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Wide receiver Kenny Golladay signed with the New York Giants in the 2021 NFL offseason. Craig Rondinone analyzes Golladay's fantasy football draft value at WR.
It was no holiday for the fantasy football players who had Kenny Golladay on their rosters in 2020.
After posting back-to-back 1,000-yard years and entering the season as a top-10 fantasy wide receiver on many if not most cheat sheets, Golladay’s injury-riddled season ruined the championship dreams of many fantasy general managers. Hip and hamstring problems limited him to 20 receptions for 338 yards and two touchdowns in just five games. Luckily for Golladay, the New York Giants trusted him enough because of his past work and gifted him a $72 million contract to be their No. 1 WR for the upcoming year and hopefully many more.
So how will Golladay fare with the Giants? And how will his new teammates and his old teammates fare now that he has switched teams?
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Fantasy Impact on Kenny Golladay
Golladay is not an injury-prone player, if there is such a thing. Last year seems like an anomaly. He missed one game between the 2018 and 2019 campaigns and proved to be an elite receiver when healthy and on the field. Golladay racked up 2,253 receiving yards and 16 touchdown catches over that two-year span and deserves the millions his agent garnered for him. He has speed, size, leaping ability, big-play ability, and can make catches all over the field. Golladay’s skills and talent are not the issues when it comes to what his 2021 fantasy value will be.
The rub is who Golladay signed with. New York and franchise quarterback Daniel Jones have not been kind to the fantasy values of their pass catchers the past two seasons. No Giants receiver or tight end had 800 receiving yards or four touchdown receptions last year. No Giant had 750 receiving yards the year prior, either. Even the run-first Baltimore Ravens find ways to get Mark Andrews and Marquise Brown some yards and into the end zone on a regular basis.
Matthew Stafford is a better quarterback than Daniel Jones. Marvin Jones and T.J. Hockenson were better pass catchers than any of the current crop of Giants pass catchers. This means Golladay is going to have to work for his multimillions because the situation he is stepping into is a downgrade. Jones must take a step forward in his development or else Golladay will see golden opportunities for fantasy points get wasted when dying quails end up over his head or in the arms of opposing cornerbacks.
Fantasy Impact on Daniel Jones
The pressure is on Jones to prove that he is the cornerstone of the Giants' offense or else he will be sent to Siberia, or worse, the XFL or CFL. While Golladay cannot help Jones stop his fumbling, he should be able to better Jones’ touchdown-to-interception ratio (11-10 in 2020) by giving him the best touchdown target he has had since being drafted --- by far! Golden Tate was not the No. 1 WR Jones needed, and neither are any of the other receivers on the roster. Golladay is a true No. 1. He will not hurt Jones’ fantasy value this year, he can only help. When you flip the script, though, the same is not true. Jones could certainly damage Golladay’s fantasy worth.
Fantasy Impact on the Giants' Receiving Corps
Golladay will not be constantly double-covered since the Giants have a solid supporting cast of pass-catchers surrounding him. The problem with the group is their inconsistency and their injury histories, which is why Golladay needed to be paid handsomely to be the top target of the passing attack.
Sterling Shepard is a competent slot receiver. He also rarely remains healthy (15 missed games over the past four years) and rarely reaches the end zone (12 touchdowns over the same time frame). Darius Slayton has 1,491 receiving yards and 11 scores over his first two NFL seasons, but he swings and misses in games as often as he gives fantasy managers solid Sundays. Over his last 10 games in 2020, Slayton did not score a touchdown and only broke the 50-yard barrier in three of his outings. Top tight end Evan Engram is known more for his ill-timed drops than any spectacular 100-yard games or multiple-touchdown efforts.
None of the players mentioned above are going to suddenly become fantasy superstars due to Golladay’s arrival. Slayton is the one with the biggest upside, and maybe Golladay steers secondaries away from Slayton so the third-year man gets looser coverages against lesser cornerbacks. Slayton could reach the 800 or 900-yard mark thanks to Golladay, though the extra targets that New York’s new No. 1 WR will take away will not do Slayton any fantasy favors and likely keep him from having 1,000 yards.
The Poor Detroit Lions' Receiving Corps
If you are a Detroit fan and/or someone who has Lions quarterback Jared Goff on their dynasty roster, you have to be praying on a stack of fantasy football magazines that the organization has a better plan for the upcoming season than going with Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman as its top two wideouts. Please, please, please draft a receiver in the first couple rounds who can consistently make big plays and someone who drinks enough milk to keep his bones from breaking!
If we are to think that Detroit is not going to upgrade its receiver corps through the draft or another free agent signing, then Williams becomes the de facto No. 1 WR and could pile up 800 yards and six scores in that role. He has one 1,000-yard season to his credit (four years ago) and scored 22 times over a four-year stretch. Detroit will probably throw the ball a lot since the Lions will not be good and Williams could pile on lots of garbage-time touchdowns and yards --- if he stays injury-free. He missed all of 2020 due to a shoulder injury.
Perriman is perpetually injured and harder to trust than a car salesman. He shows flashes of brilliance for those 10-12 games he dressed for every season, but it is hard to get excited about him in this spot. He is somebody to have on your fantasy radar as a low-price option in DFS leagues when the matchup and dollar amount is right, but for fantasy leagues, he is a late-round flier pick at best.
The Detroit pass-catcher who stands to gain from Golladay departing is tight end T.J. Hockenson, who came into his own during his sophomore season in the NFL. Hockenson is a top-five fantasy TE entering 2021 and should lead the team in targets by a wide margin if the Lions do not bring in any big names at the WR position.
2021 Fantasy Outlook
Golladay is a premier wide receiver who should bounce back from his disastrous 2020 season. That said, due to Jones being his quarterback and being in a system that caters to top tailback Saquon Barkley, his ceiling is a little lower than it would have been if he signed with the Cincinnati Bengals or Jacksonville Jaguars. I can see Golladay finishing with 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns in 2021, but it is difficult to peg him for 1,200 yards and 10 touchdowns unless Jones makes major strides in his development and becomes an above-average quarterback.
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