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Kyle Bishop's 10 Bold Predictions for 2020

Shohei Ohtani Batting

This will be my sixth season with RotoBaller, and consequently, my sixth time participating in this bold predictions series. Over that time, I've amassed a fairly strong record with bold predictions, generally clocking in with a success rate of 30 percent. I correctly predicted Bryce Harper's MVP campaign in 2015 and Kirby Yates leading the league in saves last season, and in between had a nice run in calling starting pitcher busts (Julio Teheran, Sonny Gray, and Aaron Sanchez in successive seasons).

I've also had my share of embarrassing misses, which is an occupational hazard in this line of work. After all, if you're not looking foolish on at least a few of these every year, are you really being B O L D? Still, were it possible to do so, I'd like to wipe from the record my doubts regarding Jose Altuve and Javier Baez, and the multiple times that I drank the Delino DeShields Kool-Aid.

But it's time to look forward, not backward; upward, not forward; and always twirling, twirling, twirling towards freedom.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and weekly lineup resources:

 

Bo Bichette outearns Fernando Tatis in 5x5

Tatis took the league by storm last year, hitting .317/.379/.590 with 22 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and elite run production in just 84 games before injury cut his season short. That performance has fantasy owners reaching for him in the front half of the second round, but there are plenty of reasons to expect regression in his sophomore season.

Bichette was pretty great as a rookie himself; in 46 games, he hit .311/.358/.571 with 11 homers and four steals in only 46 contests. He's projected to bat leadoff in a sneaky-good Blue Jays lineup and currently carries a nice ADP of 69, over 50 picks later than his fellow legacy phenom.

 

Dinelson Lamet finishes outside the top-75 starting pitchers

The hype for Lamet is out of control. The strikeouts are great, as is that wipeout slider. But the 27-year-old desperately needs an effective third pitch, because his fastball will continue to get absolutely clobbered otherwise. He gives up a ton of home runs and walks, has never pitched more than 153 innings in a season, and his career ratios (4.37 ERA/1.25 WHIP) are uninspiring even in the current environment.

Some folks look at Lamet and see a guy who can carry their fantasy rotation. I look at him and see a deeply flawed arm who may not even merit a roster spot in 12-teamers.

 

C.J. Cron puts up 35 HR and 100 RBI

Cron was well on his way to a career year before an injury torpedoed his second half. While he won't have nearly as dynamic a supporting cast as he did in Minnesota last season, the 30-year-old is slotted for cleanup duty with the Tigers. Even bad teams present plenty of opportunities to their middle of the order bats, which is part of why players on lousy rosters routinely turn a profit for fantasy owners who invest in them.

He's averaged 27 homers and 76 RBI in the last two years (his only seasons as a regular starter), so this prediction requires a significant step forward on his part. Good thing his barrel rate has improved in each of the last three years (up to 15 percent last year, seventh-best in baseball) and his expected slugging percentage in 2019 was 80 points higher than his actual mark.

 

Craig Kimbrel leads MLB in saves

On the one hand, it doesn't feel all that bold to predict that a guy who averaged over 40 saves per season from 2011-18 (and pretty much always posted microscopic ratios in the process) will lead the league in that particular statistic. On the other, Kimbrel was bad enough last year that he's been the 12th reliever off the board in drafts this spring despite that track record of success.

I'm willing to write off 2019 as just a weird and unlucky blip - juiced ball or no, Kimbrel isn't going to allow a home run on 36 percent of his fly balls again. He'll also have the benefit of a normal routine this time around, knowing where he'll be playing and going through a regular spring training, as opposed to having to twist in the wind until midseason like he did last year.

 

None of the four Astros being drafted in the top 50 returns top-50 value

That'd be Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, and George Springer. While I'm of the opinion that there is a sizable gap between the advantage the average fan believes sign-stealing confers and the impact it actually makes, that plays a role in the thinking behind this - not merely the disappearance of that edge, but the psychological toll of the scandal and its fallout. But there are other, more quantifiable reasons for concern on each player.

Bregman was among the hitters who benefited most from the juiced ball last season, per research by The Athletic's Owen Poindexter. Springer is likely to see plenty of regression in the power department himself. Meanwhile, Altuve just posted the worst in-zone contact and swinging strike rates of his career, and Alvarez is dealing with soreness in both knees this spring. All four players should still be productive, but they won't reach the same heights as they did in seasons past.

 

Dylan Carlson, Trent Grisham, and Franchy Cordero are top 50 outfielders

None of these guys are being selected in the top 80 at their position based on NFBC drafts over the last 30 days, and they have a grand total of 456 MLB plate appearances between them. But as prospects, all three displayed the sort of pop/speed combo that fantasy owners crave. Grisham and Cordero are both slated to open the season as starters in the revamped Padres outfield.

