Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Fantasy Football Week 16 Include Justin Fields, Brock Purdy, Taysom Hill

Every week, I share some of my favored players to go with when dealing with challenging lineup decisions. These choices are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a discount and get access to my ranks in all formats, plus a full roster of tools and analysis for the 2022 fantasy football playoffs.

We feature players that you should lean to in tough calls, and guys who may exceed expectations this week are also highlighted, so you can feel even more confident about starting them. Skill position analysis here is based on my PPR rankings. When considering each player for your lineup, check my rankings to see exactly where they are positioned when compared to your other possible lineup choices.

Scott Engel was the No. 2 overall fantasy football accuracy ranker on fantasypros.com in Week 9. He finished as the No. 8 ranker for QBs and No. 3 for defenses in Week 13. 

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Quarterbacks – Fantasy Football Week 16

Justin Fields

The weather forecast in Chicago is causing many fantasy players to naturally question if they should start Fields in an important fantasy playoff game. I still have Fields ranked as my QB7 overall. I will not recommend benching him for a lesser fantasy QB who is playing in better conditions.

We have been locking Fields into fantasy lineups every week because of his rushing prowess. The weather is going to force the Bears to mainly run the ball, which is what they do anyway. You will still get a good statistical floor from the Chicago QB.

The Bears have the No. 1 rushing offense in the NFL and the worst passing offense in the league, so their offensive approach is not going to change much because of the conditions.  The weather can dampen the passing outlook, which is never bright for Chicago, anyhow.

Buffalo has the No. 6 rushing defense in the NFL, but defenses don’t always win the matchup, and Fields has been too good this season to bench him when your season is on the line. The best players get their numbers in all types of matchups, and Fields is not going to deliver a dud in Week 16.

Fields is just the third QB ever to rush for 1,000 yards in a season. He has rushed for 50-plus yards in eight consecutive games, one short of tying the NFL record for a QB.

Brock Purdy

He has been a great story, and it will only get better if the 49ers make a deep playoff run with Purdy at QB. He has passed for two TDs in each of the three games where he has been the main QB or starter for the 49ers. But Purdy is a better real-life headline-maker, and the excitement does not fully translate to fantasy football.

Purdy has not passed for more than 217 yards so far, and the Week 16 matchup with the Commanders doesn’t point to any more statistical production than what we have seen so far. Washington ranks sixth in Fantasy Points Per Game allowed to QBs over the past four weeks.

Purdy is also in danger of getting exposed as a pro QB as his opponents progressively dissect him more on film. Purdy may be among the best of desperation options this week, but he barely ranks above the No. 20 spot in my QB rankings.

Running Backs – Fantasy Football Week 16

Raheem Mostert

Mostert had a regular season career-high 156 scrimmage yards (136 rushing) last week, his fourth career game with 150+ scrimmage yards and his first since 2020. He is aiming for his third game in a row at home with 85+ scrimmage yards and a TD. Mostert needs 108 scrimmage yards for his first career 1,000-yard season.

In a very favorable matchup with Green Bay, Mostert should still be the lead ball carrier for Miami. Last week, the Dolphins’ offense got back on track by running the ball more consistently early on, and the plan worked. A sturdy running game helps make the Miami RPO attack more effective.

The Packers rank 29th in rushing yards allowed to RBs, and Mostert is a must-start back-end fantasy RB1 this week.

Isiah Pacheco

Jerick McKinnon has overshadowed Pacheco in the last two games, but the matchup and possibly the weather indicate Pacheco may be the better play of the two in Week 16. The Seahawks have the lowest-ranked run defense in the NFC, and they have allowed an NFL-high seven rushing TDs over the past four weeks. As a pure lead ball carrier, Pacheco is best suited to attack the Seattle defense.

When you need 10 yards to win the game and some fools get in your way before you get 10 yards.

Isiah Pacheco >>> pic.twitter.com/X1luMxKCUm

— Seth Keysor (@RealMNchiefsfan) December 14, 2022

The Chiefs will still throw the ball enough, as the wind is not expected to have a major impact on this game, but we may see more carries from Pacheco this week as the run game is incorporated a bit more. He is aiming for his seventh game in a row with 80+ scrimmage yards. Pacheco is a strong fantasy RB2 play for Week 16.

