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Welcome RotoBallers to our betting picks for the Miami Heat vs. New York Knicks, another article in our weekly series of free NBA betting picks for every game on the schedule. This free NBA betting breakdown article is for Sunday, April 30th.
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Today's Betting Overview - Heat @ Knicks
The Heat take on the Knicks on Sunday, April 30th at Madison Square Garden, New York. RotoBaller provides free handicapping picks and odds for all NBA games throughout the 2022-2023 season.
- Matchup: Miami Heat (44-38) vs. New York Knicks (47-35)
- Date: Sunday, April 30th
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- Venue: Madison Square Garden
Today's NBA Sportsbook Odds - Heat @ Knicks
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Heat & Knicks Key Injuries
Heat
- Victor Oladipo (Out) Knee
- Bam Adebayo (Probable) Hamstring
- Tyler Herro (Out) Hand
Knicks
- Julius Randle (Questionable) Ankle
- Quentin Grimes (Questionable) Shoulder
- Jericho Sims (Out) Shoulder
Miami Heat - NBA Betting Analysis
After taking down the Bucks by a score of 128-126, the Heat are riding a three game win streak. Jimmy Butler led the way in scoring with 42 points. Miami was the 13.0 point underdog heading into the game, giving them an ATS win.
With the win, the team has moved to 44-38, placing them 8th in the Eastern Conference. So far this season, they have gone 27-14 at home and 17-24 on the road. Even though the Heat have rattled off three straight wins against the spread, their overall ATS record is 36-51.
Through 89 games, the Heat have put together one of the top scoring offenses (7th) at 109.5 points per game. Not only that, but they enter today's game averaging 124 points per game over their last five games. A key to the team's offensive success is their ability to push the pace while not sacrificing efficiency. This year, the Heat are 7th in possessions per game, while also hitting 34.4% of their three-point field goal attempts. Currently, Miami's overall effective field goal percentage of 53.0% is 4th in the NBA.
This season, the Heat have allowed an average of 105.6 points per game, good for 3rd in the league. In terms of three-point shooting, opponents have knocked down 34.0% of their looks from beyond the arc (21st) and 44.8% of their overall field goal attempts. Miami's overall defensive numbers have been good despite the units struggles on the glass, sitting just 16th in defensive rebounds per game. The Heat are also a below average group in forced turnovers, at just 12.8 per game.
New York Knicks - NBA Betting Analysis
After taking down the Cavaliers by a score of 106-95, the Knicks are riding a three game win streak. Jalen Brunson led the way in scoring with 23 points. New York was the 5.5 point underdog heading into the game, giving them an ATS win.
With the win, the team has moved to 47-35, placing them 5th in the Eastern Conference. So far this season, they have gone 23-18 at home and 24-17 on the road. The Knicks have a 3 game win streak against the spread and have an overall ATS mark of 49-36.
Currently, the Knicks are ranked 17th among all NBA teams with an average of 116.0 points per game. However, if their recent performance is any indication, they may drop in the rankings soon. Over their last five games, they have averaged just 99 points per contest. The Knicks have struggled with three-point shooting, making only 35.4% of their attempts, placing them just 29th in the league. Their overall field goal percentage enters as 47.0% (5th). Additionally, the team's pace of play is slower than the league average, at 97.7 possessions per game, placing them 35th. In terms of getting to the line, the Knicks are 28th in attempts and 6th in free-throw shooting percentage.
This season, New York has put together a strong defensive unit, allowing just 105.6 points per game (3rd). But despite their strong overall numbers, they have been vulnerable on the glass, sitting just 16th in defensive rebounds per game. Yet, the Knicks have been excellent at forcing turnovers, averaging 12.0 per game, placing them 9th in the NBA. For the season, they have allowed teams to hit 34.0% of their three-point shots and 44.8% of their overall shots from the field.
Today's NBA Betting Pick - Heat vs. Knicks
The Knicks currently have the leg up in this year's season series against the Heat. Across four games, the Knicks have a record of 3-1. In the last head-to-head matchup, the Knicks were favored by 6.0 points. Even though they won straight up by a score of 101-92, they did not cover the spread. The combined 193 points failed to exceed the over/under line of 225.0.
In the Heat's previous five games as the favorite, they have a straight up record of 4-1 while going 4-1 against the spread. Across their last three road games, they are 2-1 ATS and 2-1 straight up. Their previous ten games have an over/under mark of 8-2 with an average of 230 points per contest.
Across New York's last five games at home, they have an ATS mark of 3-1-1 while going 3-2 straight-up. As the favorite, the Knicks are 2-1 straight up on an average scoring differential of 0 points per game. This has led to an ATS mark of 2-1. Their previous ten games have ended in an average of 223 points per game and an over/under mark of 4-6.
Recommended ATS Betting Pick: MIA +4.5
Recommended OU Betting Pick: Under 207.5
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