RADIO
BALLER MOVE: Target in drafts ~pick 144
CURRENT ADP: ~188
ANALYSIS: We’ve yet to see a full season (150-plus games) out of Ke'Bryan Hayes but breakout signs are emerging.
The 27-year-old brought his strikeout rate down for a second straight year while bumping his ISO to .182 from .101 in ‘22. His average exit velocity gained another tick and his fly-ball rate jumped by more than 10 percentage points. He particularly loved facing southpaws (.847 OPS, .238 ISO, 120 wRC+) but held his own against right-handers (.721, .156, 92). The overall point is that his bat is still climbing.
And why shouldn’t it be? A wrist injury plagued his 2021 season and then he played through a back injury for much of 2022. Pittsburgh played it safe with two IL stints in ‘23 due to lower back inflammation. But his healthy stretch run in August/September saw him hit .299 with 10 HRs.
There is a 20-25 HR bat in here. I will note he only attempted two swipes after the IL visits after going 9-for-14 in the first half. A healthy Hayes could punch the ball and feel comfortable running en route to a 20/15/.275 campaign near pick 200. Such a finish would yield roughly 4-5 rounds of profit.
Golden and Grand. pic.twitter.com/OmEQoOe9C1
— Pittsburgh Pirates (@Pirates) February 27, 2024
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