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Jarred Kelenic was recently traded to the Atlanta Braves. What is the fantasy baseball impact of this move and what is his outlook as the Braves' left fielder?
Jarred Kelenic is coming off his best season as a pro, although the final stat line was still a far cry from where baseball minds would have projected it to be just a few years ago. Kelenic was drafted with the sixth overall pick in 2018, and by 2021, he saw his first MLB action. Since then, it hasn't gone as planned:
On December 3, Kelenic was given a new lease on his MLB career when he was traded to the Atlanta Braves along with LHP Marco Gonzales and 1B Evan White for RHP Jackson Kowar and RHP Cole Phillips.
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Depending on playing time and whether or not the Braves can get him to make more contact will ultimately determine if he's able to become a viable fantasy asset in 2024.
Jarred Kelenic's Fantasy Baseball Outlook for 2024
As of now, RosterResource has Kelenic slotted into the eighth spot in the batting order for the Braves in 2024. He spent most of his time in 2023 batting somewhere in the third through sixth spot in the lineup, which are usually reserved for bats that can drive in a bunch of runs. Hitting eighth should take some of the pressure off of Kelenic to produce, although the Braves' bottom-of-the-order hitters (7-9) have generated some prolific RBI totals the last couple of seasons (ATL 237 RBI in '23, 244 RBI in '22; SEA 189 in '23 and '22).
When you look at Kelenic's numbers to see what might be holding him back, your eyes are immediately drawn to the gaudy strikeout numbers. Three times more K than BB and a 30.7% strikeout rate. If he can bring that down, you could see his batting average and OBP rise, which in turn should help other numbers rise like RBI, R, and SB. Of course, reducing the amount of strikeouts is easier said than done, but the Braves have the personnel to do it.
In 2022, the Braves struck out 1498 times (24.6% K%, third-worst), but hitting coach Kevin Seitzer wanted to reduce that number. In 2023, the Braves struck out just 1289 times (20.6% K%, fifth-best). Seitzer also has a fairly famous consultant working with Braves hitters too -- Chipper Jones.
Another example of those two working to get a hitter straightened out was with Michael Harris II last season. He hit .174 (19-for-109) through the end of May. Over the rest of the season after working with Seitzer and Jones, Harris hit .326 (129-for-396).
So back to Kelenic -- is he someone you will draft in fantasy leagues? It all comes down to playing time. The Braves also have prospect Vaughn Grissom getting experience in left field this offseason. His bat is good, but his defense wasn't MLB-level good at shortstop, so in order to get his bat in the lineup, they might try LF. That could mean a platoon situation and that would make Kelenic unrosterable.
Looking at Kelenic's 2023 splits, however, he actually fared slightly better against LHP than RHP (.259 vs. LHP, .251 vs. RHP), so there shouldn't be a need to sit him when the Braves face left-handed pitching. Kelenic has a stronger arm and faster top sprint speed, so it's entirely possible he wins the LF job outright. The Braves could keep Grissom as depth in case of injury or use him as a trade chip for some pitching help that they really need (looking at you, Dylan Cease).
Kelenic adds some value in the stolen base department too after swiping 13 bags in 105 games played last season. If in spring training it looks like Kelenic will win the job outright, then given nearly 600 ABs as the regular left fielder, he should approach 20 HR and 20 SB. It would certainly make him rosterable and he'd surely outproduce his ADP (current ADP is ~220; possible Anthony Volpe-like numbers whose ADP is currently ~135).
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