K.J. Osborn (WR, MIN) - Fantasy Football Waiver Wire Pickups

BALLER MOVE: Add in 14+ Team Leagues

OWNED IN: 1% of Leagues

ANALYSIS: If forced to project who would be the Vikings' top-two receivers in Week 1, 99% of Earth's population would choose Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen. While that will be the case more often than not, it was a different story on Sunday. K.J. Osborn, a 5th-round pick in last year's draft, trailed only Thielen after hauling in 7-of-9 targets for 76 yards in the Vikings' 24-27 overtime loss to the Cincinnati Bengals. Osborn was limited to special teams as a rookie, playing on 119 snaps and none on offense, but a strong showing in the preseason and a season-ending injury to Chad Beebe has catapulted him to the WR3 in Minnesota.

At first glance, it's easy to assume there won't be enough volume to go around for this offense to support three fantasy-relevant receivers until you realize there are 103 vacated targets left behind by the combination of Beebe, Kyle Rudolph, and Irv Smith Jr. (6.4 targets per game). Sure, some of those will go to Tyler Conklin and yes, Dalvin Cook will get targets out of the backfield, but there is definitely room for a third receiver to produce. When push comes to shove, Kirk Cousins may not have a choice but to look Osborn's way early and often.

According to Pro Football Focus, Osborn ran 37 of his routes (68.4%) from the slot in Week 1 and saw an Average Depth of Target (ADOT) of 6.4. After going back four years and sampling more than 40,000 targets, Mike Tagliere of FantasyPros (#TagsStrong) found that slot targets are worth 5.5% more valuable than perimeter targets in Half-PPR and even more in full PPR. This bodes well for Osborn's ability to provide a safe floor for those playing 14+ team leagues.

With a Week 2 matchup against the Cardinals on deck, the Vikings could be forced to air it out 40+ times once again and Cousins will likely need to get the ball out quick with Chandler Jones breathing down his neck. All signs point to Osborn being the recipient of a bevy of short passes in a negative game script in Week 2. Get on board before it's too late.

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