Here's How Kaleb Johnson Will Be A Bust: 2025 Rookie Film Analysis

Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson is a highly regarded RB prospect in the 2025 NFL Draft class, and many dynasty fantasy football managers are likely considering using a pick in the first two rounds to select the back, who finished his 2024 season with 240 carries for 1,537 yards (averaging 6.4 yards per carry) and 21 touchdowns. These are impressive numbers, and in the Big 10 conference no less.

Football is still a team sport, though, so it's important to dive into the film and try to see what the driving factors are behind a player's production. Prevailing wisdom generally says we should credit a player for his production, but the offense they're in, the blocking schemes, and the offensive line play are big factors as well. Even how a teams tight ends and receivers block is important.

Volume and efficiency are important as well, but Johnson checks those boxes with a healthy rushing average. 22 catches for 188 yards and two more scores helps as well. So why will he be a bust? There are aspects of his game that are deeply concerning that don't show up unless you watch the film, which I'll break down below with explanations. These takes won't be very popular, and might upset readers who are convinced that Johnson will be a great running back in the league, but let's dive in anyway.

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1. The Majority Of Johnson's Big Plays Were The Result Of Elite Blocking

While I haven't yet posted film breakdowns of all the major prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft class, I've independently studied the film of most of the running back, wide receiver, and tight end prospects that ranked in the top 48 of FantasyPros rookie dynasty fantasy football rankings for 2025. The biggest thing that jumped out to me about Johnson's film was that the run-blocking he had was, by far, the best I had seen of any RB prospect in the last few seasons.

A huge portion of Johnson's big runs come on plays where the blocking is executed so well that the defenders didn't have a chance to make a strong tackle attempt before he ran past them. There were constantly massive, gaping holes opened up in the defensive line, and linebackers were forced to match up with him already running at full speed, since on these runs, he was rarely contacted with much force at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Pause most of his big runs and see how much green grass he has in front of him. Iowa's offensive line and run blocking were insane. pic.twitter.com/tLezUglVN9

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025

Johnson racked up massive yardage, often picking up multiple explosive plays, purely on reps where there were vast swaths of real estate in front of him.

Great blocking again opens up a huge hole. Two defenders are blocked well enough that they barely get a hand on him. More green grass to run through pic.twitter.com/aZo5nGkS4L

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025

It was quite striking going through his highlight reel and watching how great the blocking was on all his explosive plays. There were times where he would slip (mostly weak) tackle attempts for extra yardage, a few reps of him powering through wrap up tackles, and he showed solid power at times, but those were drowned in an ocean of him just running through wide open field.

There's some solid bend on this run, but it's mostly good blocking on the edges + 3 Minnesota defenders somehow all being in the same place and barely touching him pic.twitter.com/kvDMFqSuBI

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025

We should credit him for the little wiggle to avoid the defenders, but usually there were nice creases for him to fit through and break to the next level. I took a lot of clips from the same game just because of how striking they were. Pretty much any running back who runs faster than a 4.7 would look great with this level of blocking in front of him.

Anatomy of a big Kaleb Johnson run:
-Green, green grass pic.twitter.com/xyQn4bHwnA

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025

I should note here, and it's important -- the fact that Johnson had elite blocking doesn't make him a bad player in and of itself, but these runs don't tell us a whole lot about how he'll play at the next level. No NFL team since the 2014 Dallas Cowboys has been able to open up such massive holes for their backs, at least that I can remember. Even the 2024 Philadelphia Eagles weren't quite this good relative to their competition. NFL defenses are much more disciplined and have far more athletic defenders than college teams.

It's more that his huge production was, I believe, largely the result of the offensive line play, run-blocking schemes, and play design. All of this allowed Johnson to rack up massive yardage, often without being touched, having to break strong tackle attempts, being forced into tough one-on-one's with linebackers without an easy outlet, and the like.

2. Johnson Has Poor Vision And Makes Bad Decisions

Here's where we dive into what I think makes Johnson a bad running back. For starters, on film, I see a lot of plays where I just don't know what Johnson is doing. Below, he takes a reception and seemingly ignores the defender he just saw he needed to dodge. Before the catch, he has a clear view of defender No. 20, yet seems to ignore that and where his blocker is trying to move the other defender.

What an RB does after the catch usually dictates how much volume they'll get. Kaleb sees No. 20 unblocked before he catches the ball. It looks like No. 87 expected to block his guy to the outside and have Kaleb cut in. Not sure what Kaleb is doing here. pic.twitter.com/m4kecV3uRD

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025

It really looks like the play design has the blocker attempting to block defender No. 6, for Johnson to put a move back inside, and to have the space to run away from No. 20. Instead, Johnson does no such thing, and just runs into his tackler. I can't blame the play design here, because Johnson doesn't seem to follow it.

