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Steve Janik recommends betting picks for the KBO slate on 6/18/2020. He breaks down each team's roster and suggests the top picks on moneylines, totals, and runlines.
Wednesday brought us back-to-back two-game takedowns. The KT Wiz almost crapped the bed after leaving two RISP in both the 8th and 9th innings, but extra innings was just what the doctor ordered. Hanwha and LG didn't go exactly as I thought, with Chad Bell stinking up the place yet again, but LG called the dogs off after getting a big lead early. Just like that we're off to a 4-0 start on the week.
- Tuesday, June 16: 2-0
- 2020 KBO Season: 57-30-1 (64.7%)
I can't stress it enough that if you're reading my analysis to make the best decision for you and not just blindly tail. If you don't feel comfortable with one of my picks, why would you take it? I'm not a professional, nor have I said to be one, I just value stats and information to make educated decisions. For new and old readers, just assume that every pick is one unit. Not only is this league volatile, but the game of baseball is incredibly volatile. Bankroll management is key.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for games on Thursday, June 18th starting at 5:30 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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LG Twins (-305) at Hanwha Eagles
O/U: 10
Probable Pitchers
LG: Tyler Wilson (2-2, 4.20 ERA)
Hanwha: Si-hwan Jang (1-4, 7.48 ERA)
Tyler Wilson had some lofty expectations coming into 2020 and despite two bad starts, he's lived up that billing. He's given up two-or-less earned runs in five of his seven starts and one of those was a seven spot in his first start of the season against NC. Wilson's peripherals are near copies of his 2019 season; a 18K %, 1.25 WHIP, 3.96 FIP, and .282 BABIP hint that he's pitching slightly better than his numbers might suggest. Wilson has also already shutout Hanwha through six innings on May 26, but with a new (albeit worse) lineup, it's hard to base much around that.
The Twins have rolled right through the first two games of the series, outscoring Hanwha 16-6. Now, all things point to them getting their star hitter, Roberto Ramos, back on Thursday. Ji-hwan Oh, Hyun-soo Kim, and Eun-sung Chae have carried some major weight, so while Ramos might not be completely ready to go upon return, their surrounding cast is performing how winning clubs do.
Si-hwan Jang couldn't have a worse start to his time with Hanwha. He hasn't earned a quality start since May 13 and has allowed a home run in three of his last four starts while also walking at least three in each of his last five starts. One upside would be his 23 K% but the 2.24 WHIP overshadows that by a mile.
There's no need to continually repeat myself about how bad the Eagles lineup is. Jared Hoying looks like he's completely given up at the plate and their most consistent hitter right now is a 38-year-old DH. Averaging just 2.6 runs per game, Hanwha are essentially warm bodies out on the field.
LG has had no issues getting out in front of Hanwha through the first two games and with Ramos expected back for Thursday, they should have no issues sweeping. With a clear starting pitching advantage, I look for LG to jump out early and maintain momentum into the weekend.
Pick(s): LG First 5 innings -1.5 (-110, Draftkings Sportsbook)
Lotte Giants (-113) at Kiwoom Heroes (-113)
O/U: 9.5
Probable Pitchers
Lotte: Dan Straily (1-2, 2.08 ERA)
Kiwoom: Seung-ho Lee (0-2, 6.09 ERA)
Dan Straily has been incredibly efficient in his short time with the Lotte Giants. He's allowed more than two runs in just one of his eight starts and has only served up two long balls in 47.2 innings. Straily's 26.2 K% is third best in the KBO and while he's had a flew flare ups with controls earlier in the year, he's walked just three over his last three outings.
The Giants lineup has produced a bit more over the past 10 games, averaging 5.7 runs but it hasn't been splashy with only seven homers hits in that span. Jun-woo Jeon has been a major catalyst thanks to a 10-game hit streak, including three homers and eight RBI. Dixon Machado has continued his streaky play at the plate, but does have seven RBI in his L10. Averaging just 4.1 runs per game on the road this season, they've scored 10 through two games this series and 25 over their last five road contests, so the Giants lineup is performing slightly above average right now. However, they are batting an abysmal .193 against LHP this season.
The Heroes will look to Seung-ho Lee to capture the series against Lotte. Lee is fresh off a key start against NC where he held them scoreless on four hits over six frames. The 21-year-old is having a similar year to 2019 where he went 8-5 and his peripherals are similar as well. The 1.56 WHIP isn't good but it's about his average, meanwhile he's stranding runners at 66% clip. The southpaw has been rocked around a bit at home with a 7.77 ERA over 22 innings but his last start might be showing a sign of things to come.
Kiwoom has been quite streaky over their L10, going 5-5 with a -1 run differential. They walked off on Lotte Wednesday to even the series out but they left eight runners on base throughout the game, so they'll certainly look to capitalize on that moving forward. Unfortunately for them, slugger Byung-ho Park was just placed on the 10-day injured list, so add that onto already missing catcher Dong-won Park and this Heroes offense is very vulnerable right now.
If Chang-mo Koo wasn't around, Straily might be pushing the conversation for best starter in the KBO, and he very well may be the best foreign arm in the league. His opponent has bad numbers, but he's fresh off his best start of the season against the league's best team. Pitching should have the advantage over hitting here when you consider injuries to Kiwoom and Lotte's struggles against lefites. I like the under here.
Pick(s): Under 9.5 (-125, Draftkings Sportsbook)
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