X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Kevin Gausman to Blue Jays - Fantasy Baseball Impact Analysis

The Toronto Blue Jays scored the third-most runs in Major League Baseball in 2021 while leading the league in home runs by a huge margin. Despite the clear successes on offense and finishing 20 games above the .500 mark, the Jays missed the playoffs after landing fourth in their division.

The main reason this team fell short of the postseason was the strength of the American League East. Four teams in the division won more than 90 games, with the Rays eclipsing a 100-win season. The secondary reason was the starting pitching staff, which just could not do enough to quiet the brutal offenses they faced for most of the season. The Blue Jays' team ERA finished at 3.91, which placed 10th-best in the league. That's a pretty impressive number given the tough schedule those pitchers faced, but if there was any place for improvement on this team, it was the pitching staff.

Toronto took an aggressive step to improve their starting pitching staff by inking Kevin Gausman to a five-year deal worth $110 million. In this post, we'll quickly review Gausman's 2021 season and then talk in some depth about the fantasy implications of his move north of the border.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

Gausman's Career Year

Everything went right for Gausman in his first (and last) full season with the Giants. He made 33 starts (an impressive feat in itself) and posted a 2.81 ERA. That strong ERA was backed by a very strong 29% strikeout rate and an elite 6.5% walk rate. Opponents hit just .208 against him, resulting in one of the league's best WHIP marks of 1.04. Only eight pitchers in the league that made 25 or more starts posted a better ERA than Gausman, and only nine bested him in WHIP. He was a top-10 starter in the league any way you slice it.

The recipe for Gausman's success was fastball location and a devastating splitter.

Anything clearing a 30% CSW% is a great result, and you see Gausman getting there on three of his four offerings. It's not an overpowering fastball, but averaging 95 miles per hour is more than enough when you can spot it the way Gausman did. He got ahead with that pitch, mixed in some slow and breaking stuff, and really wiped hitters out with the splitter that posted one of the best swinging-strike rates in the league at 24.8%.

So we're looking at a guy that will be 31 years old (a perfectly fine age considering today's starting pitching landscape) on Opening Day coming off of a 33 start year with sparkling numbers that are backed up by a great strikeout-to-walk ratio. What could possibly go wrong?

 

Strength of Schedule Impact

I took an in-depth, and I might even say unmatched, look at 2021 strength of schedule for pitchers earlier this offseason. You can find that analysis here. I'll share again the division summaries in terms of strength of schedule for each division's pitchers.

You can see that the NL West tied for the easiest schedules faced. That division had two and a half really good offenses (the Dodgers, Giants, and Rockies in Coors), a pretty middling unit (Padres), and then 1.5 truly awful offensive teams (Diamondbacks and Rockies on the road). Since Gausman was a Giant, he didn't face the Giants, making it a pretty good division to pitch in. Here is how Gausman's innings broke down by opponent faced.

A total of 49 innings against the Padres and Dodgers is no walk-in-the-park, but you can see how many innings he ran up against some pretty anemic offenses. He threw more than 62 innings against the likes of the Diamondbacks, Cubs, Rockies, and Pirates. Getting to face those teams in 2021 was a huge boon to his statistics, and Gausman took advantage allowing just 18 earned runs in those 62.1 innings (a 2.60 ERA). To his credit, he fared just fine against the Dodgers (3.21 ERA in 14 innings) and Padres (3.09 ERA in 35 innings) as well, so this isn't a guy who got to his strong line just by exploiting weaker competition.

Getting back to the strength of schedule table, you can see that Gausman will move into what was the toughest division to pitch in last year. The average hitter that an AL East pitcher faced had a slugging percentage of .422 in 2021, far ahead of the .408 a pitcher would face in the NL West.

To get a better idea of what a Blue Jays pitcher will have to face over 162 games, let's look at the opponent breakdown for Robbie Ray last year, who spent the entire year in a Toronto uniform and threw 193.1 innings with the team.


Ray's schedule was probably harder than you'd expect, with 39 innings against the Rays and only 16 against the Orioles (you would expect these numbers to be pretty similar as they are both division opponents), but you can really see the gauntlet that these Blue Jays pitchers can be put through. The Rays did not score an overwhelming number of runs, but they are a tough team to pitch against. Then you have the Red Sox and Yankees near the top there, and those offenses are just loaded with elite hitting.

All of this is not to specifically mention the DH. Gausman made just three of his 33 starts in American League parks, meaning 91% of the time he avoided the DH. In Robbie Ray's case, he faced a lineup with a DH in it 94% of the time (making just two starts in NL parks). That doesn't make a massive difference over the long haul, but it's not insignificant either.

