X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

K-Rate Risers and Fallers for Week 11: Buy or Sell?

RotoBallers, as always, we’re constantly trying to come up with new features that will help you dominate your fantasy leagues. Recently, we’ve built a tool that identifies the biggest trends in a pitcher's strikeout rate over the last thirty days. The tool is for Premium subscribers only, and can be found here.

Missing bats is the #1 way a pitcher can control his own fate. If hitters make contact, the pitcher is largely at the mercy of the atmosphere, the weather, the ball park, the ability/work ethic of his fielders, and sometimes just sheer luck. This is ultimately why strikeouts are so important.

Editor's Note: RotoBaller offers the best Premium MLB Subscription - only $1.99 per week. All the tools you need to help win your seasonal and daily leagues: Hitter & Pitcher Streamers, Matchup Ratings for every player, Under-the-Radar Surgers for AVG, HR, Ks, plus daily DFS Cheat Sheets, Lineup Picks, Expert Lineups, Stacks and Avoids. 

By looking at pitchers with positive trends in their strikeout rate, we can spot improving or declining pitchers. If the K-rate is improving, but the ERA and WHIP are less than ideal, it can present a buying opportunity. On the flip side, you may want to sell a pitcher with a declining K-rate, if he wasn't supposed to be that good to begin with.

What this tool provides is a quick indicator of players who might be on the rise, coming out of slumps, or seeing their fantasy value quickly declining, etc. This particular article will focus on two strikeout rate risers and two fallers, and make an attempt to determine how you should treat each pitcher.  Because this tool is refreshed daily, the numbers in this article may be slightly off from the tool. Now, let's get rowdy.

 

K-Rate Risers

Jacob deGrom, NYM

Season K-Rate: 24%, Last 30 K-Rate: 33%

Many were a tad worried about deGrom earlier this season, after his fastball showed up in 2016 almost two MPH slower than last year. While he has still been extremely effective with the reduced velocity (2.82 ERA, 1.15 WHIP), it was certainly affecting his strikeouts early in the campaign. But it seems deGrom has finally figured out how to generate the swing and misses with a tad slower fastball. Over his last three starts, he has struck out 28 in only 19 innings.

There is probably no chance that you'd be able to talk your way into acquiring deGrom in your fantasy league due to just a few less strikeouts this early into the season. But at least this uptick in his K rate can put his owners minds to ease, and assure them to stay put with the young ace.

 

Matt Shoemaker, LAA

Season K-Rate: 24%, Last 30 K-Rate: 33%

Shoemaker is on the verge of a huge second half in 2016. He currently owns a 4.76 ERA, but his 3.42 FIP shows that his .325 BABIP and 67.2 LOB% have been rather unlucky. This season Shoemaker has allowed a career low 71.4 Contact%, while causing a career high 14.2 SwStr%. This can be attributed to a new pitch selection, which has seen a 9% decrease in fastballs, and a 13% increase in his change-up. The change-up has been Shoemaker's money pitch this season, and its 5.0 wCH value ranks top ten in the league, sandwiched between Stephen Strasburg and Chris Sale.

Including a gem last night against Oakland, Shoemaker has struck out 18 batters in his last two starts, allowing only one earned run over 14 innings. Like I stated previously, Shoemaker is going to have a monster second half this season and it would behoove you to acquire him in your fantasy leagues now, especially if he is still sitting on your waiver wire.

 

K-Rate Fallers

Jaime Garcia, STL

Season K-Rate: 20%, Last 30 K-Rate: 10%

Things have gotten ugly for Garcia recently. Through three starts in June, he has only totaled seven strikeouts. What is most discouraging about this stat is the fact that those three match-ups were against Houston, Cincinnati, and Milwaukee, all whom are ranked top ten in the league for most strikeouts this season. His SwStr% has now dropped to 8.8, which is Garcia's lowest since 2008. If you take a look at his heatmaps for the first two months of 2016 versus his three starts in June, you will see that while the control is still there, the command is slipping.

Untitled1

Garcia is still throwing strikes (four BB allowed in last three starts), but as you can see is having trouble keeping the ball out of the middle of the strike zone compared to the first two months which saw Garcia getting the ball up and down to keep hitters off guard. This would explain why along with not racking up strike outs over his last three starts, he has also allowed 26 hits during the same stretch.