Joe Mixon

Over the past two games since returning from a concussion, Mixon has not been awful, but he has not displayed any upside, either. He has scored 12.6 and 10.4 PPR points in those two games, finishing as RB16 in Week 14 and RB32 in Week 15. Mixon just hasn’t been good enough to be an integral part of a fantasy playoff push in the last two games.

This week, Mixon faces the Patriots, who rank eighth in Fantasy Points Per Game allowed to RBs. I have Mixon ranked as my No. 19 RB this week. You can still get a satisfactory statistical floor from Mixon, and he has been targeted as a receiver six-plus times in three of his past five games.

You have to see Mixon as a complement to your best players right now, and an upside performance would be a pleasant surprise. It is hard to sit Mixon because of his history of production, so if you view him as an RB2 type he can be started more comfortably.

Jamaal Williams

Williams leads the NFL with a career-high 14 rushing TDs in 2022. He has four rushing TDs in his past three games on the road, and Williams has 50+ scrimmage yards in five of his six road games in 2022. But in his last two games, Williams has not rushed for a TD or cracked the 40-yard mark in rushing yards.

Carolina has allowed 11 rushing TDs to RBs, which is tied for 21st in the NFL, so Williams has a good shot to get back into the end zone this week. Detroit has also been employing a full-on committee approach at RB, so Williams has become a pure TD or bust play. He is a viable flex option, though, because I do expect the Lions to move the ball well and get within short scoring range for Williams.

Wide Receivers – Fantasy Football Week 16

DeVonta Smith

Even with Gardner Minshew at QB for the Eagles, I am still liking Smith as a strong fantasy WR3 play. Smith worked with Minshew in two games last season, so they should have a comfort level together. Last week, we saw a No. 2 WR burn Dalllas, as Zay Jones had 109 yards and three TDs on six receptions.

While Trevon Diggs will be matched up with A.J. Brown often, Smith will challenge the other Dallas CBs, as the position has been thinned by injuries. Smith had a TD catch in his Week 6 matchup with the Cowboys.

D.J. Moore

After getting shut out in Week 14, Moore rebounded in Week 15. He had five catches for 73 yards and he registered his career-high fifth receiving TD. Moore has a TD catch in three of his past four games at home. The Lions have been one of the hottest teams in the league, but they still allow the second-most FFPG to WRs. Lock in Moore as a fantasy WR3 this week.

K.J. Osborn

The Minnesota wideout exploded in a career performance last week, catching 10 passes for 157 yards and a TD, But he still appears to be a boom or bust play, as Osborn had one game of 70-plus yards this season prior to last week.

Darnay Holmes is the Giants slot corner.

He ranks 120th in total coverage & last in slot coverage.

Holmes faces KJ Osborn next.

Osborn has ran the 5th most slot snaps this year.

— SAL VETRI (@SalVetriDFS) December 23, 2022

I do believe that such a great outing though, can lead to frequent targets against a Giants pass defense that ranks 26th in FFPG allowed to WRs over the past four weeks. I am good with using Osborn as a flex option in Week 16, believing he won’t flame out after one impressive outing.

Romeo Doubs

In his return from an ankle injury last week, Doubs led the Packers with five receptions, catching all of his targets with a long reception of 23 yards. He is a sneaky flex start in the game with the highest projected total on the board this week (50 points). Doubs has upside as Aaron Rodgers will have to throw often to stay in the game with the Miami offense.

Tight Ends – Fantasy Football Week 16

Taysom Hill

Published reports are indicating that Hill could be a bigger part of the game plan for the Saints in Week 16, as highly adverse weather conditions will make him a more important option for the New Orleans offense. If you can play Hill at TE, I would only start Travis Kelce,  T.J. Hockenson, Dallas Goedert and George Kittle over him.

Hill has totaled 23.5 total points in his past two games and he has the potential for more production as a versatile offensive threat. Cleveland’s rush defense ranks 24th in the league.

Noah Fant

Fant has a TD reception in two of his past three games. He also has 5+ targets in each of those games. Fant should see an increased role as a chain-moving option for Geno Smith with Tyler Lockett out this week. I am considering him a back-end fantasy TE1 for Week 16.

Scott Engel's fantasy and betting analysis is also featured at The Game Day.

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