RADIO
I'm back after a short weekend hiatus. Life has been getting very busy recently now that lifestyle restrictions are being lifted across the US. There were some interesting things that happened in the KBO over the weekend, like Hanwha not only breaking their 18-game losing streak, but sweeping both ends of a doubleheader against Doosan. This league is exactly as volatile as we've already thought. Now back to the picks!
- Friday , June 12: 0-1-1
- 2020 KBO Season: 53-30-1 (63%)
I can't stress it enough that if you're reading my analysis to make the best decision for you and not just blindly tail. If you don't feel comfortable with one of my picks, why would you take it? I'm not a professional, nor have I said to be one, I just value stats and information to make educated decisions. For new and old readers, just assume that every pick is one unit. Not only is this league volatile, but the game of baseball is incredibly volatile. Bankroll management is key.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for games on Tuesday, June 16th starting at 5:30 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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Samsung Lions at Doosan Bears (-230)
O/U: 10.5
Probable Pitchers
Samsung: Jung-hyun Baek (1-3, 7.20 ERA)
Doosan: Raul Alcantara (6-1, 4.07 ERA)
The Samsung Lions have won each of their last two series (won 5 of last 7) with their bats really coming alive against KT over the weekend. Now they return to the road where their struggles are documented. Just over four runs scored and under eight hits a game as visitors, the Lions come into one of the most pitcher friendly ballparks in the league. Ja-wook Koo has been mashing since his return from injury. Over six games, the 27-year-old is 10-for-24 with two home runs, and six RBI over six games. A big downside for them in this spot is facing Doosan's top arm coming off of one of his better starts this season.
Southpaw Jung-hyun Baek toes the rubber with hopes of solidifying his return to form against Doosan. Baek had two average starts before suffering an injury only to get absolutely shelled in his first start back. His last time out, though, was easily his best, going six scoreless innings of two-hit baseball against Kiwoom. He's got a sky high 6.47 FIP right now, but he's due to return closer to 4.81 FIP he's averaged since 2017.
Doosan got a bit of a shock Sunday, dropping both ends of a doubleheader to Hanwha, who used the game one win to break their 18-game losing skid. The Bears now return home where they struggle to put up runs (4.5 rpg) but are still 9-5 in Jamsil Stadium. They've scored more than five runs just once in their last nine home games and hit a paltry .247 with just five home runs as hosts. Sure, Jose Fernandez and Joo-hwan Choi are major run producers but Jae-il Oh (side) was removed from the roster after nit playing Sunday and that's a big loss to the Bears lineup.
Raul Alcantara has given Doosan quite a boost on the mound, earning six straight wins after dropping his Opening Day start. He's allowed more than three runs just twice and has displayed solid control with six of his nine walks occurring in two games. He shut down NC at home June 10, holding them scoreless over seven frames so he's back off arguably his best start of the year.
Doosan has trouble scoring at home, while Samsung has trouble on the road. Each side averages less than five runs per game in their situation this series and with Doosan missing one of their top sluggers, the Bears could see their home struggles continue. Add in that both pitchers are coming off strong performances into a matchup at a pitcher-friendly park, and I like the under here.
Pick(s): Under 10.5 (-121, Draftkings Sportsbook)
NC Dinos (-175) at Kia Tigers
O/U: 9
Probable Pitchers
NC: Drew Rucinski (4-1, 2.23 ERA)
Kia: Aaron Brooks (3-2, 2.76 ERA)
NC has gotten the absolute best out of Drew Rucinski thus far in 2020. Over seven starts, he has just one start where he's allowed more than two runs and he's also spun three scoreless outings in between. His near 23 K% is six points above his 2019 mark but his 3.71 FIP says he is has some room for regression but he's still on a pretty solid pace to start the year. His four home runs allowed have come in just two games so he's limiting any blow-up innings. He's being overshadowed by his teammate Chang-mo Koo, but Rucinski would be the ace on just about any other KBO team right now.
The Dinos have been on the road just once since June started and it was a series sweep against the the fledgling Hanwha Eagles. They just lost the series to Kiwoom but did take the finale 9-5 Sunday. They're still 7-3 over the L10 and the lineup has slugged 17 home runs, which is the most in the league over that span. Sung-bum Na and Aaron Altherr have been tearing the cover off the ball, while Eui-ji Yang is having a great year but has had some boom-or-bust moments over the last two weeks. They're hitting .326 against righties this year, which tops the KBO.
Kia looks to American Aaron Brooks to start their homestand off on the right foot. They've won four of their last six and find themselves in a spot to pull away from Lotte in the standings. Brook has been solid but never spectacular over seven starts, allowing three or more runs just twice and carrying a 20 K% which is a bit front-loaded; he hasn't registered more than five strikeouts over his last three starts. A bright spot is he's only walked seven and allowed just two home runs across 42.1 innings, but NC will obviously present him a challenge.
An even 5-5 record over their last 10, the Tigers' lineup has plated just 45 runs but nine of those games came on the road where they average just 3.9 runs. Now they return home where they score almost three whole runs more (6.40) but the trade off is getting to face the best starting rotation in the league. Sun-bin Kim is out for Kia and now they'll miss recently acquired Ji-hyuk Ryu (hamstring) for a few weeks, so this offense is a few key bats. However, Preston Tucker and handful of other bats are still healthy, but their consistency will need to spike against NC.
This is a matchup of top arms who are in great recent form. The Dinos offense is still the best in the league but Brooks will present them quite a challenge. Meanwhile, Kia is missing a few bats, meaning the aging lineup will have to pickup the slack against a dominant Rucinski. The pitching will take advantage of the hitting here early, before their sketchy bullpens get the ball and I like a low-scoring affair until that point.
Pick: First 5 Innings Under 4.5 (+107, Draftkings Sportsbook)
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