Last year, Garcia also struggled with missing bats during the first half of the season, but was able to raise it back up to his career average over the second half. This could very well be the case again in 2016, and the veteran could just be going through a little slump in June. I wouldn't be desperately looking to get rid of him in fantasy leagues yet, but at the same time, he is certainly not a pitcher I would be looking to acquire at this point.

 

 

Masahiro Tanaka, NYY

Season K-Rate: 19%, Last 30 K-Rate: 13%

Since returning from Tommy John surgery last season, Tanaka has seen his strike out rates slowly dwindle from his impressive 9.31 K/9 showing in his first MLB season. This season has seen his K/9 drop down to 6.60, even after a great performance yesterday against the Twins. If you look at Tanaka's pitch selection for 2016, you will see a huge change from the two previous seasons. So far this year, he has thrown his four seam fastball just 2.6% of the time, compared to 19.4% in 2015 and 25.1% in 2016. But with the drastic decrease in the fastball, has come an increase in his splitter, which he is now throwing for one-third of his pitches (well ahead of any other pitcher in the league). This would explain the large spike in his GB% which is now over 52% for the season, and could also help explain the lack of strikeouts. It seems that Tanaka has taken to a new approach on the mound, one more aligned with a ground-ball pitcher. This is made fairly obvious when comparing his pitch locations from 2014 to those in this season. Keep in mind that 32.4% of the pitches on the second heat map are splitters.

1Untitled

Generally, such a dramatic decline in a pitchers strikeout rate would have owners trying to sell before the increase in contact begins to turn into more balls landing over the fences. But in this particular case, the drop in strikeouts from Tanaka could create a very nice buy-low opportunity for the fantasy owners that are less in need of strikeouts and more in need of ERA and WHIP help. Even though it is not quite the Tanaka we were expecting after what we saw in 2014, he is finding great success with this new approach in 2016, and you can expect that to continue for the rest of the season.

 

Live Expert Q&A Chats - Every Weekday @ 1 PM and 6 PM EST (DFS)

Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-55" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Gary Trent Jr.13 mins ago

Available For Game 1 Against Pacers
Taurean Prince18 mins ago

Returns To Bucks Lineup Saturday
NFL26 mins ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Waived With Non-Football Injury
Isaiah Stewart26 mins ago

To Return For Game 1
Ausar Thompson31 mins ago

Available For Game 1
Rui Hachimura39 mins ago

On Track To Play Saturday
Austin Reaves45 mins ago

Ready To Go For Game 1
NFL47 mins ago

Bills Release Armani Rogers, Branson Deen
Luka Dončić51 mins ago

Luka Doncic Removed From Injury Report
Brandon Young55 mins ago

Set To Make MLB Debut On Saturday
LeBron James59 mins ago

Listed As Probable For Game 1
Ben Sheppard1 hour ago

Probable For Saturday's Game 1
Jacob Lopez1 hour ago

Recalled From Triple-A
NFL1 hour ago

Kolton Miller Absent From Raiders' Voluntary Offseason Program
Kevin Durant1 hour ago

To Houston Already Losing Steam
Matt Canterino1 hour ago

Twins Designate Matt Canterino For Assignment
Lauri Markkanen1 hour ago

Wants To Stay With The Jazz
NFL2 hours ago

Ross Blacklock Let Go By New York
Mickey Gasper2 hours ago

Sent To Triple-A St. Paul
Bennedict Mathurin2 hours ago

Expected To Play In Game 1 Saturday
Nicky Lopez2 hours ago

Designated For Assignment
Josh Smith2 hours ago

Still Out Of Lineup Friday Night
Pascal Siakam2 hours ago

Available For Playoff Opener
Zach Neto2 hours ago

Reinstated From Injury List, Will Make Season Debut Friday
Tyrese Haliburton2 hours ago