Carlson will have to work his way into a role, but the competition isn't exactly stiff - Tyler O'Neill's severe allergy to contact makes him especially vulnerable, and the strongest argument for continuing to roll with Dexter Fowler is how much they're paying him, not his actual talent at this point.

 

David Price and Corey Kluber are top-25 starting pitchers

Price's ratios took a hit last season, and he's averaged fewer than 120 innings in the last three campaigns. Still, seeing his ADP fall to 180 this spring just feels like an excellent buying opportunity. After all, he's only a year removed from posting 16 wins, rock-solid ratios (3.58/1.14) and a strikeout per inning, and despite his career-worst ratios last year, he actually had the highest strikeout rate of his career. The trade to Los Angeles is also a boon to his value in more ways than one.

He moves to a friendlier home park and division, gets to face pitchers instead of a DH, and many NL hitters will have had limited exposure to him in game action since he's been an AL lifer to this point. Kluber's still going inside the top 100 picks and is mainly included here to 1) make it clear that I'm betting on a rebound and 2) increase the degree of difficulty for hitting on this prediction.

 

Nick Madrigal leads MLB in stolen bases

As of this moment, Madrigal isn't even projected to break camp with the White Sox. Obviously, the bet here is that he seizes control of second base from Leury Garcia in short order and runs (no pun intended) with the job. The 23-year-old has no pop to speak of, but he does offer an extreme contact profile that allowed him to hit .311/.377/.414 across three levels last season.

Madrigal has made 705 plate appearances in the minors and gone down on strikes just 21 times. That level of contact ability should help him reach base often enough to stick in the lineup, and he ought to get the green light regularly.

 

Shohei Ohtani returns first-round value in daily leagues

Never before in the history of fantasy baseball have we been presented with a player like Ohtani - one who can potentially provide positive value in nine of the 10 standard categories. We got a glimpse of what that might look like in his first season, when he hit .285/.361/.564 with 22 homers, 10 stolen bases, and 120 R+BI in just 367 plate appearances and went 4-2 with a 3.31 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 63 strikeouts in 52 innings.

Now that he's fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, the stage is set for 450 plate appearances and 120 innings - and if he can produce on both sides of the ball like he has previously, the sky is the limit.

 

Peter Alonso hits fewer than 30 home runs

Here's where I would normally lay out some sort of statistical case or reasoned argument, but there really isn't one. Projection systems do see a fair amount of pullback for Alonso in his second season - after all, it's really difficult to maintain the kind of production he managed as a rookie - but all have him comfortably clearing 40 bombs anyway. Statcast absolutely loves the guy.

This is pretty much just placing trust in one of the precious few immutable laws of the universe: LOLMets. What could possibly be more apropos to this ancient ethos than their superstar slugger inexplicably seeing his HR total drop by ~50 percent?




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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Bradley Beal1 hour ago

Active On Wednesday
Baker Mayfield1 hour ago

Gets Tagged As DNP On Wednesday
Josh Giddey2 hours ago

To Play On Wednesday
Zach LaVine2 hours ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Dereck Lively II2 hours ago

Ruled Out For Wednesday
D'Angelo Russell2 hours ago

Austin Reaves Will Play Wednesday
Jose Alvarado2 hours ago

Jordan Hawkins Both Active On Wednesday
Chris Olave2 hours ago

Visiting With Specialists, Saints Not Rushing Him Back
Zion Williamson2 hours ago

Good To Go On Wednesday
Dallas Goedert2 hours ago

Practicing In Full On Wednesday
Anthony Davis3 hours ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski3 hours ago