 

Ballpark Impact

Rogers Centre has long been one of the more hitter-friendly ballparks in the league. They did not play a full season there in 2021, with COVID issues forcing the Blue Jays to play the early months of the season in Florida and New York, but when all was said and done the run-factor for the Rogers Centre came in at 1.131 (courtesy of ESPN's park factors). That means that the park led to a 13% increase in runs over expectation (and this does control for the skill of the hitters that actually played in those games). The ballpark Gausman is leaving, AT&T Park, came in around the middle of the pack at 0.975, which means a 2.5% decrease in run expectation over expectation.

This is not the polar shift it would have been even a few years ago (they moved the AT&T Park fences in prior to 2021), but it is certainly a downgrade in terms of the ballpark for Gausman.

The main way this will hurt Gausman is with the home run ball. Here's a visualization that shows each ballpark's home run rate on barreled balls. In case you are unaware, a "barrel" is a classification of a batted ball that occurs when a ball is hit at or near the optimal combination in launch speed and angle. League-wide, right around 50% of barreled balls went over the fence for a home run, but here's the breakdown for each ballpark (note that I used only games in Rogers Centre for the Blue Jays)

A barreled ball had a 53.7% chance to go over the fence in Rogers Centre, while the number was lower at 46.9% in San Francisco. Again, we aren't dealing with an extreme value for either park, but there is little doubt that Toronto will be a tougher place to pitch in for Gausman in the coming years.

Gausman is not a ground-ball pitcher either (he's been under 42% on his ground-ball rate the last three seasons with a career-high mark of just 46% in 2017), making him more susceptible to dangers of this park shift.

 

Conclusion

There are two main points here, I'll summarize them each individually.

  1. Gausman is coming off of a career year at age 31. I believe this alone to be a pretty good reason to be lower than the field on him for 2022. Being 31 is not a big hindrance in today's league, and top of the SP power ranks is just chock-full of guys well into their 30s, but the fact that Gausman's best year came this late in his career does make the repeatability tougher to believe in. You are going to pay a premium price for a guy, and maybe it will work out, but more often than not the buy-high on a veteran is a negative-EV move.
  2. This is a negative move for his fantasy stock. We have to wait and see how the rest of free agency plays out, but there is nothing to show that the AL East won't be the toughest division to pitch in again in 2021. It hurts even more that Gausman is exiting one of the easiest divisions to pitch in as well. He will face a much, much tougher collection of offenses in 2022 than he did in 2021, which is another legitimate reason to downgrade him.

The field gets sharper and sharper every year, so maybe we won't see as big of a jump in Gausman's ADP now that this signing has taken place. It is never advisable to decide on a full fade of a player before you know their ADP with confidence. That said, at this point in the offseason, the smart money should be on letting someone else take their chances with Gausman.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Offseason Moves




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cleveland Browns36 mins ago

Browns Could Be Desperate Enough To Trade Up For Cam Ward
Noah Murdock41 mins ago