Returning From Two-Game Absence Saturday
Cade Cunningham2 hours ago

Available For Game 1 Against Knicks
Shohei Ohtani2 hours ago

Out Of Friday's Lineup For Birth Of First Child
Josh Hart2 hours ago

Back In Knicks Lineup Saturday
Eugenio Suárez2 hours ago

Eugenio Suarez Hits Grand Slam In Friday Afternoon's Loss
OG Anunoby2 hours ago

Good To Go For Game 1
Ian Happ2 hours ago

Hits Grand Slam In Massive Day At The Plate
Jalen Brunson2 hours ago

Available For Saturday's Game 1
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2 hours ago

Suspended For One Game, Will Appeal And Is Playing Friday
Karl-Anthony Towns2 hours ago

Returning To Action Saturday
Kyle Tucker3 hours ago

Hits Go-Ahead Homer In Cubs Win
Pelle Larsson3 hours ago

Good To Go Friday
Nikola Jović3 hours ago

Nikola Jovic Available Friday
Carson Kelly3 hours ago

Crushes Two Homers In Crazy Cubs Win
NFL3 hours ago

Raiders Considering Drafting A Quarterback
Irv Smith3 hours ago

Sticking With Texans
Ryan Lindgren3 hours ago

Set To Return Saturday
NFL3 hours ago

Texans Expected To Draft Wide Receivers
Greg Dortch3 hours ago

Returning To Cardinals
Josh Manson3 hours ago

Available For Game 1
Mark Andrews4 hours ago

Could Be Traded Soon
Ondrej Palat4 hours ago

To Return For Start Of Playoffs
David Savard4 hours ago

Will Retire After Playoffs
Gavin Sheets4 hours ago

In Padres Lineup Against Astros
NFL4 hours ago

Raiders, Falcons Could Have Interest In Jalen Ramsey
Robert Thomas4 hours ago

Good To Go Saturday
Shea Langeliers4 hours ago

Back In Lineup On Friday
Matthew Tkachuk4 hours ago

Expected To Return For Game 1
4 hours ago

Raiders Are High On Ashton Jeanty
Alex Verdugo4 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff In Season Debut On Friday
Jason Robertson4 hours ago

Considered Week-To-Week
Rome Odunze4 hours ago

To Hopefully Get More Involved
Dylan Moore4 hours ago

Not In Lineup On Friday
NFL4 hours ago

Dolphins Could Draft A Quarterback
Parker Meadows4 hours ago

Cleared To Begin Throwing Program
James Cook5 hours ago

Could Stay Away From Voluntary Workouts
Chandler Simpson5 hours ago

Called Up By Rays
Alex Bregman6 hours ago

Back From Paternity Leave
Noah Davis6 hours ago

Dodgers Recall Noah Davis From Triple-A
Leon Draisaitl12 hours ago

Wins First Rocket Richard Trophy
Nikita Kucherov12 hours ago

Bags Third Art Ross Trophy
Bryan Rust12 hours ago

Scores Twice In Season-Ending Win
Igor Shesterkin12 hours ago

Shuts Out Lightning With 27 Saves
Dylan Cozens12 hours ago

Picks Up Three Points In Regular-Season Finale
Matvei Michkov12 hours ago

Caps Off Rookie Campaign With Three-Point Effort
Brady Tkachuk13 hours ago

Makes Early Exit For Precautionary Reasons
Jake Tonges21 hours ago

Signs Exclusive-Rights Tender
Denver Broncos21 hours ago

Broncos To Focus On RB Position In Next Week's Draft
Drew Lock21 hours ago

Sam Howell, Drew Lock Expected To Compete For Backup Job
New York Giants21 hours ago

Giants Leaning Toward Taking Best Player Available At No. 3
New Orleans Saints21 hours ago

Ryan Ramczyk Announces His Retirement
Buffalo Bills22 hours ago

Tre'Davious White Reunites With Buffalo
Aaron Rodgers22 hours ago

Willing To Play For $10 Million A Year
Jakob Chychrun1 day ago

Returns Against Penguins
Rasmus Andersson1 day ago

Out Against Kings
Jonathan Huberdeau1 day ago

Sits Out Regular-Season Finale
Ryan Pulock1 day ago

Out On Thursday
Jake Sanderson1 day ago

Back In Action Thursday
Thomas Chabot1 day ago

To Be Rested Against Hurricanes
Claude Giroux1 day ago

Active On Thursday
Lucas Glover2 days ago

Looks To Rebound After Poor Performance
Daniel Berger2 days ago

Looking To Continue Solid Play At RBC
Sepp Straka2 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At RBC
Justin Thomas2 days ago