Most of the draft analysis I've seen for Johnson praises his vision, but I disagree that waiting for your blocks to develop and seeing the wide-open crease should be praised. Even on plays where Johnson was given good blocking, but he had to make a quick decision what crease to take, he often failed spectacularly.

My biggest problem with Kaleb is that when the offensive line doesn't open up big holes for him, he does basically NOTHING. He's praise for his vision, but he can't even try to bounce this one outside. The correct play is to follow No. 85 and try to make the 1st defender miss. pic.twitter.com/PU2bnTc8Ro

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025

I don't see why an RB with elite vision wouldn't just try to bounce it outside once he saw that the middle of the field wasn't open. Johnson has time when he sees defender No. 97 clog the hole to try to bounce it outside, where there's a lot more space. I don't know that he has great vision. I think he mostly just waits for his blocks to develop in the hope that he'll get more gaping holes to run through. You can technically excuse this as a good play by the defense, but Johnson is supposed to have elite vision. I just don't see it.

I acknowledge that Kaleb Johnson's stats were insane. 14 rushes for 120 yards and 2 TDs is great. But some of his reps are just horrible. 85 throws a great block. Massive real estate to the left. Johnson runs into his lineman's ass though. pic.twitter.com/RlP70u1mWG

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025

The above rep doesn't have any excuse. The scheme and blocking opens up a ton of real estate on the left side. Why is Johnson running into the ass of his lineman here? He throws an excellent block so the defense can't seal the edge. At the part of the clip where I paused it, Johnson looks like he's about to bounce it outside, and his body has the right leverage for it, but instead he crashes directly into his blocker. Not to mention, had he saw the defender coming for him, he should have known to make that move anyway.

Misses a decent size crease on the right side here to run into his lineman's ass again pic.twitter.com/QbSUfyL4Yk

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025

I don't know if he has a very, very bad habit of missing creases that the line blocks for him to run right into the back side of his blockers, or if he just doesn't see them in real time when they aren't huge. It's hard for me to blame the run-blocking here. It's Johnson's job, and it will be in the NFL as well, for him to identify when and where the blocking is good and take advantage of it.

3. Johnson Is A Poor Tackle Breaker And Has Poor Contact Balance

Many draft profiles have praised Johnson for being a great tackle-breaker. I see a lot of clips of him slipping tackles from partially blocked players or those that are falling to the ground after being blocked. Those who don't get more than an arm on him are often not able to bring him down. Sometimes.

Get a hand on Kaleb Johnson's foot and that's usually all you need to take him down. He seems to get tripped often with ease. pic.twitter.com/JWfellz5DN

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025

Johnson's penchant for falling down after simple trip attempts was seriously concerning. He left a lot of yards on the field, even in games where he was productive, because he struggles to deal with his lower legs being contacted at all.

Kaleb Johnson is not a good tackle breaker. Crumples like a paper crane on a lot of tackles in his film. The one clip of the guy hanging off him convinced everyone otherwise, though. But he's just not a good prospect. pic.twitter.com/PKVtTogUDU

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 17, 2025

Good NFL running backs need to be able to handle trip attempts. When defenders are falling to the ground or significantly out of position to make tackles, their last resort is usually a trip attempt. You want to see your back avoid these as much as possible, because they can really kill production.

Breece Hall 62 YARDS IN A FLASH ⚡

(via @nyjets)pic.twitter.com/H3tp0X0YcD

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 23, 2022

Johnson does no such thing. I wasn't able to find many clips of his lower leg or foot being contacted and driven off course, and him having the balance to recover. In my study, I often saw multiple plays per game where Johnson had zero answers against trips. He's 6-foot-0 and 225 pounds, so he should have the strength to be able to maintain his contact balance more.

For how much he's praised for his tackle breaking, Kaleb Johnson seems to go down every time he's tripped. Just get a hand on his leg and you can bring him down. OL opens up a huge hole that could've been a massive run here. pic.twitter.com/gbzjyHTJ17

— JohnJohn Analysis (@JohnJohnalytics) March 20, 2025

Sure, there are only three trips here. Two of them were in the same game, though. And this is not something you want to see from a player you use a first or second-round pick in rookie drafts on.