Won't Play Against Boston
Christian McCaffrey3 hours ago

Pain-Free As He Returns To Limited Practice
Caris LeVert3 hours ago

Good To Go On Wednesday
LaMelo Ball3 hours ago

Will Play Against Detroit
Dak Prescott3 hours ago

Partially Tore Hamstring Off Bone
Shaedon Sharpe3 hours ago

Questionable For Thursday Night
David Roddy3 hours ago

Good To Go Versus New York
De'Andre Hunter3 hours ago

Still Out On Wednesday
DeVonta Smith4 hours ago

Does Not Practice Wednesday
Jaylen Brown4 hours ago

"Day-To-Day"
Trae Young4 hours ago

Cleared To Suit Up On Wednesday
Derek Forbort4 hours ago

Out Week-To-Week With A Knee Problem
Bryan Rust4 hours ago

Logs Full Practice On Wednesday
Kevin Hayes4 hours ago

Misses Practice With An Upper-Body Injury
Mason Marchment4 hours ago

Considered Day-To-Day
Matt Roy4 hours ago

Ready To Return On Wednesday
Connor McDavid4 hours ago

Returns To Action Wednesday
Justin Fields5 hours ago

Does Not Practice On Wednesday
Isiah Pacheco5 hours ago

Nearing Return To Practice
Patrick Mahomes5 hours ago

To Practice In Full On Wednesday
Brian Robinson Jr.5 hours ago

Will Practice On Wednesday
Isaiah Likely5 hours ago

Ruled Out For Week 10
Lamar Jackson5 hours ago

Off The Injury Report
Michael Pittman Jr.6 hours ago

Sidelined On Wednesday
Cedrick Wilson Jr.6 hours ago

Chris Olave, Cedrick Wilson Jr. Not Practicing On Wednesday
Tari Eason6 hours ago

Listed As Questionable With Illness On Wednesday
Dillon Brooks6 hours ago

Questionable Wednesday With Illness
Tee Higgins6 hours ago

Doubtful For Thursday Night Versus Ravens
Bryce Young6 hours ago

Will Start In Week 10
John Konchar6 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday Night, Will Miss Fourth Straight Game
Luke Kennard6 hours ago

Listed Questionable For Wednesday Night
Jordan Hawkins6 hours ago

Questionable For Wednesday Night Against Cleveland
Jonathon Brooks7 hours ago

To Be Activated, Week 10 Status Still Unclear
Dallas Goedert7 hours ago

Returns To Practice Ahead Of Cowboys Matchup
A.J. Brown7 hours ago

On The Practice Field To Begin Week 10 Prep
CeeDee Lamb7 hours ago

Expected To Be Limited On Wednesday
Nico Collins7 hours ago

Not Practicing On Wednesday, Could Return In Week 10
Royce Lewis8 hours ago

Might See More Time At Second Base
8 hours ago

Alex Bregman Has Bone Chip Removed From Elbow
9 hours ago

Angels Sign Kyle Hendricks
Max Greyserman9 hours ago

Earns Highest DraftKings Salary For WWT Championship
Harry Hall9 hours ago

In Solid Form Heading To Cabo
PGA9 hours ago

Matti Schmid On Fire Ahead Of WWT Championship
Jhonattan Vegas9 hours ago

A Safe Play At WWT Championship
Taylor Moore9 hours ago

Looks To Contend At WWT Championship
Patrick Fishburn9 hours ago

A Volatile Option At El Cardonal
Michael Kim9 hours ago

Aims For Back-To-Back Top-10 Finishes At WWT Championship
Charley Hoffman9 hours ago

Tough To Trust At WWT Championship
Adam Svensson10 hours ago

A Risky Play In Mexico
Daniel Berger11 hours ago

Looks To Keep Cuts-Made Streak Alive In Mexico
Tom Hoge12 hours ago

Hopes To Steady The Ship At World Wide Technology Championship
Travis Konecny14 hours ago

Tallies Four Points In Losing Effort
Nathan MacKinnon14 hours ago

Matches Franchise Record With Five Assists
Andrew Peeke14 hours ago

Sustains An Upper-Body Injury Tuesday
Anthony Mantha14 hours ago

Suffers A Lower-Body Injury
Cale Makar14 hours ago

Exits With Injury Versus Seattle
Dylan Holloway14 hours ago

Taken To Hospital After Being Hit By A Puck
San Diego Padres1 day ago

Padres Nearing Contract Extension With Manager Mike Shildt
Jazz Chisholm Jr.1 day ago

Could Be Moved Back To Second Base
1 day ago

Astros Have Had "Productive" Talks With Alex Bregman
1 day ago

Rangers Decline 2025 Option On Andrew Chafin
Camilo Doval1 day ago

Generating Interest
Shohei Ohtani1 day ago

Undergoes Arthroscopic Shoulder Surgery
Ronald Acuña Jr.1 day ago

Ronald Acuna Jr., Spencer Strider Not Expected To Be Ready By Opening Day
Bo Bichette1 day ago

Not On The Trade Block
Ryan Poehling1 day ago

Out On Tuesday
Alexander Romanov1 day ago

Remains Sidelined Tuesday
Artem Zub1 day ago

Remains Out On Tuesday
Ty Dellandrea1 day ago

Ready To Rejoin Action On Tuesday
Jake Walman1 day ago

Sits As Healthy Scratch On Tuesday
Brayden Point1 day ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Auston Matthews1 day ago