Looking To Shake Off Poor Masters At RBC Heritage
Xander Schauffele2 days ago

Still Looking For Year's First Win At RBC Heritage
Maverick McNealy2 days ago

Is An Intriguing Play At RBC Heritage
Shane Lowry2 days ago

Looks To Shake Off Poor Masters Sunday At RBC Heritage
Will Zalatoris2 days ago

Eyes A Bounce-Back At RBC Heritage
Gary Woodland3 days ago

Could Add Some Surprise At Hilton Head
Sam Burns3 days ago

Hoping For Better Times At RBC Heritage
Sahith Theegala3 days ago

Still Trying To Put It All Together
Aaron Rai3 days ago

Might Be That Guy For Hilton Head
Robert MacIntyre3 days ago

All Or Nothing At RBC Heritage
Tom Hoge3 days ago

Still Playing Solid Heading To Hilton Head
Nick Dunlap3 days ago

Continues To Have Rough Stretch
Keegan Bradley3 days ago

Looks To Move On From Masters Performance
Matt Fitzpatrick3 days ago

A Boom-Or-Bust Option At RBC Heritage
Patrick Cantlay3 days ago

A Strong Play At RBC Heritage
Jordan Spieth3 days ago

Targets Another Strong RBC Heritage Showing
Collin Morikawa3 days ago

Eyeing Victory At RBC Heritage
Max Homa3 days ago

Breaks Through At The Masters
Alexander Volkanovski4 days ago

Reclaims Featherweight Title
Diego Lopes4 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC 314
Paddy Pimblett4 days ago

Remains Undefeated In The UFC
Michael Chandler4 days ago

Suffers TKO Loss
MMA4 days ago

Patricio Freire Gets Dominated In His UFC Debut
Yair Rodriguez4 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Bryce Mitchell4 days ago

Gets Submitted At UFC 314
Jean Silva4 days ago

Gets Submission Win At UFC 314
Dominick Reyes4 days ago

Wins Third Fight In A Row
Austin Dillon4 days ago

Nabs His First Top-10 Finish Of The 2025 Season At Bristol
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Bold Strategies Fall Flat, Still Musters A Top-Five Finish At Bristol
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Finishes In The Top 10 After Falling Back Midway At Bristol
Ty Gibbs4 days ago

Earns His First Top-Five Finish Of The 2025 Season At Bristol
Chase Briscoe4 days ago

Quietly Scores First Career Top-Five Finish At Bristol
William Byron5 days ago

Denny Hamlin Cuts Into William Byron's Points Lead
William Byron5 days ago

Makes Best Of His Mediocre Qualifying Run With Sixth-Place Finish
Alex Bowman5 days ago

Despite Engine Failure, Alex Bowman's Improved Speed Looks Promising
NASCAR5 days ago

A.J. Allmendinger Enters Playoff Picture With Surprise Bristol Top-10 Finish
Kyle Larson6 days ago

Will Compete For The Win At Bristol
Chase Elliott6 days ago

Is One Of The More Favorable DFS Options Available For Bristol
William Byron6 days ago

Is A Solid DFS Option For Bristol Lineups
Tyler Reddick6 days ago

Could Tyler Reddick Be A Sneaky DFS Option For Bristol?
NASCAR6 days ago

Is Bubba Wallace Worth Rostering For Bristol This Week?
Ross Chastain6 days ago

Could Ross Chastain Be A Worthy DFS Choice For Bristol?
Carson Hocevar6 days ago

Is Carson Hocevar Worth Rostering For Bristol DFS Lineups?
NASCAR6 days ago

Should Fantasy Managers Avoid Rostering A.J. Allmendinger In DFS For Bristol?
Ryan Preece6 days ago

Is Ryan Preece Worth Rostering For Bristol Lineups?
Austin Dillon6 days ago

May Be One Of The Top Value Options For Bristol DFS This Week
Noah Gragson6 days ago

Should DFS Players Consider Noah Gragson For Bristol Lineups?
Riley Herbst6 days ago

Is In Play For Bristol DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF