bet to make. The cost of acquisition is more than fair and there’s a chance Bowers could leap frog Meyers.

Verdict: Fair Price on Brock Bowers (slight sell on Bowers), Sell Michael Mayer

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