RADIO
Wednesday was nice to us as Odrisamer Despaigne spun a gem to help KT cruise to a nice 5-0 victory and cash the under. Meanwhile, NC dropped a 10-spot themselves and Kiwoom was able to make enough happen that the over cashed with ease. Then we get to Doosan who had things rolling through the first five innings scoring four runs, but they weren't able to dig any further into the SK bullpen. Nonetheless, it was a green day and we continue on the KBO train we've been riding.
- Tuesday, May 27: 2-1
- 2020 KBO Season: 34-13
A little disclosure for the article below. I'm only taking two bets for Thursday. There are a handful of pitchers that either haven't played this year or are making their first career start. Then in the case of Kiwoom, their starter hasn't thrown in a game since 2017. Just far too much volatility to even make an educated guess on what is going to happen. I wouldn't want to bet my own money on these games, let alone recommend something that someone else would put their money down on.
Today, I'll be bringing you my KBO analysis, advice, and best bets for Thursday, May 28th at 5:30 am EST. If you haven’t already, check out www.mykbostats.com; it’s is a fantastic one-stop-shop for us in America to get our KBO fix. You can also check out our KBO DFS lineup picks article after this one. Also, feel free to hit me up on Twitter @RotoStevieJ to talk shop or chew me out if a pick loses.
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LG Twins (-175) at Hanwha Eagles
O/U: 7.5
Probable Pitchers
LG: Casey Kelly (1-0, 5.79 ERA)
Hanwha: Warwick Saupold (2-1, 2.25 ERA)
With a 7-3 record in their last 10, the LG Twins are doing their best to keep up with NC at the top of the KBO standings. Their 15-4 win over Hanwha on Wednesday was their second largest margin of victory this season, and they've scored 57 runs over that 10-game span. Roberto Ramos also hit his ninth home run, and his third in as many games; thus drawing early favorite for KBO Most Valuable Player.
Through his first three starts of the season, Casey Kelly has dealt with some dumb luck, as evidenced by his 2.82 FIP but a 5.79 ERA. His 15.9 K% and 4.8 BB% are about in line with his 2019 numbers, but his current .360 BABIP is very high. so he's due for some positive regression.
Hanwha got their brakes beaten off, truly, for the first time this year on Wednesday. A leadoff homer by Eun-won Jung hopefully set a nice precedent, but it was all for naught. They've been shutout twice in the last five games and haven't scored more than five runs just once since May 20. Realistically, just look at their .669 OPS and 70 runs scored and that's about all you need to know about the Eagles recent form.
Warwick Saupold is about as formidable a mound opponent as Kelly can get. The Aussie has been great through his first 28 innings, holding down a 0.96 WHIP, while allowing just seven earned runs. He, like Kelly, does a great job of limiting big innings and through his first 220.1 innings, he's allowed just nine home runs. The 13.7 K% could be better, but he did only have a 16 K% in 2019. Hanwha's bullpen got used a ton on Wednesday, so they need a solid six or seven out of Saupold.
Wednesday marked the first over to hit while Hanwha is the home team, but that was only because of LG's offense. This pitching matchup is easily the best on the slate but I look for Kelly to get back on track here. Hanwha's offense is just not good while the Twins' lineup is capable even against a good arm. If you need more convincing, LG has played seven road games, winning five of them and all have been by at least two runs.
Pick: LG -1.5
Kia Tigers (-150) at KT Wiz
O/U: 9.5
Probable Pitchers
Kia: Hyeon-jong Yang (3-1, 3.43 ERA)
KT: Hyeong-jun So (2-1, 6.48 ERA)
Kia got stopped dead in their tracks by Odrisamer Despaigne on Wednesday, but this is still a team that has won six of their last eight. Interestingly enough, they've scored six or more in just half of the games in that stretch. That's what makes Thursday so interesting, as they get to face an 18-year-old making his fourth career start. They're batting .273 with a .751 OPS and 53 extra-base hits. Preston Tucker and Sun-bin Kim have been solid but they need their tablesetter, Chan-ho Park, and cleanup hitter, Hyoung-woo Choi to contribute more.
The Tigers get Hyeong-jong Yang for the fifth time this season. The 32-year-old is fresh off one of the best years of his career where he went 16-8 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. After a rough Opening Day start, he's settled down and has allowed just eight earned runs over 21 innings with a 19.1 K% and 7.1 BB%. Yang is a southpaw which has it's obvious benefits, but KT carries just a handful of lefties in the lineup so he'll need to bring a different level of deceptiveness.
The KT Wiz offense has be pretty consistent and if it weren't for their pitching staff, they'd likely have a better record than 8-11. Statistically, their lineup is right up there with the Doosan Bears in every major offensive category while they have six more extra-base hits than any other team in the league. They're certainly missing Baek-ho Kang, but Mel Rojas Jr. has done a great job leading the lineup, with Jae-Gyun Hwang and Kyung-su Park filling the rest out.
The Wiz go from the seasoned pro pitcher in Despaigne to an 18-year-old in Hyeong-jun So that will be making his fourth career start. He won his first two starts, so things could've certainly been worse, until he flopped against Hanwha his last time out. They ran him for eight runs on nine hits over 5.1 innings. While he has just a 6/3 K/BB, there is some talent here but not enough to consider him a major threat just yet.
After getting blanked on Wednesday, Kia's lineup will be out for revenge. I look for Tucker and the other lefty bats to have a big day for the Tigers. Meanwhile, KT has no issues scoring runs themselves at home. They've had the over hit seven times already while playing host and I think they'll try to score as many as possible to backup their young arm on the mound.
Pick: Over 9.5
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