RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Draft target ~pick 170
CURRENT ADP: ~180 overall
ANALYSIS: Lars Nootbaar has been making himself quite the name in this year’s WBC. Mr. Japan has been batting .368/.500/.368 while making his pepper-grinding celebration a sensation across the world. While Nootbaar has made himself a surprise star at the WBC, it is likely just a preface to a rise to MLB superstardom in 2023.
In 2022, Nootbaar batted .228/.340/.448 with an OPS+ of 126. It was an up-and-down season, as he had two months above an OPS of .900, but also two months under .700 OPS. Nootbaar may look unreliable as a hitter, but a bad turn of luck in those two low-OPS months (BABIP under the Mendoza line in those two months) and an amazing set of hitting peripherals should ease concerns.
Nootbaar smacked the ball with an average exit velocity of 91.7 mph and a hard-hit rate of 46% in 2022. But he isn’t just a hard hitter; Nootbaar had a walk rate in the 98th percentile and a barrel rate of 12.1%. Those advanced numbers didn’t translate into counting stats because of the shift. Nootbaar was shifted on half his at-bats, with a .378 wOBA on non-shifts. With the shift gone, Nootbaar should see an increase in traditional statistics to the point of award contention.
While there is increased competition in the Cardinals’ outfield from Jordan Walker and Juan Yepez, Nootbaar is the least threatened. His defensive savviness and impressive offensive tools will keep him on the field. All signs point to a massive season for Lars Nootbaar.
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