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Kevin McGonigle's fantasy baseball prospect outlook, sleeper potential for dynasty leagues. Matt uses his custom suite of fundamentals-rooted evaluation tools.
From August through September of 2022, I watched Tigers middle infield prospect Kevin McGonigle play over a dozen games when I attended the USA Baseball 18 Under (18U) National Team Camp through completion of the WBSC (World Baseball and Softball Confederation) 18U Baseball World Cup at various MLB complex sites along the central to southern Gulf coast of Florida.
After retelling what I saw then ahead of his 2023 senior and MLB Draft season, I will share what the FaBIO plate profile and Offensive Running Rating models have to say about the pro today.
Here is the dynasty prospect outlook for McGonigle of the Tigers.
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August Through September 2022 Live Looks
At the plate, a shorter, stockier McGonigle seldom whiffed. He hit many line drives, flashed over-the-fence pull power to right field with else warning track power to center field and left field, and hit a few tweener pop-ups versus flyballs into the third base-shortstop-left field triangle. His best plate work came in the first half of the month spent in Florida as the bat cooled over the final week of tournament games.
McGonigle had seized the everyday second base job to begin exhibition friendlies that followed final camp cuts and held that spot through tourney completion. He played a flashier second base with good hands and quick feet, which seemed a reflection of the fact that he had mostly played shortstop before attending the precursor USA Baseball events of this series.
Brief Explanation of the FaBIO Model
My Fielding- and Ballpark-Independent Outcomes (FaBIO) evaluation model sorts every plate appearance into one of 12 outcome bins (BB+HBP, K, IFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Center-Third OFFB, Oppo-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, Center-Third LD, Oppo-Third LD, Pull-Third GB, Center-Third GB, Oppo-Third GB) and charges the pitcher and batter with their league's mean runs value for said particular event that season.
Dividing a batter's total number of expected runs by plate appearance (PA) yields expected runs per PA that can be percentile ranked relative to the league mean and standard deviation for that parameter amongst league batter qualifiers to arrive at their Overall Rating.
Its three subcomponents of BB+HBP Rating (based on BB+HBP per PA), Strikeout Avoid Rating (K Avoid, based on K per PA), and Batted Ball Profile Rating (expected runs per batted ball) are also reported to identify the path the batter traveled to reach their Overall Rating.
Overall Rating and Batted Ball Profile Rating of batters should be considered power- and speed-neutralized metrics since the real-world runs value of a single batter's typical OFFB or LD varies with their strength, and the expected runs value of their typical GB varies with their speed.
To better understand the Path to Batted Ball Profile, we will also examine percentile ratings for select batted ball event types (on a per-batted ball basis). To check how well expected batted ball outcomes match real-world ones, we will compute percentile ratings for hits (AVG) and isolated power (ISO, or simply extra bases) on batted balls (recognizing full well that these two parameters are neither fielding- nor ballpark-independent outcomes).
What most explains a batter's ability to generate hits (AVG) on batted balls is any LD, IFFB avoidance, Pull-Third OFFB, and Pull-Third GB avoidance. What most explains their ability to generate extra bases (ISO) on batted balls is any OFFB, Pull-Third OFFB, Pull-Third LD, and IFFB avoidance.
A percentile rating of 97 amounts to plus-plus (two standard deviations above the mean), 84 is plus (one standard deviation above the mean), 69 is half plus, 50 is average, 31 is half minus, 16 is minus, and three is minus-minus.
A new addition to this suite of evaluation models is the Offensive Running Rating. This tool quantifies how each relevant inning's run expectancy was impacted by the player's action or inaction as either a batter or baserunner on very specific types of plays that are more likely to involve one or both of their speed or offensive running technique, plus acumen.
The evaluated batter and baserunner events are summarized in the graphic.
Prospect Analysis: Kevin McGonigle
Evolution of Pro Plate Profile
LSU teammates Paul Skenes and Dylan Crews had their names called in the first two picks of the 2023 MLB Draft with nearer-slot signing bonuses in place. Such left the Detroit Tigers with maximum bonus pool leverage and two clearer moves to decide between at pick three. One was to bid up some's top college position player of class Wyatt Langford still more beyond what the bonus-pool-limited Rangers already had, assuming Langford had not already chosen to only sign with Texas. Option two was to underslot a preferred high schooler and use the pocketed bonus pool savings to steer a second favorite prep down to a later pick slot with a larger bonus offer that only a few clubs could top before that turn came up.
Tigers chose the latter option, with McGonigle receiving an overslot bonus of $2.85 million as the back end of the two-prep parlay at overall pick 37, after Max Clark nobly played the underslot front man role at pick three.
McGonigle would first log 45 PA with the rookie Florida Complex League affiliate before another 62 with the Low-A full-season affiliate without having to depart Lakeland. He impressively posted a pair of 100 Overalls with not quite double plus K Avoids. BB+HBP beat K Avoid while with the R club, as did Batted Ball Profile while with the A squad. Over the full debut, McGonigle was one percentile point from rating plus or better at each of BB+HBP, K Avoid, and Batted Ball Profile.
Adding more LD and IFFB Avoid to the batted ball profile enabled more AVG in A versus the R stop. OFFB contact also flipped from very late in R (12 Pull OFFB <<< 90 OFFB) to early in A (57 Pull OFFB >> 27 OFFB) as the new pro acclimated to pro-caliber fastball velocity. However, McGonigle stayed under plus at ISO (extra bases generation) per batted ball. With each club, the LHB who seldom struck out was more prone to K against opposite-handed pitchers than against same-handed pitchers.
The weakness spotted in the full 2023 line involves that each of AVG and ISO was shy of what the typical MiLB batter would produce with comparable Path to Batted Ball Profile elements. McGonigle was short on some mix of strength, barrel sense, backspin, etc., that was needed to produce hits and extra bases at a clip more in line with his batted ball profile fundamentals.
McGonigle returned to the A affiliate to open 2024 and turned in another 268 PA before joining the High-A club in Michigan, where his year would end on August 10 by way of a wrist hamate bone injury. Remarkably, McGonigle had again turned in another pair of 100 Overalls with K Avoid improving still more versus 2023.
ISO production increased with each club versus 2023 marks, but that was due to increased OFFB and Pull OFFB frequencies rather than fully translating OFFB and Pull OFFB into ISO. The 57 PA in A+ had McGonigle very short on converting LD and Pull OFFB into hits per a 0 AVG on Batted Balls rating.
By the end of the second pro season, McGonigle had turned in the best plate trips over the last two seasons of any minor league player per exclusively 100 Overall profiles. All that barred him from No. 1 prospect in baseball discussion was being short on plate physicality per AVG and ISO. The deficit was expected to carry over into early 2025 as he recovered from the hamate procedure.
McGonigle received 13 PA in the 2025 MLB spring games. He tallied plenty a BB+HBP but struck out relatively often for the first time as a pro. A GB + Pull OFFB (one cleared RF wall off an Aaron Nola offering) batted ball profile mix yielded impressive 100 AVG and 100 ISO Ratings on Batted Balls, teasing that improved plate physicality may be coming earlier in 2025 MiLB play than forecast.
Evolution of Pro Offensive Running
The 5-foot-10, 187-pounder improved from eight steals in 13 tries during 2023 to 22 steals in 24 tries during 2024. But how well did McGonigle profile as an offensive runner per the Offensive Running Rating (ORR) model?
McGonigle has not rated well as an offensive runner since graduating the rookie complex squad. Even while stealing 20 bags in 22 tries with the 2024 A club, McGonigle rated nearer half minus than average as Baserunner.
Though a mix of size and speed limitations would prevent registering high-end sprint speeds, McGonigle would ideally move to the high side of average as an offensive runner per how often he stands to reach base between plus-caliber hit fundamentals and half to perhaps full plus BB+HBP projections.
Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Focus
A non-severe ankle sprain endured during a two-doubles High A Game 1 2025 debut has momentarily derailed a fairly surer ascension of McGonigle up Top MLB Prospects charts.
The key focus areas for pro development between now and a likely not-so-far-away MLB debut would be more physically impacting the baseball with the bat barrel and evolving into a better offensive runner.
With not all precincts reporting, present offensive fantasy forecast would be a plus hit, average perhaps half plus power, half to full plus walks and hit by pitches, double plus strikeout avoidance batter with average offensive running outcomes.
McGonigle played a much cleaner shortstop than in 2023 while unevenly splitting time between mostly shortstop and second base with the 2024 A affiliate. While such extends him more development rope at the six spot ahead, he remains likelier to debut in MLB as a defensively above-average second baseman.
My crystal ball forecasts that, barring still more physical setbacks, McGonigle could occupy a near-everyday lineup spot on a could-be 2025 MLB Tigers postseason roster. The MLB club today seems likelier to be in need of better plate appearance takers come then while mostly facing their opponent's top arms. Such would obviously require McGonigle to first pass a final month MLB audition in the Tigers lineup.
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