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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 6/3/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
Tuesday was a positive day record wise, but man I can't help but be a bit sick about the NC Dinos. It seems like every time they are in the "right spot" and I grab the runline, they blow up. That happened again on Tuesday. And maybe it was just poor analysis on my part, as the SK Wyverns seem to be making a statement that they aren't as dead as people thought they were. Nonetheless, it was still a day where money was made.
- Tuesday, June 2: 2-1
- 2020 KBO Season: 45-16
For new and old readers, just assume that every pick is one unit. Yes, I've had success but I'm not getting out of my means for that exact reason. This is still such a new league to all of us and we need to make sure we look at value not just dollar signs.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for Wednesday, June 3rd at 5:30 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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Kiwoom Heroes (-143) at Hanwha Eagles
O/U: 9.5
Probable Pitchers
Kiwoom: Young-gun Cho (0-0, 0,00 ERA)
Hanwha: Warwick Saupold (2-2, 2.65 ERA)
The Heroes didn't need to rely on their arms Tuesday, as they slugged out 17 hits and 15 runs to open the series. Now they'll toss out 21-year-old Young-gun Cho for his second career start. He's thrown just 1.1 innings previously with four walks and one strikeout. His only start was last year and he made it through one out while surrendering three runs on three hits but has spent the majority of his time in the Futures League.
Kiwoom's offense has been pretty topsy-turvy over the last week or so. They're 4-6 in their L10 but in three of their four wins they've scored double digit runs. Four Heroes drove in multiple runs Tuesday, including slugger Byung-ho Park and Woong-bin Kim who slugged homers. There is definitely talent in this offense but consistency has been an issue thus far.
The Hanwha Eagles don't have much to gloat about this year. the one thing they d have is Warwick Saupold who has proven to be one of the better starting pitchers in the KBO. His start to 2020 has been great, never allowing more than three runs in an outing, including a complete game shutout of SK on Opening Day. He's faced Kiwoom twice in his career, allowing just three earned runs in 11 innings, including May 10's effort where he went six frames and allowed just five hits.
Here is where Hanwha becomes less fun. This lineup is putrid. They have the league's lowest batting average, runs scored, extra-base hits, and OPS. They're in no way patient at the plate with 180 strikeouts and just 66 walks. It's hard to find positives. A supposed bright spot would be infielder Eun-won Jung who has a hit in 10 of his last 12, but guys behind him like Jared Hoying and Sung-yul Lee have had a real issue bringing runs around.
This won't be a popular pick, but I think Saupold gives Hanwha an early jolt of energy. Kiwoom has scored double digits five times this year and they've lost the following game four times, with the only win coming after their 11-2 opening day victory. I'm sticking with the F5 because Saupold is the clear better pitcher here. I don't want to try and predict what happens after he exits.
Pick: Hanwha First 5 Innings ML +104 (Draftkings Sportsbook)
Samsung Lions at LG Twins (-240)
O/U: 8.5
Probable Pitchers
Samsung: Yun-dong Heo (1-0, 0.00 ERA)
LG: Casey Kelly (2-0, 4.05 ERA)
Don't look now, but the Samsung Lions are making some noise. Winning five of their last seven games, the Lions have scored 37 runs (5.3 per game) and won series against Lotte and NC. The lineup has done their part and their baseline numbers are starting to improve. Their hitting just .249 with a .715 OPS but they have one of the better averages w/RISP at .306. Tyler Saladino has broken out of his early-season slump and is on a six-game hitting streak with with 2 homers and 10 RBI, while Won-seok Lee and Dong-yub Kim have been hitting but need more opportunities to drive in runs.
The Lions will look to 18-year-old Yun-don Heo to make his second KBO start. On May 28, the lefty threw five scoreless against Lotte, holding them to just four hits but he did issue four walks while striking out only one. Terribly small sample size to pull from but LG's lineup is pretty lefty heavy, which should give him an advantage.
LG got blanked Tuesday, their first time being shutout through their first 24 games. Luckily Roberto Ramos was back in the lineup after leaving Sunday's game early with an injury, but he wasn't able to bring any production to the plate. As mentioned above, the Twins boast five lefties in their lineup and they have struggled so far when facing southpaws. There is still a lot of experience in this lineup which gives them a distinct advantage over an 18-year-old.
Casey Kelly has been either spot on or pretty bad through his first four 202 starts. His last time out against Hanwha, he went six scoreless, scattering four hits with 10 strikeouts and three walks in a 3-0 win. He has yet to give up a home run in 2020 but the inconsistency is interesting for a guy who had a 1.14 WHIP. Also, his BABIP sits at .355 which is definitely high compared to the .282 he had in 2019, but it's near spot on the .352 BABIP against him in his 26 major league appearances.
This total is a bit low for my liking. Kelly might a solid pitcher but he doesn't bring anything overpowering to the table against an offense that is trending up. Heo is an 18-year-old that gets a solid matchup with a lefty-heavy lineup, but it's hard to trust such a young kid until he shows us more. However, there is an interesting trend I noticed when looking at LG's schedule. The Twins have lost eight times this year and in six of the seven games following a loss, the total went over 10.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-116; Fanduel Sportsbook)
SK Wyverns at NC Dinos (-195)
O/U: 10.5
Probable Pitchers
SK: Geun-wook Lee (1-0, 1.04 ERA)
NC: Sung-young Choi (0-0, 2.70 ERA)
SK is rolling out righty Geun-wook Lee to try and take down back-to-back series'. The 26-year-old has allowed eight runs in only 10.2 career innings since 2018, with most of it coming in relief. His first ever start was May 28 at Doosan and he was able to hold back the Bears for just one run over 5.1 innings. However, as you probably already know, Doosan prefers to score on the road than at home.
The Dinos have rightfully annoyed many bettors and fantasy players alike with their inconsistency at the plate over the last week. But there's no problem going back to the well here. Eight hitters have double-digit RBI and seven have at least seven extra-base hits. We know it's here, they just need to produce, especially against a right-hander where they're hitting .293 in that situation this season.
We've been burned by the Dinos a handful of times already but they are 18-6 for a reason. They average 6.5 runs per game at home and have good matchup at the plate. They were certainly pressing out of frustration on Tuesday and should come back ready to score some runs.
Pick: NC Team Total Over 5.5 (-111; FoxBet)
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