Out On Tuesday
Chandler Phillips1 day ago

Attempts To Keep Final-Round Form This Week
Brent Rooker1 day ago

A's Planning To Keep Brent Rooker
Neal Shipley1 day ago

Past Five Tournaments Make Him An Interesting DFS Option
Austin Eckroat1 day ago

Wants To Shake Off Some More Rust In Mexico
Rico Hoey1 day ago

Needs The Putter To Work In Mexico
J.J. Spaun1 day ago

Tries To Keep Second Half Rolling In Mexico
Sam Stevens1 day ago

Hopes To Continue Riding A Hot Putter In Mexico
Erik Van Rooyen1 day ago

Erik van Rooyen Tries To Defend WWT Title
1 day ago

Braves Interested In Nathan Eovaldi
Lucas Glover1 day ago

Well-Rested Heading Into WWT Championship
Ben Griffin1 day ago

Hopes To Continue Good Form In Mexico
Keith Mitchell1 day ago

An Unappealing Play At World Wide Technology Championship
Los Angeles Dodgers1 day ago

Dodgers Expected To Be Favorites To Land Roki Sasaki
1 day ago

Cardinals Don't Extend Qualifying Offer To Paul Goldschmidt
1 day ago

Reds Give Nick Martinez A Qualifying Offer
1 day ago

Christian Walker Receives Qualifying Offer From D-Backs
1 day ago

Dodgers Extend Qualifying Offer To Teoscar Hernandez
1 day ago

Willy Adames Receives Qualifying Offer From Brewers
1 day ago

Braves Give Max Fried A Qualifying Offer
1 day ago

Anthony Santander Receives Qualifying Offer
Artturi Lehkonen2 days ago

Will Make His Season Debut On Tuesday
Ilya Sorokin2 days ago

Takes On Penguins Tuesday
Ryan Blaney2 days ago

Wins At Martinsville And Has Chance To Earn Second Straight Championship
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Penalized At Martinsville, Removed From Championship Four
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Not A Factor At Martinsville And Looks Ahead To Phoenix
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Misses Advancing Through Playoffs Despite Top-Three Finish
Brad Keselowski2 days ago

Has A Solid Top-10 Performance At Martinsville
Chase Elliott2 days ago

Loses Out On Winning At Martinsville
Rose Namajunas2 days ago

Drops Decision Matchup
Erin Blanchfield3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Dustin Stoltzfus3 days ago

Gets First-Round Knockout At UFC Edmonton
Marc-Andre Barriault3 days ago

Knocked Out At UFC Edmonton
Trevin Giles3 days ago

Losses Third Fight In A Row
Mike Malott3 days ago

Wins Decision At UFC Edmonton
NASCAR3 days ago

Speeding Penalty Foils Martin Truex Jr.'s Last Realistic Shot At Winning
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Fails To Advance To Championship 4 But Runs Well
Shane Van Gisbergen3 days ago

Shane van Gisbergen Earns Best Oval Finish at Martinsville
William Byron3 days ago

Tentatively In Championship 4 Pending Ruling On Manufacturer Orders
MMA3 days ago

Ariane Lipski Submitted At UFC Edmonton
Jasmine Jasudavicius3 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC Edmonton
Caio Machado3 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
Brendson Ribeiro3 days ago

Edges Out Split Decision At UFC Edmonton
Amir Albazi3 days ago

Falls Short At UFC Edmonton
Brandon Moreno3 days ago

Dominates At UFC Edmonton
Daniel Suarez4 days ago

Will Start 20th At Martinsville
Zane Smith4 days ago

Might Be An Underrated Value Play For Martinsville
Tyler Reddick4 days ago

Is A Top DFS Recommendation For Martinsville Lineups
Joey Logano4 days ago

Will Be One To Watch At Martinsville
Brad Keselowski4 days ago

Should DFS Players Rely On Brad Keselowski For Martinsville Lineups?
Carson Hocevar4 days ago

Is A Great DFS Option For All Martinsville DFS Lineups
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Is Ty Gibbs Worth Rostering At Martinsville This Week For DFS?
Austin Cindric4 days ago

Could Have A Top-20 Performance At Martinsville
William Byron4 days ago

Might Be Usable Only In DFS Tournaments At Martinsville
Chris Buescher4 days ago

Should DFS Players Roster Chris Buescher At Martinsville?
Alex Bowman4 days ago

Expect A Solid Top-10 Performance From Alex Bowman At Martinsville
Rose Namajunas5 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Edmonton
Erin Blanchfield5 days ago

Returns At UFC Edmonton
Marc-Andre Barriault5 days ago

Dustin Stoltzfus Set To Face Marc-Andre Barriault At UFC Edmonton
Marc-Andre Barriault5 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Edmonton
Trevin Giles5 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
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Opens Up UFC Edmonton Main Card

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