RADIO
The Los Angeles Dodgers are off to their worst 40-game start in 60 years and fantasy owners are not happy. After last season’s demolition derby throughout the National League, most expected legitimate value out of their preseason Dodgers draft picks. Names like: Clayton Kershaw, Cody Bellinger, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, Kenley Jansen, Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, Chris Taylor and Rich Hill had been taken in or near the top 100 in plenty of leagues. Impressively enough, each and every single player on this list is either hurt or struggling to regain their 2017 form.
Yet, even knowing their recent history of early season slumps, it is difficult to find comfort during these past two trying months. For valid reasons, this year feels different, and there is legitimate cause for concern that they might not right the ship.
Are the Los Angeles Dodgers now a team to avoid in 2018 for fantasy baseball purposes?
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Offensive Issues
Recently, all-star shortstop Corey Seager was declared out for the season after Tommy John surgery, leaving a major hole in the top of the order. Unfortunately, his replacement Chris Taylor hasn’t been capable of stepping up as he did last year. Prior to last season, the former Mariner only had one home run in 317 plate appearances from 2014-2016. Granted, he hadn’t been a full-time player until 2017, but through some adjustments, his 21 HR and .850 on-base plus slugging percentage were a welcome sight to the Dodgers and fantasy owners. This season he is batting just .232 with a .718 OPS, both much much closer to his career averages before 2017. His power is still around as he has five HR thus far, but regression has hit his ratios hard.
Other issues in the lineup include, but are not limited to, Cody Bellinger coming back to Earth after his historic rookie season and Yasiel Puig forgetting how to hit altogether. With Puig and Bellinger, at least there is some expectation of positive regression to come eventually. Puig is a notoriously streaky player, so one would hope that he’s bound to get hot at some point as his AVG/OBP/OPS slash-line of .204/.252/.534 is well below his career norm. Bellinger is likely going through a bit of a sophomore slump as he has been figured out by teams for his love of chasing pitches, especially against left-handed pitching. This year, Bellinger is batting just .216 vs LHP and .297 vs. RHP. Consequently, major league managers are bombarding him with lefty relievers late in games, mitigating his effect on the offense. Nevertheless, baseball is a game of adjustments, and someone of Bellinger’s pedigree is more likely than not to figure it out in the near future.
The biggest glimmer of hope that fantasy Dodgers owners can hold on to is the fact that cleanup man Justin Turner returns this week. The question then becomes whether the offense’s collective struggles can be resolved with his return. Turner’s broken wrist was an absolute setback for the incumbent World Series runner-ups, and there is legitimate cause for concern about whether he will come back at even close to 100%.
Wrist injuries are known to be major power saps for players. There are such cases as Freddie Freeman in 2017 where he broke his wrist, came back later in the season and performed up to expectations. Then on the other side, there are cases like Mark Teixeira in 2014 and Mike Trout in 2015 where these players sustained wrist injuries and were not quite the same that particular season. Regardless of these incidences, all that matters for Turner is whether he’s been given ample time to recover. Turner should be given a month or so by fantasy owners to try and get back into form and hopefully juice the lineup. The Dodgers have been atrocious against LHP thus far and the return of Turner along with fellow infielder Logan Forsythe this week should fortify their platoon lineup. In a large enough sample size (over 100 at-bats), both of these righties crushed LHP in 2017 with Turner’s OPS at 1.181 and Forsythe’s at .870
It's Not Just the Hitting to Blame
The Dodgers starting pitching has struggled this season as well. More-so their issues have been a result of health rather than performance. Clayton Kershaw and Hyun-Jin Ryu are both on the Disabled List, with Kershaw expected back a lot sooner, and Rich Hill is yet again dealing with blisters. Starters are finding themselves in close games almost every night and bear the burden of knowing that allowing even two runs could cost them the game. A mental toll must be taken on Dodgers pitchers when they are forced tread so lightly through the order on a regular basis.
The silver lining for this rotation has been the emergence of top prospect Walker Buehler who has dazzled in his first season as a starter. Although he’s only appeared in four games this season, all against weaker opponents, Buehler has shown more than enough for fans and owners to believe that he might be the real deal. With a K/9 at 11 and a SIERA and xFIP both under three, his 1.54 ERA in 22 innings isn’t too far of an outlier from his actual performance.
The crux of the Dodgers pitching staff in 2018 has been the unreliable bullpen. Five of the Dodgers’ relievers with over 10 innings pitched have an ERA over five and two of their other prominent relievers have a WHIP over 1.50. Even their all-star closer, Kenley Jansen, found himself faltering early on in the season, but luckily he has found his form in more recent appearances. It could be assumed that the Dodgers pitching staff as a whole has taken a hit with not only the lack of offense but also the absence of the defense from key infielders like Turner and Forsythe. Their return might bolster the Dodgers on both ends of the field.
The question then remains; are the Dodgers sunk in 2018? That is still to be determined. It is mid-May and still way too early to tell. Maybe the return of Turner, Forsythe, and Kershaw ignite this roster onward to fantasy relevance. Maybe management decides to make a splash for a big name like Manny Machado to jumpstart the offense closer to the deadline. Maybe the organization decides to throw away 2018, call it a World Series hangover and make moves looking towards 2019 with a healthy Corey Seager. All Dodgers owners should be holding on for now. However, if it’s still ugly in a month or so, it might be time to jump ship and sell off the boys in blue.