4. Johnson Doesn't Have The Athleticism To Make Up For His Weaknesses

It's not an immediate death sentence for a running back's fantasy value if they're not able to run fast. We see RBs like Los Angeles Rams' Kyren Williams put up huge fantasy seasons and earn massive volume in their backfields despite running in the high 4.5's in their 40-yard dashes. But they have to make up for their lack of speed with other skills, like elusiveness, vision, durability, short-area quickness, and the like.

Johnson did have a lot of plays where he ran away from opposing linebackers and defensive backs, but that's not something you can get away with in the NFL at his speed. The defenders are much faster, much stronger, and much quicker than they are in college.

Iowa RB Kaleb Johnson runs a 4.57 40 yard dashpic.twitter.com/PilxMIUyxW

— Pick 6 Pack (@Pick6PackFB) March 1, 2025

This is more of a nitpick. It's just that I think backs with such poor vision who aren't particularly elusive in the open field, can't break strong tackle attempts, and have other negative qualities like these can make up for them with extreme athleticism, at least for a time. Johnson doesn't have those. The backs that are a danger to score long touchdowns, like Johnson was in college, on plays with good run-blocking or mistakes made by the defense in the NFL are those who run much, much faster.

"Achane with an A+ effort and a touchdown by Miami!" - Jim Nantz@MiamiDolphins are running away with this one pic.twitter.com/uCNa8kqkUk

— NFL on CBS 🏈 (@NFLonCBS) December 23, 2024

There won't be many defensive backs in the league that won't be able to run down Johnson with ease.

5. In A Stacked Running Back Class, There Are So Many Better Options

I'm aware that I can't prove that all of the above plays aren't cherry-picked. I hoped that most of them being from one game would be revealing, though it's not possible for me to go through every one of his reps in his senior season, so that's an issue, too. And this next point won't be one I can "prove" either, because I don't have time to run through all permutations of tape for every other back.

But after watching hundreds of hours of film, I strongly believe there are at least five running backs who would be better selections and have lower ADPs, either slightly or significantly.

RJ Harvey has elite lateral quickness in tight spaces.

Forced 69 missed tackles placing him 8th in all of college football.

His 22 rushing touchdowns was 3rd most in 2024 pic.twitter.com/qGdc2v84GN

— PeteNova (@SuperrNova38) January 27, 2025

There's UCF running back RJ Harvey, who is more elusive, has much better lateral agility, is a significantly better athlete, is more explosive and always seems to make the right decisions behind the line of scrimmage. I have yet to see a rep of him missing an open crease to run into his lineman's ass. He's also a very capable juker in the open field.

Bhayshul Tuten is a big play waiting to happen pic.twitter.com/JYljankqym

— Billy M (@BillyM_91) March 8, 2025

Virginia Tech running back Bhayshul Tuten is an elite athlete with fantastic curvilinear acceleration, who's also very elusive in the open field and is a much stronger tackle-breaker. The third clip shows the last point well. He gets hit so hard his head snaps back, yet remains upright.

Brashard Smith Folks 📈🔥 #NFLDraft2025 #TheDraftStartsInMOBILE pic.twitter.com/BlZ3O5gDme

— NFL Draft (@NFLDraftOG) January 29, 2025

SMU RB Brashard Smith is incredibly dangerous in any kind of space, with great acceleration and high top-end speed. He's on the smaller side, but he's a converted receiver, so his PPR upside could be massive. He often ran routes at WR and could be a nightmare running routes out of the backfield.

Cam Skattebo is good https://t.co/0X4c9OmPhg pic.twitter.com/dqgM9mqeqz

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) March 20, 2025

Arizona State running back Cam Skattebo is probably slower than Johnson, but he's a monster in the open field, and is very strong and has fantastic contact balance. He's also highly elusive.

Dylan Sampson is a touchdown machine.

He put up 22 TDs on 5.8 yards per carry in 2024, forcing 83 missed tackles with 929 yards after contact.

Sampson is extremely strong at the goalline despite only being listed at 5’11, 201lbs. Adding more strength will help clean up fumbles. pic.twitter.com/ILSaw4BuNW

— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) February 1, 2025

Tennessee running back Dylan Sampson is an underrated tackle-breaker with elite top-end speed, though his acceleration is a small concern. He was also utilized heavily at the goal line, so he could be a three-down back at the next level. Even if he isn't, he's a big play waiting to happen, owing to his speed, elusiveness, and ability to slam on the brakes and change direction quickly.

I'd take any of these guys over Johnson. I don't think the Iowa star will be worth drafting in any of the first three rounds of rookie drafts, considering the volume of good prospects below him.

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