Earns Opening Day Roster Spot
Raheem Mostert56 mins ago

Expected To Be No. 2 Back In Vegas
Stefon Diggs1 hour ago

Raiders Could Target Stefon Diggs
Michael Gallup1 hour ago

To Visit With Seahawks
Rui Hachimura1 hour ago

Has Progressed To Three-On-Three Work
Pittsburgh Steelers1 hour ago

Isaiahh Loudermilk Returning To Steelers
Dorian Finney-Smith1 hour ago

Ready To Face Spurs
Houston Texans1 hour ago

Ronald Darby Signs One-Year Deal With Texans
Luka Dončić1 hour ago

Luka Doncic Officially Available Monday
Travis Homer2 hours ago

Re-Signs With Bears
Toumani Camara2 hours ago

Ruled Out Monday
Esteury Ruiz2 hours ago

A's Option Esteury Ruiz, J.T. Ginn To Triple-A
Patrick Sandoval2 hours ago

Steadily Progressing In His Rehab
Santi Aldama2 hours ago

Misses Sixth Consecutive Game
David Hamilton2 hours ago

The Front-Runner For Second Base Job?
Aaron Gordon2 hours ago

Upgraded To Available
Scotty Pippen Jr.2 hours ago

Out Against Kings
Sean Newcomb2 hours ago

A Candidate For Rotation Spot
Quinten Post2 hours ago

Available Monday Night
Spencer Torkelson2 hours ago

Could Play Regularly As DH
Christian Braun2 hours ago

Misses Monday's Game
Joey Gallo2 hours ago

Trying His Hand At Pitching
Josh Rojas2 hours ago

Dealing With Hairline Fracture In His Big Toe
Stephen Curry2 hours ago

Good To Go Against Nuggets
Michael King2 hours ago

Named Padres' Opening Day Starter
Jamal Murray2 hours ago

Sits Out Monday's Action
Nikola Jokić2 hours ago

Nikola Jokic Out Against Warriors
Brice Turang2 hours ago

Down 3-5 Days After Throwing Session Doesn't Go Well
James McCann3 hours ago

Signs Minor-League Deal With Braves
Corey Kispert3 hours ago

Leaves Road Trip Due To Thumb Injury
Marcus Smart3 hours ago

Not Healthy Enough To Play On Monday
Jordan Clarkson3 hours ago

Active On Monday
Keyonte George3 hours ago

Returns From Four-Game Absence Monday
Collin Sexton3 hours ago

Will Not Play Monday Night
Lauri Markkanen3 hours ago

Available Against Bulls
Coby White3 hours ago

Cleared For Action Monday
Josh Giddey4 hours ago

Remains Out On Monday
Grayson Allen4 hours ago

Sits Out Fourth Straight Game
Philadelphia Eagles4 hours ago

Azeez Ojulari Heading To Philadelphia
Jesse Winker4 hours ago

Exits Early On Monday
Pittsburgh Steelers4 hours ago

Juan Thornhill Heading To Steel City
Orelvis Martinez4 hours ago

Removed Early On Monday
Andrew Benintendi4 hours ago

Takes Live Batting Practice
Minnesota Vikings4 hours ago

Garrett Bradbury Released By Vikings
Alek Manoah4 hours ago

Placed On 60-Day Injured List
Philadelphia Eagles4 hours ago

Eagles Rework Lane Johnson's Contract
Kristian Campbell4 hours ago

Still Competing For Second Base Gig
Brett Baty5 hours ago

Luisangel Acuna Could Platoon At Second Base
Spencer Steer5 hours ago

To Resume Throwing On Tuesday, Could Be Ready For Opening Day
Alexis Díaz5 hours ago

Alexis Diaz To Pitch In Minor-League Game On Tuesday
Tobias Myers5 hours ago

To Start The Year On Injured List
Max Kepler5 hours ago

Dealing With Back Injury
Andrei Svechnikov6 hours ago

Could Return To Action Thursday
Dustin Wolf6 hours ago

Faces Maple Leafs Monday
Jake Allen6 hours ago

Searches For Third Consecutive Victory Monday
Jet Greaves6 hours ago

Receives Starting Nod Monday
Ivan Fedotov6 hours ago

Starts Against Lightning
Joonas Korpisalo6 hours ago

Starts For Bruins Monday
Roman Dolidze7 hours ago

Extends His Win Streak To Three
Marvin Vettori7 hours ago

Suffers Back-To-Back Losses
Will Zalatoris7 hours ago

Has Been Consistent At Least In 2025
Carson Young7 hours ago

Makes The Cut In Second Straight Tournament
Xander Schauffele7 hours ago

Struggles At The PLAYERS Championship
Nicolai Hojgaard7 hours ago

Misses First Cut In 2025
Lucas Glover7 hours ago

Produces Another Strong Showing At The PLAYERS Championship
Joel Dahmen7 hours ago

Finding Stride Heading To Valspar Championship
Corey Conners7 hours ago

Finishes Tied For Sixth At The PLAYERS Championship
Luke Clanton7 hours ago

Secures PGA Tour Card At Cognizant Classic
Blades Brown7 hours ago

Set To Make Fourth PGA Tour Start In 2025
Cameron Young7 hours ago

A Loose Cannon On Florida Swing
Akshay Bhatia7 hours ago

Secures Third Top-10 Finish
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos7 hours ago

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Sahith Theegala7 hours ago

Seeking Elusive Consistency In Florida
Kyler Murray7 hours ago

Excited For 2025
Joe Highsmith8 hours ago

An Intriguing Option At The Valspar
Chidi Njokuani8 hours ago

Scores TKO Win At UFC Vegas 104
New York Jets8 hours ago

Byron Cowart Inks Deal With Jets
Kurt Holobaugh8 hours ago

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 104
Alexander Hernandez8 hours ago

Wins Decision At UFC Vegas 104
PGA8 hours ago

Nico Echavarria Just Attempting To Get To The Weekend
Bud Cauley8 hours ago

Trying To Keep Good Times Rolling
8 hours ago

Tetairoa McMillan Increasing His Draft Stock
Christiaan Bezuidenhout8 hours ago

Needs His Putter At The Valspar
PGA9 hours ago

Byeong Hun An Attempts To Get Off To Faster Start
Joseph Woll9 hours ago

Starting On Monday
Nick Jensen9 hours ago

Not Expected To Play On Tuesday
Dylan Strome9 hours ago

Battling Illness
Jonas Brodin9 hours ago

Not Playing On Monday, Viewed As Day-To-Day
Cody Gibson9 hours ago

Submitted At UFC Vegas 104
Josh Norris9 hours ago

Not Playing On Monday
Da'Mon Blackshear9 hours ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
JJ Peterka9 hours ago

Ruled Out For Monday's Contest
Brendson Ribeiro10 hours ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC Vegas 104
Diyar Nurgozhay10 hours ago

Suffers His First Loss
MMA10 hours ago

Seung Woo Choi Suffers First-Round TKO Loss At UFC Vegas 104
Kevin Vallejos10 hours ago

Finishes Seung Woo Choi In Debut
Jameis Winston10 hours ago

To Visit With Giants On Tuesday
Cincinnati Bengals10 hours ago

Bengals Still Hoping To Sign Trey Hendrickson To An Extension
Houston Texans11 hours ago

Texans Make Derek Stingley Jr. The Highest-Paid Defensive Back
Tyler Reddick12 hours ago

Solid Performance Is Derailed By Late Pit-Road Issues At Las Vegas
Ryan Blaney12 hours ago

Struggles End In A Disappointing Exit Late At Las Vegas
Josh Berry13 hours ago

Impressively Earns First Cup Series Win At Las Vegas
AJ Allmendinger13 hours ago

Scores First Top-10 Finish Of Season At Las Vegas
Kyle Larson13 hours ago

Leads The Most Laps, But Settles For A Top-10 Finish At Las Vegas
Ross Chastain13 hours ago

Obtains A Hard-Fought Top-Five Finish At Las Vegas
Daniel Suarez13 hours ago

Scores Career-Best Finish At Las Vegas, But Falls Short Of Winning
Cole Perfetti16 hours ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Victory
Karel Vejmelka16 hours ago

Earns Victory On Sunday
Jordan Kyrou16 hours ago

Tallies Three Points On Sunday
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins17 hours ago

Dishes Out Three Helpers
Cale Makar17 hours ago

Tallies Three Points On Sunday
Dmitry Kulikov17 hours ago

Injured On Sunday
NASCAR19 hours ago

Bubba Wallace Wrecks At Las Vegas But Shows Promising Speed
Alex Bowman19 hours ago

Recovers From Loose Wheel To Finish Seventh
Austin Cindric19 hours ago

Wins Stage 1, But Loose Wheel Foils Victory Bid
William Byron19 hours ago

Loses Las Vegas Race On Strategy But Expands Points Lead
Ryan Preece19 hours ago

Earns Best Career Non-Drafting Oval Finish At Las Vegas
Tee Higgins24 hours ago

Becomes Highest-Paid WR2 In NFL History
Ja'Marr Chase1 day ago

Bengals Make Ja'Marr Chase The Highest-Paid Non-QB In NFL History
Miami Dolphins1 day ago

Ryan Stonehouse Signs With Dolphins
Sam Darnold1 day ago

Could Opt Out After One Season
Igor Shesterkin1 day ago

Remains In Rangers Crease Sunday
John Gibson1 day ago

Still Out On Sunday
Nick Bjugstad1 day ago

Returns For Utah Sunday
Christopher Bell2 days ago

Quest For Four Wins In A Row Just Got More Difficult
Kyle Larson2 days ago

Should Contend For Another Win At Las Vegas
Ryan Blaney2 days ago

Once Again The Chalk DFS Pick At Las Vegas
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Fastest In Practice At Las Vegas
Chris Buescher2 days ago

Has Sneaky Upside This Weekend
Chase Elliott2 days ago

May Be A Sneaky DFS Option For Las Vegas Lineups
William Byron2 days ago

Expect William Byron To Compete For The Win At Las Vegas
Tyler Reddick2 days ago

Is One Of The Top DFS Options For Las Vegas
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Could Denny Hamlin Be A Quality Driver For DFS At Las Vegas?
Roman Dolidze4 days ago

Set For A Rematch
Marvin Vettori4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Chidi Njokuani4 days ago

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos4 days ago

Looks For His 12th UFC Win
Kurt Holobaugh4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Vegas 104
Alexander Hernandez4 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Cody Gibson4 days ago

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Da'Mon Blackshear4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 104
Brendson Ribeiro4 days ago

Searching For Second UFC Win On Saturday
Jacob Bridgeman6 days ago

Use Caution For Jacob Bridgeman At TPC Sawgrass
Nicolai Hojgaard6 days ago

Looks To Stay Consistent Heading Into PLAYERS Championship
Karl Vilips6 days ago

Makes PLAYERS Championship Debut After First PGA Tour Win
Taylor Pendrith6 days ago

A Sneaky Play At TPC Sawgrass
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF